Given a choice between the Bloc and the Ndp winning a riding, I'm hoping for the Bloc.
Strange? Perhaps, but the Bloc is a known entity. It's presence in Ottawa is annoying, but not particularly damaging. For twenty years they've twiddled their thumbs and been politically irrelevant.
For the last years, they've prevented the Conservatives from having a majority, something most Canadians actually see as a good thing. Nothing would change with a vote switch to the Ndp, we'll still be left with a minority, but with an Ndp party that will be in a position to make real demands, not a particularly enticing prospect.
God help us if they become the official opposition.
And so I'll take the Bloc, a party that has zero chance of affecting legislation, with no real political agenda other than to annoy and one that is satisfied with doing nothing, happy to bide it's time, building Parliamentary pensions.
There's a joke in Quebec that Anglos would rather vote for the Mafia before voting for a separatist and I daresay it's true. See why Anglos prefer the Mafia to Separatists
That being said, I'd rather see a separatist (with little power to advance a separatist agenda) elected in Ottawa, than a socialist dipper, a party that can wreck actual havoc.
Remember Ontario under Bob Rae?
Today is election day and for most of us who are politically informed, it's a nervous day, especially since we really don't know what is going to happen.
As the cartoon above indicates, voting is a special privilege for those who care and the actual casting of one's ballot is a solemn and thoroughly satisfying experience.
Unfortunately, most of us will end up disappointed, especially in Quebec where there are four strong parties vying for our votes. Basic math tells us that the majority of us will probably have voted for a candidate who loses, but no matter, this is our democracy.
As for voter turnout, I daresay that it might skyrocket from a paltry 59% in the 2008 election, to over 70% this time around. With the very real specter that vote-splitting will affect the outcome of countless ridings, it appears that more than in the past, each vote counts. This coupled with the fact that the polls are all over the place, with nobody really sure of what tomorrow's result will drive participation. People tend to vote more when the conclusion is uncertain.
As for these polls,
The dirty little secret that few pollsters will admit, is that the art of gauging public opinion has become LESS accurate over the last decade or so, for of a variety of reasons, the most important being that the response rate, or the number of people willing to answer questions from pollsters has fallen to about 15% from over 70%. That and the preponderance of wireless phones, (which most pollsters don't call) makes getting an accurate sample much more expensive.
Here's how the pundits did in the last election, not so good by any standard.
Strategic voting is an interesting and purely Canadian concept, I can't imagine it happening too often anywhere else in the world.
The best example of the phenomenon is the riding of Papineau where Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life against the Bloc. With the Conservatives having no chance to win, many of Harperites are swallowing hard and casting a Liberal vote, in an effort to limit the Bloc success. This phenomenon is happening in many ridings across the country.
As for the election all I can do is fantasize along with all of you and hope for the best.
As for my fantasy wish list, here goes;
- I hope Larry Smith gets elected in Montreal's West Island. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not so good.
- I hope Elizabeth May gets elected out in BC's Saanich-Gulf Islands. I really can't stand the Greens, but democracy is served by having some representation in Parliament. May is the only Green with any chance to win. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Good.
- I hope that Saulie Zajdel knocks off Irwin Cotler in Mount-Royal, in Montreal's designated 'Jewish' riding. Cotler is an anachronism from a time when Human rights was an issue. He made one of the very worst appointments to the Supreme Court when he named a family friend, Rosa Abella to the Supreme Court. Abella with a pedigree as a radical women's libber and a veteran of the Ontario Human Right's Commission is everything I don't particularly support. Ugh!..... Cotler also was an MP with one of the lowest attendance records in the last Parliamentary session, absent almost half the time. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - 50/50
- I hope that 'Uncle' Thom Mulcair loses in Outremont, Montreal. Mulcair is the only person running for office in the whole country that I actually hate with a passion. He is an evil, self-serving political rat that would sell his kids for power. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - not a chance
- I hope that Marlene Jennings and Marc Garneau two Montreal Liberal incumabants, both on the bubble, get re-elected. Anything better than the Ndp. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN-Good.
- I hope that Justin Trudeau gets re-elected. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Good
- I hope that Helena Guergis gets re-elected as an independent. Not my favourite person but treated shabbily by Stephen Harper. . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not so Good.
- I hope that Ken Dryden loses his seat in Toronto. Dryden seems to have lost his heart and interest . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Good.
- I hope that Conservative cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon gets re-elected in Pontiac, Anglo-Quebeckers only representation in the Harper cabinet . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not Good.
- In spite of my desire to have the Bloc win against the Ndp, I'll make an exception for Gilles Duceppe who will lose his seat if the Ndp surge holds. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - 50/50
This is another media generated story that has no bearing in fact.
Election Canada has neatly side-stepped the problem by keeping polls open late in the East and closing early in the West.
As it stands, there is only a half hour difference in real time between the time the polls close in the East and West. Consider the time it takes to count ballots and TWITS who want to spill the beans can only affect those voters who choose to vote on the west coast in the last ten minutes before the polls close.
Still think this is a big story? Bah!
By the way, Prince William and his new bride will visit Canada with a stop in Quebec this summer. No doubt the heir to the throne will be met with demonstrating yahoos, but it's interesting to note that he speaks fluent French,. At least three anglo Ndp candidates running in predominantly francophone ridings in Quebec can't speak a word of French. One might even be elected!
NOTE TO READERS;
I will post tomorrow, but not at the usual midnight hour. I'll wait for election results and hope to have a a post out by Noon.