Why?
Nothing is clearer than an election result to signal the mood of the nation. Vox populi, the people have spoken.
Why is it that we accept the people's verdict that the Liberal party no longer has the favour of the nation and that the Conservatives do indeed have the confidence of the majority of Canadians in ROC. These truths are self-evident.
Why then is the results of the Bloc's demise somehow portrayed as anything less than a rejection of their philosophy?
Somehow I get the impression that we are living a perverse version of the childrens' tale of the 'Emperor and his New Clothes, 'where nobody is willing to admit what is patently obvious.
Separatist apologists are pinning the defeat as merely a shift in strategy, a decision by the people to repatriate the sovereignty question to Quebec, where it rightfully belongs. Even if that were true, it signals that the twenty year experiment of separatist representation in Ottawa has been a monumental failure, hardly a success by any measure.
First, let me clarify that when I say that sovereignty is dead, I don't mean that the sovereignty movement will disappear.
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| So long Gilles, close the door behind you... |
If you're a high school student now, rest assured, that when it comes to cash your old-age pension, you'll still hear sovereignists arguing that 'winning conditions' are just around the corner!
The results of last week's federal election didn't change anything, but did serve as a confirmation that Quebeckers have tired of the sovereignty argument. In dispatching the Bloc from Ottawa the people are sending the clearest of messages, that sovereignty and its discussion no longer interest them.
A poll last year determined that over 70% of Quebeckers don't believe that sovereignty can be achieved. I daresay that if that poll were repeated today the number will have risen dramatically and the issue of sovereignty has become for most Quebeckers a case of beating a dead horse.
Gilles Duceppe and his supporters pulled out all the stops in the final days of the campaign, warning Quebeckers of the dire consequences of voting against the Bloc. He told them that they risked their future, they would be diminished and that they in fact had a sacred obligation to vote for sovereignty.
Quebeckers showed that they are no longer swayed by these arguments. They showed that they cannot be guilted into supporting a unrealizable fantasy. Those in the Bloc cannot escape the reality that voters were so tired of supporting a losing concept, that in one particular riding, they voted for an absentee, unilingual anglo from a far off region to represent their riding, rather than someone advancing the separatist option. 'Comeuppance' is the only word that accurately describes the humiliation.
Sovereignty is dead because the window of opportunity has closed.
Since the last referendum, over 500,000 immigrants have made a home in Quebec (more than that came, but many left to greener pastures in the ROC,) making up for a falling falling population due to a generalized reduced Quebecois birth rate.
The vast majority of these new Quebeckers are NO voters, which means that all things remaining equal, the NO's have picked up around 5-7% additional votes in any potential referendum.
Every five or so years, this phenomenon changes the YES/NO dynamic by another 2% or so, in favour of the NO's.
There was a time that sovereignists believed that while first generation immigrants would massively vote NO in a referendum, the second and third generation, once assimilated will mirror more closely native-born voting patterns. That hasn't exactly worked out at all, with immigrants farther down the evolutionary line maintaining their federalist bias.
As things stand today, 64% of francophones would have to vote YES in a referendum for sovereignty to pass, considering the Anglo and Ethnic vote.
Each year that passes sees that number increase by about ½ of 1%. Shifting demographics{FR}
But even in the Francophone community, the sovereignty option has been badly on the decline.
Some of the decline can be credited to fatigue and some to the realization that Quebec is economically privileged by remaining in Canada.
And so to most Quebeckers, the idea of electing a new sovereignist PQ government that will ultimately hold another losing referendum, is about as enticing as a trip to the dentist. While sovereignists believe the losing exercise worthwhile, most Quebeckers cringe at the idea, realizing that after every losing referendum, Quebec is further diminished.
The NDP victory in last week's election signals that if he plays his cards right, Francois Legault can win the next provincial election with a fledgling new party (the operative word being 'new.')
The federal election proved that you don't need content or candidates, you just need to tap in to the emerging sentiment. Mr. Legault could run cardboard cutouts of himself in each riding and he would win a solid majority.
Mr. Legault will win because he is not Mr. Charest and he is not Madame Marois. In other words, Mr. Legault is not incompetent and corrupt as many Quebeckers perceive Charest to be and he is not a separatist as Madame Marois proudly professes to be.
Apparently that's all Quebeckers really want....
All that is left for sovereignists to hope for, is that one burning issue (like Meech Lake or Charlottetown) will ignite a new wave of anger towards Ottawa, an issue that will somehow sweep the province into a fit of rage, presenting those elusive 'winning conditions.'
Madame Marois has even promised that once elected, she will try to bait the federal government into a series of 'chicanes' that will serve that very purpose.
Sorry Pauline, it won't happen, at least not for as long as Mr. Harper is Prime Minister. There won't be a new constitutional debate or discussion or negotiations on any issue that has the potential to rile up the natives. It takes two to tango.
Ottawa realizes that there is nothing that they can offer that will satisfy separatists and that any discussion or negotiation has the potential to set off a tinderbox.
Sound management of the separatist file will neutralize any potential threat.
The federal election didn't kill the sovereignty, it just signalled its demise.
and that's all she wrote...sovereignty is dead.
