Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Liberal Fortunes Haven't Really Changed

With most of the press screaming that the sky has fallen for the Liberals, the most cursory look at the numbers tells a much different story.

Here's a graph of voter support comparing this election campaign with a baseline of the 2008 election results. It shows that Liberal and Conservatives support has stayed pretty much the same.

This is the net difference between 2008 and now.

For all the sound and fury, the NDP aren't in line to pick up a ton of seats and the Bloc isn't in line to lose a ton of seats, such is the vagaries of our election system.

Nobody is talking about the incredible nosedive that the Green Party has taken in popularity, dropping in voter preference by almost half. It's hard to see the party surviving under Elizabeth May and with it's taxpayer subsidy set to drop by almost 50%, times will be tough.
Can it be that the environment is a dead issue in Canada? 

By the way...
We've been reminded over and over again that the cost of this federal election is about $300 million dollars.
What isn't considered is the loss in productivity.
If all working voters take just one hour of employer paid time to vote (the law provides up to three) it will cost the country another $200 million in lost productivity. This doesn't even consider the loss of time in classes as hundreds of schools are closed down to become polling stations.

As it stands today, it looks like we are going to have another minority Conservative government and we very well may be back at the polls again within two years. Hooray!

 I'd be remiss in not wishing the Montreal Canadiens good luck in their seventh and deciding game tonight in Boston.

Here's some sweet inspiration!

Let's hope Bruins blow a seventh game four years in a row!


  1. Can you post a disclaimer on how you calculated the percentage change and then send it out to Beaulieu and all that other seppie/language nazi scum?

  2. I can't see why there would be many schools closed for this. In my area (GTA) they have the polls in the gym and just cancel phys. ed. classes for the day (or have them outside if the weather is good).