Liberal Fortunes Haven't Really Changed

With most of the press screaming that the sky has fallen for the Liberals, the most cursory look at the numbers tells a much different story.

Here's a graph of voter support comparing this election campaign with a baseline of the 2008 election results. It shows that Liberal and Conservatives support has stayed pretty much the same.

This is the net difference between 2008 and now.

For all the sound and fury, the NDP aren't in line to pick up a ton of seats and the Bloc isn't in line to lose a ton of seats, such is the vagaries of our election system.

Nobody is talking about the incredible nosedive that the Green Party has taken in popularity, dropping in voter preference by almost half. It's hard to see the party surviving under Elizabeth May and with it's taxpayer subsidy set to drop by almost 50%, times will be tough.
Can it be that the environment is a dead issue in Canada? 

By the way...
We've been reminded over and over again that the cost of this federal election is about $300 million dollars.
What isn't considered is the loss in productivity.
If all working voters take just one hour of employer paid time to vote (the law provides up to three) it will cost the country another $200 million in lost productivity. This doesn't even consider the loss of time in classes as hundreds of schools are closed down to become polling stations.

As it stands today, it looks like we are going to have another minority Conservative government and we very well may be back at the polls again within two years. Hooray!

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 I'd be remiss in not wishing the Montreal Canadiens good luck in their seventh and deciding game tonight in Boston.

Here's some sweet inspiration!

Let's hope Bruins blow a seventh game four years in a row!

Separatists Hit Panique Button

Easter weekend has not been kind to Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois as poll after poll describe the fortunes of the party in a precipitous decline, now trailing the Ndp in popularity, something none of the experts dared predict before the election.

This last weekend has been particularly unnerving to those in the sovereignist movement and since the news dropped that two out of the three major polling firms have placed the Ndp ahead of the Bloc Quebecois, confusion and panic has set in.
Although Duceppe has started to attack Layton, the NDP leader appears to have a latex exterior and so far the political attacks have bounced harmlessly off the dapper politician. Let's be honest, it's hard to demonize Jack Layton.
The Conservatives have taken a much more subtle approach, likening Layton to an affectionate old uncle, loved and appreciated but not to be trusted with the family wallet.

One of the most sacrosanct beliefs held by expert Quebec-watchers is that support for sovereignty and independence has a bedrock base of about 30%.
It has become an accepted fact that this 30% will remain militant sovereignists come hell or high water and will always vote for the sovereignist option, just as it is accepted that about 45% of Quebeckers will always vote for the federalist option, again, no matter what.

Commodity traders describe a 'resistance line', or a 'trading range' to refer to a product like pork bellies or frozen orange juice's traditional price range.

When the product 'breaks out' either above or below this range, it becomes a wildly unpredictable affair and the so-called 'experts' throw up their hands and watch the unfolding scenario, unable to realistically predict the final outcome.
If recent polls are to be believed, support for the Bloc Quebecois has fallen below the critical 30% level, with the EKOS poll and IPSOS-REID poll both putting the Bloc support at 27%. In fairness, a third poll done by NANOS pegs the Bloc support at 32%. LINK

That being said, what is noteworthy, is that all three polls have support for the Bloc falling in this last week of the campaign and if the trend continues, no one can predict with any certainty what the actual results will be in terms of who will be elected..

It is important to note that about 70% of Bloc voters (or former Bloc voters) indicate that the Ndp is their second choice and with the Liberals floundering in Quebec rather helplessly, it's also hard to see a Bloc voter going anywhere else but the Ndp, the Conservatives certainly not an option.

So why the change of heart?
Anyone who claims they have the answer is Monday morning quarterback.

No doubt there is a bandwagon effect going on, similar to the one a couple of years ago that saw the ADQ make a giant provincial election breakthrough, also at the separatist's expense.
But since then, things have fallen back to normal with the Pq and the Liberals holding the majority of support and seats provincially.

It's fair to ask if this infatuation with Jack Layton and the Ndp is a one-off thing.

But for the moment, there's no doubt that about one-third of historical Bloc voters are looking for something else. It seems that Jack Layton has struck a cord and for many of the disillusioned, a vote for the Ndp is a well-placed and acceptable protest vote.

For the sovereignists, desperation has set in.
Yesterday morning the Bloc had brought back out of retirement, a frail yet hearty Jacques Parizeau to hit the campaign trail to inspire the troops with warnings of impending doom and gloom.

