Thursday, April 28, 2011

Election Hysteria Grips Media

All of a sudden interest in Canada's federal election seems to have caught fire, after a lacklustre and moribund start that had most Canadians yawning with disinterest.

The story 'du jour' is Jack Layton's ascension in Quebec and media coverage has been hysterical and the frenetic pace of coverage has led to a bunch of stories that should never really have seen the light of day.

First, the polls, which are all over the map, leaving me to believe that we are in that statistical anomaly, the mythical 19th out of 20 polls that the pollsters keep in their back pocket as an excuse for a completely botched prediction.

With supposed margins of error of 3½%, it's hard to understand how two different polls are more than 7% apart, but no matter.
 There's almost a nine point difference between the EKOS and NANO polls and considering that according to the two pollsters own combined self-declared margin of error, there shouldn't be more than a 5.3% difference at worst. Hmmm.....

It reminds me of what our 13th Prime Minister, John Diefenbaker, once said about polls.
"....dogs know best what to do with polls."

Worse than that was the outrageous predictions of projected seat counts. The difference between certain news organizations calls into question whether they have any clue at all.
Here's what predicts. I like this website a lot more than the individual polling firms because it aggregates the lot of them.
This is how they see the actual seat count as of a couple of days ago. Close, but still not a Harper majority.

The Montreal Gazette gets the cake for the stupidest most outlandish prediction of all and one wonders what the editors were thinking when they published this drivel, last Friday.

"According to a mathematical analysis of the poll, the Conservatives' majority could be huge, at 201 seats, the largest majority in the House of Commons since Brian Mulroney's record 211 seats in 1984, and in Quebec, the Bloc Québécois could plunge to the unheard-of depths of four seats." Montreal Gazette

While polls show national and provincial trends, one of the most difficult things is predicting the actual riding by riding impact of polling numbers. In Canada, our federal election is comprised of 308 individual elections and while national numbers are an important key to predicting what will happen, when things are close, as in many ridings, all bets are off as the force and magnetism of the individual candidates does make a difference.

When reviewing polling numbers, mathematics make it easy to spot reporting blunders, but it's more difficult to spot bias. That being said the slant in some news organizations is hard to miss, with two prime examples being Canada's largest web news aggregatorsBourque and National  Newswatch both of whom have become Liberal party shills during the election.

In Tuesday's National Post, (a huge Conservative booster) a giant front page story tried to paint Michael Ignatieff as a bullshitter, who  changed his story in regards to some old war story
A rather naked and blatant attempt to smear his reputation in the waning days of the campaign.
Or there's always Radio-Canada who got some mileage out of a story that Harper’s communications director, Dimitri Soudas, interfered to shill for Robert Abdallah ­ as a candidate for board chairman at the Montreal port authority. Harper was forced to defend himself against the charge of undue influence
Trouble is, the story is TWO YEARS OLD and was dredged up to specifically hurt Harper.
Here's the original story published in 2009! LINK{FR}

Last week, SunTV launched it's news channel which Liberals have sarcastically dubbed FOX NEWS North. The station has predictably taken up the causes near and dear to conservative Canadians, much to the howls of derision from political opponents.

To my eye, the launch hasn't been a rousing success. Short on content and long on moral outrage, viewers won't be satisfied with long-winded rants like that of Ezra Levant who lectured us for much to long on the evils of visiting Cuba.

Aside from Charles Adler, the talking heads collectively seem horribly ill at ease, but hopefully things will improve. First change needed is a decent 6PM newscast, without which the channel is hard to take seriously as a national news force.

SUNTV- Hard to compete with FoxNEWS!
Changes are sure to come. The first time I watched the morning show with Pat Bolland and Alex Pierson, I was not only struck by the  stilted banter and horrifically amateur content, but the off-putting image of the not so perfect bare legs of the otherwise lovely Ms. Pierson.

The next time I tuned into the morning show, the co-hosts were mercifully ensconced behind a desk instead of a couch. PROGRESS!

