LIVE: ELECTION BLOG NOW!!!!!!

 
Dear Readers,
We will commence our very first live blogging event right NOW!!!!

DO NOT THREAD YOUR COMMENTS,
DO NOT USE THE REPLY BUTTON.
MAKE EVERY COMMENT ITS VERY OWN SO THAT READERS CAN JUST SCROLL EASILY AND READ THE LATEST.

TRY NOT TO USE FOUL LANGUAGE AND MAKE AN EFFORT TO BE POLITE.

SPELLING AND SYNTAX ARE NOT IMPORTANT. DON'T OVER-EDIT.  GET IT OUT FAST.

DO NOT USE  BOLD FACE AT ALL.
All the EDITORS (me) comments will be in boldface, so that you can pick them out if you want to limit what you read.
Please respect this rule.

USE TXTING SHORTHND AND INTRNET & CHAT ACRONYMS ALLOWED

2moro - Tomorrow

2nite - Tonight

BRB - Be Right Back

BTW - By The Way -or- Bring The Wheelchair

B4N - Bye For Now

BCNU - Be Seeing You

BFF - Best Friends Forever -or- Best Friend's Funeral

CYA - Cover Your Ass -or- See Ya

DBEYR - Don't Believe Everything You Read

DILLIGAS - Do I Look Like I Give A Sh**

FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, and Disinformation

FWIW - For What It's Worth -or- Forgot Where I Was

GR8 - Great

ILY - I Love You

IMHO - In My Humble Opinion

IRL - In Real Life

ISO - In Search Of

J/K - Just Kidding

L8R - Later

LMAO - Laughing My Ass Off

LOL - Laughing Out Loud -or- Lots Of Love -or- Living On Lipitor

LYLAS - Love You Like A Sister

MHOTY - My Hat's Off To You

NIMBY - Not In My Back Yard

NP - No Problem -or- Nosy Parents

NUB - New person to a site or game

OIC - Oh, I See

OMG - Oh My God

OT - Off Topic

POV - Point Of View

RBTL - Read Between The Lines

ROTFLMAO - Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off

RT - Real Time -or- ReTweet

THX or TX or THKS - Thanks

SH - Sh** Happens

SITD - Still In The Dark

SOL - Sh** Out of Luck -or- Sooner Or Later

STBY - Sucks To Be You

SWAK - Sealed (or Sent) With A Kiss

TFH - Thread From Hell

RTM or RTFM - Read The Manual -or- Read The F***ing Manual

TLC - Tender Loving Care

TMI - Too Much Information

TTYL - Talk To You Later -or- Type To You Later

TYVM - Thank You Very Much

VBG - Very Big Grin

WEG - Wicked Evil Grin

WTF - What The F***

WYWH - Wish You Were Here

XOXO - Hugs and Kisses

- See more at: http://www.netlingo.com/top50/popular-text-terms.php#sthash.BNTlEGFp.dpuf

411 -- information
BFN -- Bye for now
FYI -- For your information
KK -- Okay, I understand
BTW- By The Way
DBEYR- Don't Believe Everything You Read
DILLIGAS- Do I Look Like I Give A Shit
FUD- Fear, Uncertainty, & Disinformation
FWIW- For What It's Worth
GR8- Great
IMO- In My Opinion
IMHO- In My Humble Opinion
J/K- Just Kidding
LMAO- Laughing My Ass Off
LOL- Laughing Out Loud
MHOTY- My Hat's Off To You
NUB- New person to a site or game
OIC- Oh, I See
OMG- Oh My God
OT- Off Topic
POV- Point Of View
RBTL- Read Between The Lines
ROTFLMAO- Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off
THX or TX or THKS- Thanks
SITD- Still In The Dark
SOL - Shit Out of Luck
TMI- Too Much Information
VBG- Very Big Grin
WEG- Wicked Evil Grin
WTF- What The F**k

REMEMBER TO REFRESH OFTEN FOR LATEST COMMENTS...

Friends, we're on the fly....don't make me edit stupidities, puh-leeeese!