If they could, separatists would dig up the corpse of Rene Levesque, slap on a new suit and a little makeup and get Andre Philippe Gagnon to mouth his voice in a couple of well-placed TV commercials.

That's how desperate things are..

Whether the trend will hold until election day is the $64,000 question and if it does, what exactly the effect on the actual election will be is an open question. The new Ndp support is so diffused that whether it can make a difference in more than a few ridings is questionable.
It will however, help secure the fortunes of Quebec Tory incumbents who were thought to be in danger due to the arena fiasco. It will undoubtedly, help Conservative independent MP, Andre Arthur save his seat as well as Justin Trudeau.

As for the rest, there aren't more than a half dozen close races and whether the Ndp surge can take more than a projected two seats in Quebec, remains to be seen.

Interestingly, the big Ndp bump seems to be an exclusively Francophone affair and although no hard statistics are available, I don't think Jack Layton's new found strength translates into the English community. If it did, it would be good news for at least two Conservative candidates, Larry Smith and Saulie Zajdel, both who need some help to overcome traditional Liberal support to have any hope of winning.

At the end of the day, whether the Bloc returns to Ottawa with thirty seats or fifty seats is of little consequence if Harper gets his majority government.
That remains the overriding concern for Quebec nationalists who rightfully consider this the overriding matter at hand.


BTW::::

I'm off to the Canadiens game tonight with my son and so I hope readers will wish us LUCK!!!!
To the Vancouver Canucks and their fans, I hope all works out for you guys later tonight!

KEEP THE FAITH!!!!!!!!!!

Campaign Signs We'd Like to See

For more fun, see;

Defaced Election Signs

Have Happy long weekend- back on Tuesday...

Federalists Help Elect Separatists

The new found strength of the Ndp in Quebec doesn't seem to translate into many new seats with the Bloc Quebecois apparently set to hold onto a number of seats by the skin of their teeth due to the federalist vote splitting.
Looking at the numbers tells us that there are several Bloc ridings that could easily be won by a federalist party, should they only combine forces.

In all but a handfull of Quebec ridings in the 2008 election the federalist parties garnered more votes than the Bloc, but because of vote-splitting the Bloc won over two-thirds of the seats with less than 40% of the vote.

As things stand now, they are set to win just about as many seats, but with support down to the 34% level, if the latest polls are to be believed.

André Arthur

Withdrawing a candidate and leaving the field open to a 'favoured' enemy, is a strategy rarely invoked in Canada, but it is not unheard of. In the last election the Conservatives did not run anyone in Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier, allowing independant, André Arthur to squeak in ahead of the Bloc candidate. Once again in this election, the Conservatives are adopting this pragmatic approach, choosing to have an ally outside the party, rather than a Bloc member.

The only problem about withdrawing a candidate in favour of another party is that you must be confident that the votes will go where you want them to go.
This was a no-brainer for the Conservatives in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, few of their supporters were apt to vote Liberal and even if some of their supporters bled to the Bloc, the vast majority went to Arthur.

Between the three major federalist parties, withdrawing a candidate in favour of another party's runner makes sense only for the Ndp and Liberals. It is natural that should an Ndp candidate stand down, support would move massively to the Liberals and vice-versa.
It'd be hard to predict where the Conservative support would go should they adopt a stand-down policy and perhaps many Conservatives would choose not to vote rather than vote Liberal or Ndp.

That being said, let's look at some Bloc ridings that would go federalist, would the NDP and Liberals cooperate by pulling one candidate or another. I'm using data from yesterday's projections as reported by Threehundredeight.com.


Here's a look at at ten ridings that could be be taken back from the Bloc by combining the Liberal and NDP vote;

There are another five or six ridings that are close.

While cooperation would seem to be mutually beneficial, it seems that the natural competitiveness makes it hard to put into practice.
In the hotly contested riding of Gatineau the Liberals are accused of trying to smear, Francoise Boivin, the former Liberal MP and now NDP candidate, who is actually leading the incumbent Bloc candidate.

"New Democrat Leader Jack Layton accused the Liberals of playing dirty tricks against one of his star candidates in Quebec and called it a sign of desperation....

.....Montreal newspaper Le Devoir reported Tuesday that Boivin did not actually leave the party for ideological reasons as she has previously stated, but because she hired a woman to work in her office the Liberals say was her same-sex partner and then refused to acknowledge she had broken the rules." LINK

Look up at the table and you'll see that if in fact Miss Boivin's support drops because of the allegations, it'll be the Bloc candidate who'll be the winner, even if the lost NDP vote goes to the Liberals!