As for charges in the National Post that the network is home to bimbos wearing sleeveless dresses, all I can say is that the High Def version of the channel is not particularly kind to any of the on-air personnel and so in summation, all I can say is that SUNTV is no Fox NEWS, personality-wise, leg-wise or content-wise.

But I remain hopeful.......


  1. Is that woman in the Fox News picture wearing panties? I guess she's just showing off her talents.

    Dief the Chief was right. Polls are for dogs!

    I've already voted, and not for Ignatieff. Layton's death blow to Iggy was exposing him for only being in Parliament 30% of the time. Let's face it, he wasn't voted leader by party delegates, the elite committed a coup d'état.

    If Boob Rae is the next Liberal leader, HE can kiss a Liberal majority goodbye. Ontario's 107 seats remember an NDP premier in Ontario with the exact same name--HEY! was the SAME GUY!

    When Rae was defeated by Mike Harris in 1995 in Ontario, the Ontario income tax rate dropped from 58% of the federal tax rate to 39.5%, and it is STILL nowhere near that 58%; then again, Dolt Head McGuinty surprised everybody after his first electoral win with a health tax levy and his second win with a 13% HST. Oh, and lest we forget a $25 billion deficit last year.

    Liberals tax, NDP spends...and spends...and spends.

    Anyway, it's not as if any one of them is especially good. Harper prorogues and violates parliamentary ethics, fires those who watch over agencies of government that dare criticize him, and gags his own caucus on everything. They're his "yes" men and women.

    Ignatieff belongs back in the halls of the Ivy League writing books. As one of my former university professors, an author of many books, wrote in my course syllabus:

    "Those who can, do;
    Those who can't, teach;
    Those who can't teach, teach teachers;
    Those who can't teach teachers, write books!"

    That particular professor taught at Concordia U. in the mid to late 1970s. He used to commute from his home in Vermont, never having lived in Canada. I was in his last class in 1979. He moved on to San Diego State and finally Johns Hopkins before becoming a Professor Emeritus at Hopkins. He also taught elsewhere before coming to Concordia, all in the U.S.

    Ignatieff lived in the U.S. for 34 years before coming back to Canada to, like Mulroney, become Prime Minister, and nothing but. At least Mulroney attended parliamentary sessions and spent his whole life in Canada. His ambitions were unquestionable, but he was a feisty debater, having cut off John Turner's head back in the debates of 1984 and 1988.

    Mulroney was hands-on having run businesses and practicing law. Ignatieff was busy loving the American way, adopting it, and then coming back to Canada to usurp Dion after his convention loss and with the help of the Liberal Party elite. Boob Rae was ready to oppose Ignatieff, but the elite managed to usurp his ambitions to put their puppet on the strings. Thankfully, it didn't work and the whole wretched lot of them should be drawn and quartered by this time next week. GOOD-BYE, GOOD LUCK, GOOD RIDDANCE...ALL of them!

  2. @Mississauga Guy, did you vote CON? No need to answer, just a question. Still undecided over here. Don't know if having Harper as a majority is a good/bad thing. One of my close friends is thoroughly convinced that's the only way to vote. Opinions more than welcome.

  3. Canada is in deep trouble.And sadly the scum bag politicians who have created this mess refuse to discuss any of this. Its all about greed, just follow the money. We now have over 3.5 million people working for government across the country. Average salary in government is about 70 thousand (including benefits, pension, bonuses...) yearly and rising. Average salary in the private sector is around 45 thousand yearly and dropping. Over 10% of government employees now make over 100 thousand yearly. In the private sector the number is under 2%. Look to Greece, Ireland and Quebec (all bankrupt), this is where Canada is headed if we don’t stop equalization and get spending and government growth under control. This tax and spend, union scum, socialist, big government, social engineering that has been destroying this country has got to stop. Yes, it has left Quebec and has been spreading throughout the rest of the country since the 1960”s, that’s right over 5 decades of massive government growth, massive government hiring, skyrocketing government salaries and more and more debt. Thanks Trudeau, Tanks kebec (original native spelling). Don’t believe me; go check the stats for yourself.