2moro - Tomorrow

2nite - Tonight

BRB - Be Right Back

BTW - By The Way -or- Bring The Wheelchair

B4N - Bye For Now

BCNU - Be Seeing You

BFF - Best Friends Forever -or- Best Friend's Funeral

CYA - Cover Your Ass -or- See Ya

DBEYR - Don't Believe Everything You Read

DILLIGAS - Do I Look Like I Give A Sh**

FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, and Disinformation

FWIW - For What It's Worth -or- Forgot Where I Was

GR8 - Great

ILY - I Love You

IMHO - In My Humble Opinion

IRL - In Real Life

ISO - In Search Of

J/K - Just Kidding

L8R - Later

LMAO - Laughing My Ass Off

LOL - Laughing Out Loud -or- Lots Of Love -or- Living On Lipitor

LYLAS - Love You Like A Sister

MHOTY - My Hat's Off To You

NIMBY - Not In My Back Yard

NP - No Problem -or- Nosy Parents

NUB - New person to a site or game

OIC - Oh, I See

OMG - Oh My God

OT - Off Topic

POV - Point Of View

RBTL - Read Between The Lines

ROTFLMAO - Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off

RT - Real Time -or- ReTweet

THX or TX or THKS - Thanks

SH - Sh** Happens

SITD - Still In The Dark

SOL - Sh** Out of Luck -or- Sooner Or Later

STBY - Sucks To Be You

SWAK - Sealed (or Sent) With A Kiss

TFH - Thread From Hell

RTM or RTFM - Read The Manual -or- Read The F***ing Manual

TLC - Tender Loving Care

TMI - Too Much Information

TTYL - Talk To You Later -or- Type To You Later

TYVM - Thank You Very Much

VBG - Very Big Grin

WEG - Wicked Evil Grin

WTF - What The F***

WYWH - Wish You Were Here

XOXO - Hugs and Kisses

- See more at: http://www.netlingo.com/top50/popular-text-terms.php#sthash.BNTlEGFp.dpuf

1. 2moro - Tomorrow
2. 2nite - Tonight
3. BRB - Be Right Back
4. BTW - By The Way -or- Bring The Wheelchair
5. B4N - Bye For Now
6. BCNU - Be Seeing You
7. BFF - Best Friends Forever -or- Best Friend's Funeral
8. CYA - Cover Your Ass -or- See Ya
9. DBEYR - Don't Believe Everything You Read
10. DILLIGAS - Do I Look Like I Give A Sh**
11. FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, and Disinformation
12. FWIW - For What It's Worth -or- Forgot Where I Was
13. GR8 - Great
14. ILY - I Love You
15. IMHO - In My Humble Opinion
16. IRL - In Real Life
17. ISO - In Search Of
18. J/K - Just Kidding
19. L8R - Later
20. LMAO - Laughing My Ass Off
21. LOL - Laughing Out Loud -or- Lots Of Love -or- Living On Lipitor
22. LYLAS - Love You Like A Sister
23. MHOTY - My Hat's Off To You
24. NIMBY - Not In My Back Yard
25. NP - No Problem -or- Nosy Parents
26. NUB - New person to a site or game
27. OIC - Oh, I See
28. OMG - Oh My God
29. OT - Off Topic
30. POV - Point Of View
31. RBTL - Read Between The Lines
32. ROTFLMAO - Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off
33. RT - Real Time -or- ReTweet
34. THX or TX or THKS - Thanks
35. SH - Sh** Happens
36. SITD - Still In The Dark
37. SOL - Sh** Out of Luck -or- Sooner Or Later
38. STBY - Sucks To Be You
39. SWAK - Sealed (or Sent) With A Kiss
40. TFH - Thread From Hell
41. RTM or RTFM - Read The Manual -or- Read The F***ing Manual
42. TLC - Tender Loving Care
43. TMI - Too Much Information
44. TTYL - Talk To You Later -or- Type To You Later
45. TYVM - Thank You Very Much
46. VBG - Very Big Grin
47. WEG - Wicked Evil Grin
48. WTF - What The F***
49. WYWH - Wish You Were Here
50. XOXO - Hugs and Kisses

- See more at: http://www.netlingo.com/top50/popular-text-terms.php#sthash.BNTlEGFp.dpuf

1. 2moro - Tomorrow
2. 2nite - Tonight
3. BRB - Be Right Back
4. BTW - By The Way -or- Bring The Wheelchair
5. B4N - Bye For Now
6. BCNU - Be Seeing You
7. BFF - Best Friends Forever -or- Best Friend's Funeral
8. CYA - Cover Your Ass -or- See Ya
9. DBEYR - Don't Believe Everything You Read
10. DILLIGAS - Do I Look Like I Give A Sh**
11. FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, and Disinformation
12. FWIW - For What It's Worth -or- Forgot Where I Was
13. GR8 - Great
14. ILY - I Love You
15. IMHO - In My Humble Opinion
16. IRL - In Real Life
17. ISO - In Search Of
18. J/K - Just Kidding
19. L8R - Later
20. LMAO - Laughing My Ass Off
21. LOL - Laughing Out Loud -or- Lots Of Love -or- Living On Lipitor
22. LYLAS - Love You Like A Sister
23. MHOTY - My Hat's Off To You
24. NIMBY - Not In My Back Yard
25. NP - No Problem -or- Nosy Parents
26. NUB - New person to a site or game
27. OIC - Oh, I See
28. OMG - Oh My God
29. OT - Off Topic
30. POV - Point Of View
31. RBTL - Read Between The Lines
32. ROTFLMAO - Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off
33. RT - Real Time -or- ReTweet
34. THX or TX or THKS - Thanks
35. SH - Sh** Happens
36. SITD - Still In The Dark
37. SOL - Sh** Out of Luck -or- Sooner Or Later
38. STBY - Sucks To Be You
39. SWAK - Sealed (or Sent) With A Kiss
40. TFH - Thread From Hell
41. RTM or RTFM - Read The Manual -or- Read The F***ing Manual
42. TLC - Tender Loving Care
43. TMI - Too Much Information
44. TTYL - Talk To You Later -or- Type To You Later
45. TYVM - Thank You Very Much
46. VBG - Very Big Grin
47. WEG - Wicked Evil Grin
48. WTF - What The F***
49. WYWH - Wish You Were Here
50. XOXO - Hugs and Kisses

