Honeymoon Soon Over For Jack Layton and Ndp in Quebec

For almost two decades the province of Quebec has been sending Bloc Quebecois members to Ottawa by virtue of a protest vote that grew from the perceived back-stabbing of René-Lévesque by the other Premiers that allowed a new Constitution to be created without the province's consent. The story of that so-called 'betrayal,' known as "The Night of the Long Knives" was burned into the collective memories of Quebeckers and remained the primary motivation for soft nationalists to vote for the Bloc, alongside the more militant, sovereignist element of Quebec society.

Ostensibly, the Bloc was created to protect Quebec's interests in Ottawa, but should that have been the case, they'd have been tossed out years ago for non-performance. After almost two decades in Parliament, the Bloc would be hard pressed to describe one single notable achievement. The fact that the Bloc was largely snubbed and ignored by the ruling government of the day, even in times of a minority government, remains an open secret, one which was largely ignored in Quebec.

In truth, the Bloc's ineffectiveness didn't really matter, it's real function was to remain a thorn in the side of Canadian federalism, a symbol that Quebec aspirations remained unrealized. In that respect nobody can deny that the party fulfilled its function rather well, annoying the heck out of the ROC and causing paralysis in Parliament.

And so the Quebec public and more importantly the French press, filled with zero expectations, have given Gilles Duceppe and his party, a twenty year free ride.

This last election signalled that the mood of the province had shifted rather suddenly and dramatically. The Francophone electorate, for whatever reason, decided to seek a new path.
Perhaps voters tired of the separatist debate or perhaps they believed that tangible results were more important than remaining the pouting child of the Canadian federation. At any rate, voters went for a change and that change was the NDP and the pie-in-the-sky promises of Jack Layton and his political henchman, Thomas Mulcair.

But the mandate to represent Quebec's interests in Ottawa and the challenge to keep the electorate satisfied, will be a task much more difficult for Mr. Layton than it was for Gilles Duceppe, as the extended free pass afforded to the Bloc, will not be offered to the Ndp.

Unlike the Bloc who were expected to produce nothing, expectations are running high for the Ndp, who themselves built up hopes by making a multitude of unrealizable promises.

Perhaps wiser than Mr. Layton, Mr. Duceppe never made any such promises at all, other than to offer the old chestnut, of "Protecting Quebec interests'

Mr Layton, as per his usual election style, made these promises, secure in the knowledge that he'd never have to deliver. Now as opposition leader he is faced with the impossible task of making good on his undertakings.
The three major planks that he offered Quebec, application of Bill 101 to presently-exempt federally chartered institutions in Quebec, mandatory bilingualism for Supreme Court judges and the re-opening of the constitutional debate, have as much chance of flying as pigs do.

Mr. Layton has written political cheques to Quebec that are going to bounce.
When it happens, it won't be pretty.

While the Ndp is enjoying a honeymoon with Quebeckers, it is likely to be short-lived. In fact, it may already be unravelling.
The Press has already crucified the absentee, inexperienced, non-French-speaking element of the Ndp Quebec caucus. Ruth Ellen Brouseau, the poster-girl for these unlikely members has already achieved more negative publicity than an opposition back-bencher can expect in an entire Parliamentary session.

In fact, the Bloc-voting, sovereignist-dominated Press is so enraged by the Ndp success at the polls, they have openly mocked the choice that electors made and have gone so far as to characterize the many Quebeckers who voted for the Ndp as naive and stupid.
And so, perceived by the 'intelligentsia' as illegitimate carpetbaggers, the Ndp is in for a very rough ride.
If you think that the Quebec Press has a hate-on for Harper, watch what is going to happen to Layton when he fails to deliver on his promises.

Hoping for failure, the Press waits impatiently to pounce. Gleefully sharpening their knives, their mouths are salivating with cruel anticipation at the fine meal the 'Dippers' will make once the inevitable futility and impotence of opposition is realized.

When the ultimate comedown happens, it will brutal.
Twelve to eighteen months-tops....

Quebec Humiliated Over Asbestos on the Daily Show

Quebec support for asbestos has come home to roost.
Sometime it's better not to give interviews.    THE DAILY SHOW....... Ouch!

Sovereignty is Dead!

In light of last week's federal election and Quebeckers' massive rejection of the Bloc Quebecois, it is strange that pundits, politicians and those who are generally in the know are falling over themselves to warn us that it would be a mistake to take the results as a sign that sovereignty is somehow diminished.
Why?
Nothing is clearer than an election result to signal the mood of the nation.  Vox populi, the people have spoken.


Why is it that we accept the people's verdict that the Liberal party no longer has the favour of the nation and that the Conservatives do indeed have the confidence of the majority of Canadians in ROC. These truths are self-evident.

Why then is the results of the Bloc's demise somehow portrayed as anything less than a rejection of their philosophy?

Somehow I get the impression that we are living a perverse version of the childrens' tale of the 'Emperor and his New Clothes, 'where nobody is willing to admit what is patently obvious.

Separatist apologists are pinning the defeat as merely a shift in strategy, a decision by the people to repatriate the sovereignty question to Quebec, where it rightfully belongs. Even if that were true, it signals that the twenty year experiment of separatist representation in Ottawa has been a monumental failure, hardly a success by any measure.

First, let me clarify that when I say that sovereignty is dead, I don't mean that the sovereignty movement will disappear.

So long Gilles, close the door behind you...