    "A democracy is always temporary in nature;
    it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government.

    "A democracy will continue to exist up
    until the time that voters discover they can vote
    themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.

    "From that moment on, the majority always vote
    for the candidates who promise the most benefits
    from the public treasury, with the result that every
    democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy,
    which is always followed by a dictatorship.

    "The average age of the world's greatest civilizations
    from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years.
    During those 200 years, those nations always progressed
    through the following sequence:

    1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
    2. From spiritual faith to great courage;
    3. From courage to liberty;
    4. From liberty to abundance;
    5. From abundance to complacency;
    6. From complacency to apathy; Canada is at this stage now
    7. From apathy to dependence;
    8. From dependence back into bondage

  4. Brent Tyler is voting conservative, there was an article in the Gazette about why. From a strategic voting perspective i will vote liberal to stop the bloc and NDP from winning.(papineau) To be honest I don't support any party.

    I want to vote for harper, but the conservative party has just as much things for me to vote for them as against them.

    Liberals want CAP and trade fraud like NDP and ignatieff doesn't inspire anyone. I supported alot of the cuts the conservatives did to special interest groups (want more cuts) and the cuts to "arts" and liberals might reinstate that which I disagree with. But what i saw from previous liberals is they don't reinstate funding usually and cry poor and will try to balance the deficit.

    NDP has jack layton who is a piece of s%#^ scum traitor to the community he was born in.

    In the end I hate all the platforms for one reason or the other. Nothing that appeals to me. I don't think I am the only one. Many articles about the disenchanted middle of Canadians.

    Like Mississauga guy said a party on the federal level advocating for anglos and allos in Quebec in Quebec might make a difference. It could have leverage during hung election results like we will probably see again.

  5. What is also very sad is that we’re going to give the selfish French-speakers of Quebec even more opportunity to dump on the English-speakers. Jack Layton has said that he will push for Bill 101 to be applied to all federal jobs in Quebec!!! The English-speakers of Quebec had better waken up to this threat coming from the NDP. How the NDP supporters in the other provinces can support Jack on this issue – I will never understand.

    Layton and the NDP could be worse then the parties who have destroyed kebec for the last 5 decades. Scary indeed.

  6. Il y a des Juifs sympathiques à Montréal

    Je vais vous raconter l'histoire de Manon (qui vient de se passer), bilingue et avenante, dans la trentaine, serveuse de restaurant à Côte-St-Luc, non loin du boulevard Décarie. Son patron qui l'a engagée est un Juif sympathique, sans préjugé, ouvert sur le monde donc ouvert sur les Québécois.

    Une mercédes-benz se place dans le stationnement. Quatre clients prospères dans la cinquantaine s'installent à une table et parlent anglais entre eux. Manon sait que ce sont des Juifs. Calepin de commandes et crayon à la main, elle s'adresse à eux en anglais. Le premier à commander lui parle en français et même en excellent français. De même, les trois autres amis. Le repas se déroule sans anicroche et au moment du dessert, un des Juifs dit à Manon: "Vous m'avez semblé étonnée qu'on vous parle français." Manon lui dit que ce n'est pas toujours le cas et qu'elle a la plupart du temps à répondre en anglais. " "Je comprends lui dit-il mais nous on est spécial: on est des amis de Paul Unterberg, le célèbre avocat indépendantiste. On a voté OUI au référendum et on va voter pour le Bloc le 2 mai".

    A la fin du dessert au moment de l'addition, le plus bavard des quatre dit à la serveuse: "Connaissez-vous l'histoire juive de l'autobus? Et il parlait fort comme un professeur qui veut que l'élève dans le fond de la classe entende. Tout le restaurant, une quinzaine de clients, écoutait. Le propriétaire, même s'approcha et se préparait à rire.

