Monday, May 2, 2011

Between the Bloc and the Ndp, I'll take the Bloc

Yes, there I said it.
Given a choice between the Bloc and the Ndp winning a riding, I'm hoping for the Bloc.

Strange? Perhaps, but the Bloc is a known entity. It's presence in Ottawa is annoying, but not particularly damaging. For twenty years they've twiddled their thumbs and been politically irrelevant.

For the last years, they've prevented the Conservatives from having a majority, something most Canadians actually see as a good thing. Nothing would change with a vote switch to the Ndp, we'll still be left with a minority, but with an Ndp party that will be in a position to make real demands, not a particularly enticing prospect.
God help us if they become the official opposition.

And so I'll take the Bloc, a party that has zero chance of affecting legislation, with no real political agenda other than to annoy and one that is satisfied with doing nothing, happy to bide it's time, building Parliamentary pensions.

There's a joke in Quebec that Anglos would rather vote for the Mafia before voting for a separatist and I daresay it's true. See why Anglos prefer the Mafia to Separatists
That being said, I'd rather see a separatist (with little power to advance a separatist agenda) elected in Ottawa, than a socialist dipper, a party that can wreck actual havoc.
Remember Ontario under Bob Rae?

Today is election day and for most of us who are politically informed, it's a nervous day, especially since we really don't know what is going to happen.
As the cartoon above indicates, voting is a special privilege for those who care and the actual casting of one's ballot is a solemn and thoroughly satisfying experience.

Unfortunately, most of us will end up disappointed, especially in Quebec where there are four strong parties vying for our votes. Basic math tells us that the majority of us will probably have voted for a candidate who loses, but no matter, this is our democracy.

As for voter turnout, I daresay that it might  skyrocket from a paltry 59% in the 2008 election, to over 70% this time around. With the very real specter that vote-splitting will affect the outcome of countless ridings, it appears that more than in the past, each vote counts. This coupled with the fact that the polls are all over the place, with nobody really sure of what tomorrow's result will drive participation. People tend to vote more when the conclusion is uncertain.


As for these polls,
 The dirty little secret that few pollsters will admit, is that the art of gauging public opinion has become LESS accurate over the last decade or so, for of a variety of reasons, the most important being that the response rate, or the number of people willing to answer questions from pollsters has fallen to about 15% from  over 70%. That and the preponderance of wireless phones, (which most pollsters don't call) makes getting an accurate sample much more expensive.

Here's how the pundits did in the last election, not so good by any standard.
So much for the experts and their predictions. I am reminded of the old adage that tells us that 'Experts built the Titanic"

Strategic voting is an interesting and purely Canadian concept, I can't imagine it happening too often anywhere else in the world.
The best example of the phenomenon is the riding of Papineau where Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life against the Bloc. With the Conservatives having no chance to win, many of Harperites  are swallowing hard and casting a Liberal vote, in an effort to limit the Bloc success. This phenomenon is happening in many ridings across the country.

As for the election all I can do is fantasize along with all of you and hope for the best.