The movement will soldier on, regardless of the prospects of actually ever achieving its stated goal. Over-represented in the Quebec media, the unions, the civil service, the artistic community and the universities and colleges, the movement will persist. There will always be a respectable measure of support for the independence of Quebec and unlike the Communist Party of Quebec, which pitifully soldiers on to the tune of Marx and Engels with almost zero support, the sovereignists will remain a viable and active force.

If you're  a high school student now, rest assured, that when it comes to cash your old-age pension, you'll still hear sovereignists arguing that 'winning conditions' are just around the corner!

The results of last week's federal election didn't change anything, but did serve as a confirmation  that Quebeckers have tired of the sovereignty argument. In dispatching the Bloc from Ottawa the people are sending the clearest of messages, that sovereignty and its discussion no longer interest them.

A poll last year determined that over 70% of Quebeckers don't believe that sovereignty can be achieved. I daresay that if that poll were repeated today the number will have risen dramatically and the issue of sovereignty has become for most Quebeckers a case of beating a dead horse.

Gilles Duceppe and his supporters pulled out all the stops in the final days of the campaign, warning Quebeckers of the dire consequences of voting against the Bloc. He told them that they risked their future, they would be diminished and that they in fact had a sacred obligation to vote for sovereignty.

Quebeckers showed that they are no longer swayed by these arguments. They showed that they cannot be guilted into supporting a unrealizable fantasy. Those in the Bloc cannot escape the reality that voters  were so tired of supporting a losing concept, that in one particular riding, they voted for  an absentee, unilingual anglo from a far off region to represent their riding, rather than someone advancing the separatist option.  'Comeuppance' is the only word that accurately describes the humiliation.

Sovereignty is dead because the window of opportunity has closed.

Since the last referendum, over 500,000 immigrants have made a home in Quebec (more than that came, but many left to greener pastures in the ROC,)  making up for a falling falling population due to a generalized reduced Quebecois birth rate.
The vast majority of these new Quebeckers are NO voters, which means that all things remaining equal, the NO's have picked up around 5-7%  additional votes in any potential referendum.
Every five or so years, this phenomenon changes the YES/NO dynamic by another 2% or so, in favour of the NO's.
There was a time that sovereignists believed that while first generation immigrants would massively vote NO in a referendum, the second and third generation, once assimilated will mirror more closely native-born voting patterns. That hasn't exactly worked out at all, with immigrants farther down the evolutionary line maintaining their federalist bias.
As things stand today, 64% of francophones would have to vote YES in a referendum for sovereignty to pass, considering the Anglo and Ethnic vote.
Each year that passes sees that number increase by about ½ of 1%. Shifting demographics{FR}

But even in the Francophone community, the sovereignty option has been badly on the decline.
Some of the decline can be credited to fatigue and some to the realization that Quebec is economically privileged by remaining in Canada.

And so to most Quebeckers, the idea of electing a new sovereignist PQ government that will ultimately hold another losing referendum, is about as enticing as a trip to the dentist. While sovereignists believe the losing exercise worthwhile, most Quebeckers cringe at the idea, realizing that after every losing referendum, Quebec is further diminished.

The NDP victory in last week's election signals that if he plays his cards right, Francois Legault can win the next provincial election with a fledgling new party (the operative word being 'new.')
The federal election proved that you don't need content or candidates, you just need to tap in to the emerging sentiment. Mr. Legault could run cardboard cutouts of himself in each riding and he would win a solid majority.
Mr. Legault will win because he is not Mr. Charest and he is not Madame Marois. In other words, Mr. Legault is not incompetent and corrupt as many Quebeckers perceive Charest to be and he is not a separatist as Madame Marois proudly professes to be.

Apparently that's all Quebeckers really want....

All that is left for sovereignists to hope for, is that one burning issue (like Meech Lake or Charlottetown)  will ignite a new wave of anger towards Ottawa, an issue that will somehow sweep the province into a fit of rage, presenting those elusive 'winning conditions.'
Madame Marois has even promised that once elected, she will try to bait the federal government into a series of 'chicanes' that will serve that very purpose.

Sorry Pauline, it won't happen, at least not for as long as Mr. Harper is Prime Minister. There won't be a new constitutional debate or discussion or negotiations on any issue that has the potential to rile up the natives. It takes two to tango.
Ottawa realizes that there is nothing that they can offer that will satisfy separatists and that any discussion or negotiation has the potential to set off a tinderbox.

Sound management of the separatist file will neutralize any potential threat.

The federal election didn't kill the sovereignty, it just signalled its demise.

and that's all she wrote...sovereignty is dead.

Globe & Mail Mulcair Link

We're generating quite a bit of traffic from a link in the comment section of a story in the Globe & Mail. If you're looking for the picture of Thomas Muclair here is the proper link. LINK.

Before you jump to the picture,  check out the humorous (I hope) election sendups below.
Here's some other NDP stories that will interest you;
'Oncle' Tom Mulcair and the NDP More Dangerous Than the Bloc
NDP Joins Forces with Separatists in Anti-English Rally
NDP -'Happy' Jack and 'Oncle' Thom Sell out Anglos
Between the Bloc and the Ndp, I'll take the Bloc
NDP Running Separatist Candidate in Montreal

We're Back....

Apparently, Blogger had some issues which took the platform off-line for a day.
Somehow yesterday's "Sovereignty is Dead" post is gone and while I have a very rough draft, I'll wait to see if it's restored.
Thanks to all who emailed their concern...