    C'est une mère juive qui crie dans un autobus :

    -Y a-t-il un médecin ici, SVP un médecin vite !!!

    Une personne de 30 ans arrive et dit :
- Oui , je suis médecin ! Qui est malade?

    Et la dame répond :

    - Voudrais-tu que je te présente ma fille ! 

    Rires dans le restaurant. 

    Un deuxième dit: moi aussi j'ai une histoire juive. 

    Voici quatre preuves que Jésus était Juif.
    1- Il a habité chez sa mère jusqu'à trente ans;
    2- Il croyait que sa mère était vierge;
    3- Sa mère le prenait pour un dieu;
    4- Avec l'entreprise de charpentier de son père, il a fait une multinationale qui marche encore après 2000 ans.

    Rires dans le restaurant.
    Les quatre Juifs payèrent l'addition et laissèrent un pourboire de vingt dollars sur la table.
    Il y a des Juifs sympathiques à Montréal. Ceux qui vous diront le contraire ne connaissent pas les amis de Paul Unterberg. Paul Unterberg est un avocat qui se spécialise dans la responsabilité civile. Il défend les consommateurs.  Il fut candidat du Parti québécois dans la circonscription de d'Arcy McGee en avril 1970.
    Il est l'auteur du livre «Le Québec aux Québécois», publié en 1971 chez Ferron éditeur.

    Robert Barberis-Gervais, Vieux-Longueuil, 28 avril 2011

  7. Frank, this is really something only you can decide.

    Personally, I can't stomach Ignatieff. My life partner's parents in Laval didn't vote Liberal,and her father is one of those who normally lives by the credo "My daddy voted Liberal, and I'm voting Liberal, so there!" He voted Conservative and his wife NDP.

    I DID vote Conservative at the advance polls. I don't dislike the Liberal incumbent in my constituency. He's hard working and dedicated. He's a CA, so he can go back to practicing accounting if he loses. He's been our MP for over 17 years now so he'll get his full pension as an MP and can easily afford to sit on his ass and ch-ching!

    He may choose to retire and spend more time with his family (4 kids + grandkids now), or go onto a new challenge. I really don't care because he has done his public service and while I admire his wish to continue with public service, he is being led astray by bad leadership. His choice. I've made mine.

  8. @ Robert Barberis-Gervais,

    "Voici quatre preuves que Jésus était Juif.
    2- Il croyait que sa mère était vierge;
    3- Sa mère le prenait pour un dieu;"

    The Quebecois beleived this Christian hocus-pocus en masse for most of their history, and many still do.

    I'm not Jewish, but I am amazed at your level of bigotry. I hope Bnai-Brith and other Jewish organizations really nail you and the other Vigile nutcases with lawsuits.

  9. @ RBG

    Way too much detail in this story for it to be true but even if it is, never has a story been so pointless and irelevant.

  10. Anon APRIL 28, 2011 11:57 AM:

    Your post is spot in. Your 8 step-sequence is right on the money.

    We can’t forget the lessons the history teaches us. Rome fell after a period of decadence. We are in this period now. People are no longer interested in history, humanities, literature. Even sciences, IT, and engineering aren’t so popular anymore, attracting mostly immigrants. These days, everyone wants to get into a business school and learn how to “develop a market to import eco-friendly soap” (

    Consequently, politics today is just a way to make money. It’s a career path, a fast track to fortune. There are no more statesman, no more committed civil servants toiling for low wages to make the society better.

    And then they wonder why election turn outs are so low.

  11. @Jason, re RBG de Vieux-Longueuil, I don't agree that his recent post is pointless. As a stalwart Vigiliste, a militant of the first hour etc. everything RGB writes is focused on sovereignty. Provocation is a righteous strategy. So RBG posts his bizarre anecdote, true or false is beside the point, in the fond hope that someone will accuse him of anti-semitism and thus demonstrate that anglos are anti free speech, or under the hypnotic influence of B'nai Brith or...whatever. No Jason, old RBG is crazy like a fox. And he loves to write about jewish folks. I hear there are lots of them in Vieux-Longueuil. So RBG knows whereof he speaks.