Cooperation? Oh well...... just dreaming.

PQ Convention - Blah...Blah...Blah!

Reading news reports of the events at the PQ convention last weekend I am reminded of that famous New York Yankee baseball manger, Yogi Berra who once said; ""It's déjà vu all over again,"

Each PQ convention seems a clone of the previous, the only question at issue is whether the current leader survives or is cast aside in another cruel act of political fratricide.

Alas, the lovely Pauline was indeed confirmed as the leader, receiving a 93% approval rating,  impressive when one considers that she scores in the mid-twenties with the general public.

The day before her reconfirmation, Marois sat silently by as delegates voted to ban English public signage, holding her tongue, lest she upset the militant dogs ahead of her leadership review.
Readers may remember that this particular clause in Bill 101, among dozens of others, was overturned by the Supreme Court, years ago.
The delegates wanted to re-implement the very same clause and use the famous "Notwithstanding Clause" to opt out of the inevitable court defeat.

In most politcal parties, it is the 'Young Turks' wing of the party that pushes for radical new policies, but in the case of the PQ, it is the old and frustrated who most want to push the envelope, sensing that like Moses or Martin Luther King, they will never see the Promised Land.
"And I've seen the Promised Land. I may not get there with you. But I want you to know tonight, that we, as a people, will get to the promised land!"

Of course Pauline and the other PQ elected members were aghast at the idea of re-implementing the draconian policy that could best be described as lose/lose gambit.

As soon as her leadership was reaffirmed she set forth to scuttle the newly minted motion.

First she sent party bigwigs out to the podium to soften up delegates.
Makko Kotta told delegates then that "...We can reduce, but not outlaw English. We are on a quest for a new nation and this resolution can be potentially divisive"
...How generous!

"PQ language critic Pierre Curzi and former PQ language critic Louise Beaudoin were dispatched to send a message to the hard-liners through the media that the PQ in power would not revisit the sign issue.
"It is a position which could effectively be perceived as radical," Curzi told reporters at a hastily called news conference in the corridor. "We find it does, indeed, send us down a perilous path." LINK

After the delegates had been suitably cowered, Marois hit the stage to put the coup de grace on the proposal by calling for a new vote;

"I have no desire to get embroiled in another legal debate on the question of the language of signs, given that we have lost all the way to the United Nations.

"What I want is for us to put all our energies into winning our battles. I ask you to reject this proposal."

"With that, the party made a stunning flip-flop - agreeing to not touch the existing law: Bill 86, adopted by the Liberal government in 1993, allowing English on signs as long as French is predominant." LINK

It was a cunning piece of strategy, cynical but nonetheless effective. Marois let the militants run wild and then after receiving their blessing, undid the damage.

One thing the party did do was to re-affirm their intention to restrict access to English cegep to those ineligible under the terms of Bill 101, thus rejecting the conclusions of the Quebec's most senior language body, charged with defending the French language, the Conseil supérieur de la language française. In a report published just weeks before the PQ convention, it concluded that "...attendance in English cegep has virtually no effect on language shifts" 

As far as language militants were concerned, this unacceptable conclusion meant that the bloom was off of the rose of this hitherto august body which they attacked mercilessly in the press as a sellout.

LINK

No matter, it wasn't really about defending French, it was more about punishing the English 'colonialists.' 

I daresay that if Rene Levesque and Lionel Groulx popped out of the grave to advise them the same, they would reject the notion as well. 

To delegates, anti-English resolutions are just too delicious to pass up and no convention would be complete without a few nasty proposals, putting Anglos in their place.

One of the proponent's of the ban on English signage told reporters that it is 'normal' to have only one language on commercial signs, after all, he pontificated, when one goes to Italy, one doesn't expect to see English signs.

Hmmm.....No reporter dared to challenge the remarks by reminding him that Quebec is not a country, but rather a province in a predominantly English-speaking country! Ouch!

And so with a renewed sense of purpose and conviction that Quebec would soon be a sovereign state, the delegates left the convention in an upbeat and confident state of mind, oblivious to the reality that they'll be back again next year and the year after that and in ten years as well, ad nauseum.

The broken record continues to play the same tired tune over and over again, with the general public sick of hearing it, while to hardliners, it remains a rhapsodic symphony!