As for my fantasy wish list, here goes;
  •  I hope Larry Smith gets elected in Montreal's West Island.  CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not so good.
  •  I hope Elizabeth May gets elected out in BC's Saanich-Gulf Islands. I really can't stand the Greens, but democracy is served by having some representation in Parliament. May is the only Green with any chance to win.  CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Good.
  • I hope that Saulie Zajdel knocks off Irwin Cotler in Mount-Royal, in Montreal's designated 'Jewish' riding. Cotler is an anachronism from a time when Human rights was an issue. He made one of the very worst appointments to the Supreme Court when he named a family friend, Rosa Abella to the Supreme Court. Abella with a pedigree as a radical women's libber and a veteran of the Ontario Human Right's Commission is everything I don't particularly support. Ugh!..... Cotler also was an MP with one of the lowest attendance records in the last Parliamentary session, absent almost half the time. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - 50/50
  • I hope that 'Uncle' Thom Mulcair loses in Outremont, Montreal. Mulcair is the only person running for office in the whole country that I actually hate with a passion. He is an evil, self-serving political rat that would sell his kids for power. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - not a chance
  • I hope that Marlene Jennings and Marc Garneau two Montreal Liberal incumabants, both on the bubble, get re-elected. Anything better than the Ndp. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN-Good.
  • I hope that Justin Trudeau gets re-elected. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Good
  • I hope that Helena Guergis gets re-elected as an independent. Not my favourite person but treated shabbily by Stephen Harper. . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not so Good.
  • I hope that Ken Dryden loses his seat in Toronto. Dryden seems to have lost his heart and interest . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN -  Good.
  • I hope that Conservative cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon gets re-elected in Pontiac, Anglo-Quebeckers only representation in the Harper cabinet . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not Good.
  • In spite of my desire to have the Bloc win against the Ndp, I'll make an exception for Gilles Duceppe who will lose his seat if the Ndp surge holds. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - 50/50
Finally  a note about the TWITTER controversy, with many vowing to release election results before polls have closed in the West, contrary to Election Canada rules. LINK
This is another media generated story that has no bearing in fact.
Election Canada has neatly side-stepped the problem by keeping polls open late in the East and closing early in the West.
As it stands, there is only a half hour  difference in real time between the time the polls close in the East and West. Consider the time it takes to count ballots and TWITS who want to spill the beans can only affect those voters who choose to vote on the west coast in the last ten minutes before the polls close.
Still think this is a big story? Bah!

By the way, Prince William and his new bride will visit Canada with a stop in Quebec this summer. No doubt the heir to the throne will be met with demonstrating yahoos, but it's interesting to note that he speaks fluent French,. At least three anglo Ndp candidates running in predominantly francophone ridings in Quebec can't speak a word of French. One might even be elected!

NOTE TO READERS;
I will post tomorrow, but not at the usual midnight hour. I'll wait for election results and hope to have a a post out by Noon.

9 comments:

  1. The fact that Canada still uses plurality voting is a major problem. As Robert mentions above, the Tories still have a chance because the progressive vote NDP, Liberals, can easily end up being split in specific ridings. Of course, if the momentum remains with the NDP the voters may decide to engage in a sort of preferential voting in their own right…

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  2. Any thinking human that would vote NDP at this time in Canadian history will be viewed as an enemy of Canada if Layton becomes the government. Putting that opportunistic SOB at the helm for Canada is frigging criminal.

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  3. Editor, re most of your "predictions" above, Supertramp wrote your song: Dreamer.

    Kotler in Mount Royal and Ken Dryden in York Centre? THEY WILL WIN...LIGHTENING WILL STRIKE THEM BEFORE THEY LOSE! Name the last time Mount Royal even THOUGHT of voting anything other than Liberal. I lived for six years in York Centre, and you can think of it as the retiring grounds for the old Kensington Market dwellers you used to see Al Waxman starring as in King of Kensington.

    The last three Liberal MPs in York Centre? When I moved into the constituency in 1986: Robert Kaplan. By then he was already an old warhorse from the Trudeau years, a cabinet minister very close to Trudeau's vest.

    Next: Art Eggleton, former Toronto mayor and a fave of Jean Chrétien. Always in Chrétien's cabinet, until scandal started to catch up to him.

    Finally: Ken Dryden. Never had to contest for candidacy in that constituency, he was hand picked like fruit by Paul Martin, a shoo in to Martin's cabinet. Maybe he doesn't like Ignatieff (who does?), but it's still a Liberal bastion, and all high profile MPs have been situated there.

    Editor, f--king retarded pregnant cows can be on the Liberal ballot of those two ridings and they'll win, just like PET, the anti-Semite that he was, did so for 20 years. In Mount Royal and York Center, the motto is "better red than dead"!