  12. @Adski

    "And then they wonder why election turn outs are so low."

    100% daccord avec vous sur celle-la adski!

  13. Le vote de la communauté juive de Montréal et des environs
    Le journaliste de La Presse Martin Croteau écrit : Dans MOnt-Royal, vieux principe juif du « hakarat hatov » pourrait jouer un rôle déterminant dans l’issue du vote. Reconnaître le bien et témoigner sa gratitude, ce principe est enseigné depuis des siècles dans la religion juive. L’appui inconditionnel du gouvernement Harper à Israël pourrait être récompensé dans cette circonscription, où plus du tiers des résidants sont de confession juive."
    Il ajoute :
    "La communauté juive ne constitue que 1% des électeurs au Canada. Mais son vote pèse lourd dans une poignée de circonscriptions. C’est le cas dans Mont-Royal, qui comprend une partie de l’arrondissement de Côte-des-Neiges, les villes de Mont-Royal, Hampstead et Côte-Saint-Luc. Les candidats des trois principaux partis nationaux, Saulie Zajdel (PC), Jeff Itcush (NPD), et Irwin Cotler (PLC) sont des membres bien en vue de la communauté."
    Pourquoi la communauté juive serait-elle tentée d’abandonner les Libéraux et de voter pour les Conservateurs ? Martin Croteau répond :
    "Stephen Harper a remodelé la politique étrangère du Canada, donnant un appui inconditionnel à Israël. Il a été l’un des rares leaders à ne pas condamner la frappe contre une flottille humanitaire qui a fait une vingtaine de morts, l’an dernier. Il a aussi été accusé d’avoir transformé "Droits et démocratie" en une entité pro-israélienne après que l’organisme eut cessé de subventionner des groupes de défense des droits de la personne au Moyen-Orient."
    Et j’ajouterais l’annulation de la subvention de 7 millions à l’organisme non gouvernemental (ONG) Kairos soupçonné de sympathies pro-palestiniennes.
    Martin Croteau écrit :
    "Le candidat conservateur Saulie Zaidel visite le Manoir King David, une résidence pour personnes âgées de Côte-Saint-Luc. Il serre des mains. (…) il ne se fait pas prier pour soulever la question d’Israël.
    « Je suis avec M. Harper, déclare-t-il. Je crois sincèrement être avec le bon homme, celui qui a défendu Israël aux Nations unies. »
    Il rappelle ensuite que Michael Ignatieff a qualifié de « crime de guerre » le bombardement du village de Cana, qui a coûté la vie à 28 civils lors de l’offensive israélienne au Liban en 2006.
    « M. Harper est derrière Israël, il est derrière son droit de se défendre, explique M. Zajdel en entrevue. Et ça, ça résonne beaucoup dans la communauté ici. »
    Voici la conclusion du journaliste qui affirme que le vote juif peut se déplacer vers les conservateurs.
    « Pour la première fois, les libéraux pourraient perdre la circonscription, confie un membre en vue de la communauté juive, qui s’est exprimé sous couvert de l’anonymat. La question israélienne a été extrêmement populaire dans la communauté. De ce point de vue, la politique conservatrice est un franc succès. »
    Et voici ma conclusion.
    Certains électeurs peuvent voter en fonction de la présence de l’armée canadienne en Afghanistan qu’ils désapprouvent. Mais c’est souvent un facteur parmi d’autres qui influence leur vote. Dans le cas qui nous intéresse ici, la communauté juive semble être la seule communauté au Canada dont le vote est principalement déterminé par la politique étrangère ou internationale du Canada de Stephen Harper à l’égard de l’Etat d’Israël. Et pour eux, le Bloc n'existe pas.
    Robert Barberis-Gervais