    Duceppe will likely win, but by a much narrower margin than last time (about 15,000 votes). Liz May? Nice, congenial lady, but no dice.

    Mulcair? Sadly, I agree with you. Disgustingly, he was the MNA for my old stomping grounds in Chomedey, but thankfully after my father sold the family home and we were all long out of Chomedey. He is as big an A.H. as you say!

    There is still a chance Harper will get a majority. With similar statistics, Chrétien won one of his elections in similar fashion. If the NDP vote spreads out (I hope), they won't win that much. If it concentrates in certain constituencies, LOOK OUT! With any luck, the NDP vote will highly concentrate in few ridings, much like the way John James "Goldilocks" Charest lost the 1998 Quebec election. Too much concentration in too few ridings. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending how you look at it), the federal electoral map isn't as imbalanced as Quebec's is.

    The NDP shock of 1990 isn't lost on this Quebec-born and now truly loyal Ontarian, but I guess now the rest of Canada has to see what the consequences and ramifications of the NDP are. With any luck, it won't be an NDP majority and so the affable Jack Layton will be in a dogfight.

    Finally, I heard Iggy state late last night that if he loses, he'll stick around to fight another day. Yeah, WHEN PIGS COULD FLY! He'll be back in the Halls of Ivy so fast, the only way to find out exactly where that will be is to follow the trail of dust he'll leave running there...faster than the cartoon roadrunner! If he doesn't run, the coyotes will sink their fangs deep into his flesh, and devour him! He'll deserve it. I never saw a sonofabitch as condescending as he is!

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  4. Why the Mulcair.....love?

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  5. ...in an afterthought. You seem to like Justin Trudeau. Why? Because his daddy was PM? No doubt he'll one day lead the Liberals (if they survive Ignatieff's screw-ups), it's as inevitable as the next total solar eclipse to come through Canada (April 8, 2024).

    Justin Trudeau has been groomed for the big time, albeit covertly, for at least the last ten years. Chrétien put himself in Justin's pocket during his first political campaigns, so you can bet the big brass will be continuing their long-term mission.

    As far as I'm concerned, one Trudeau was enough, because I see this one being a clone of his father. Like Mulcair, Trudeau was self-serving. Did Canada become a "just" society? What exactly IS a "just" society? Wasn't Canada a "just" society BEFORE his self-proclaimed greatness arrived?

    I think the first thing, if he actually gets the mantle, is Alberta will went to have his gonads for lunch after alienating the west with the National Energy Policy. Giving the people of Salmon Arm, BC the finger was not exactly appropriate.

    It was Trudeau who created deficit after deficit the likes of which have not been seen in Canada since, INCLUDING the inflation-adjusted deficit last year by the Conservatives.

    The PCs during the Mulroney era too showed high deficits, but they did inherit a runaway train of deficits from Trudeau and his constant bail-outs of Liberal friends and their failing businesses. We faced harsh tax increases to stop the treadmill of runaway deficits.

    Another Trudeau in office? I can tell him where to stick HIS finger--rotating it very slowly along the way--sideways!

    If lightening strikes and Duceppe defies the odds and loses, you can be sure who the NEXT PQ leader will be after Marois, whether it's sooner or later. Then he can be like John James "Goldilocks" Charest and collect TWO gold-plated pensions. Duceppe was nuts not to jump ship five years ago. He could have collected his full MP's pension then go another 15 years and get his full MNA's pension. What a retirement HE'D enjoy!

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  6. Thanks for voting Bloc Québécois! You Quebec people do not deserve better anyway to represent yourself at Ottawa.

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  7. "You Quebec people do not deserve better anyway to represent yourself at Ottawa."

    You're an idiot. Plain and simple.

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  8. "Remember Bob Rae"... the guy who was so leftwing that he abandoned every policy his party adopted and then turned tail and joined the Liberals... Uh, why should we remember him?

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  9. You'll take the Bloc, eh? Got a magnifying glass?

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