- See more at: http://www.netlingo.com/top50/popular-text-terms.php#sthash.BNTlEGFp.dpuf

Let's Vote! ......LIVE BLOGGING TONIGHT AT 8:00PM

Last night I caught the BBC news about India's national election which started yesterday and goes on for several days. The story reminded me what sets apart mature and immature democracies.
Of the 545 members of the Lok Sahba, India's lower house in Parliament, 162 (30%) have criminal cases pending against them.
Of those 162 criminal cases, almost half, (76) are serious in nature, including murder and abduction.
Of the $801 million raised in political funding by the six major parties, $601 million comes from undisclosed sources.

So let's look at our democracy with a certain level of pride. I certainly don't want to compare ourselves to India, but our election system is fair and efficient.
Most important is the level of maturity displayed by voters, where sovereigntists and federalists have respected the will of the majority without violence or rancour. It's a lot to be proud of.

Compare ourselves to the United States with all their voting machines and technology, where results are often murky, sometimes taking days to figure out, often leading to court challenges.

Last Week I predicted..Lib-73..PQ-39...CAQ-9...QS-3..Pretty close to this final poll!

Here in Quebec, as in the rest of Canada we count every vote by hand, but usually have results within an hour and a half of the polls closing.
There's little controversy, with recounts happening only when the tally is extremely close, a few dozen votes or less.

I haven't counted votes since I was a teen, but remember how a painless the process was, with scrutineers from all parties agreeing on just about every vote, once in a Blue Moon, referring a ballot to the returning officer.

These past two years have been somewhat humiliating for all Quebec citizens, the level and depth of corruption a shock and surprise to all regular Joes and Janes who pay their taxes without too much griping and certainly with no opportunity to thieve the system.
These past days have proven that the PQ is as dishonest as the Liberals and I'm not buying the argument that its a level of degree as the PQ proclaim
...Qui vole un œuf, vole un bœuf
(Someone dishonest enough to steal a small thing can steal a big thing as well.)

The reality is that this corruption has pervaded all strata of Quebec society, with no distinction for language, ethnicity, political persuasion or political affiliation. If the Liberals were more corrupt, it was a result of opportunity
But in respect to corruption, I remain hopeful that the worst is behind us. Like addiction, admitting the problem is half the solution.
Unlike certain crime which is a zero sum affair (like busting a cocaine distribution ring, only to have another pop up almost immediately to replace it,) corruption can be reduced significantly with the right safeguards and a commitment to stamp it out.
I think we are getting there..
I look at the Charbonneau Commission as our very own Truth and Reconciliation Commission, a necessary and cathartic exercise, that will hopefully see us move into an era where public officials are more honest, perhaps not out of integrity but fear of being caught and punished.
The over-riding opinion by miscreants that everybody was stealing and that they wouldn't be caught was the main impetus to corruption. That idea is in the process of being destroyed.

But I digress...and so back to the election;

To those of us who will lose 'their' election tonight I sympathize, it always tough.
I never was a big gambler, but I stopped altogether (even Lotto tickets) many years ago, because losing always hurt worse than winning felt good. I just hated losing.
It's the same with elections.

So with eager anticipation, we vote and then we live with the results, like or not.

By the way, not many people who drop by this blog omit to vote, but if you are oner of those, don't feel bad despite the holier-than-thou rhetoric of those who say that if you don't vote, you can't complain.

The real mark of a democracy is freedom, and those who demand that you vote are the same who demand a greater government intervention  in our lives.
Freedom of choice includes the freedom not to participate. I loathe those commercials beseeching people to vote, they are a waste of money and a misguided effort to tell us how to live.
Those who don't vote gives more power to those who care, and that somehow in my humble opinion, is actually a good thing!...

And now focus your attention, if you please, on the comments section, LIVE BLOGGING starts at 8:00PM.
Please participate!

Allez Hop....Let's Go!

Live Blogging -Election Night

I'm going to try something different election night, my first live blogging event where I will scoot down to hang out in the comments section alongside you and offer real time opinions on the unfolding election.

 I will be watching the two French channels and would appreciate some of your comments on what's going on over at the English channels. I hope some of you will help make this event interesting, having a conversation with fellow contributors across the province, the country and indeed the world. Please make it a date, 8:00 until we're done, I'll see you all in the comments section only, right under tomorrow's blog piece.

Now this being a live event I want to stress that spelling, syntax and proper sentence construction is forgiven, so don't go crazy editing and re-editing your comments. Again French and English comments are welcome.
Rants are allowed, but please try to keep it somewhat clean, let's not degenerate into a swearfest.
Also texting shorthand is allowed IMHO, OMG.

LET'S MAKE IT A DATE!

As for final election notes, the resurgence of the CAQ has indeed taken everyone by surprise, me included. I guess I should have heeded my own advice which I have dished out on many occasions, that is the fact that in Quebec voter intentions can change, literally overnight.

At any rate, I 'll repeat what I said before, that a Liberal minority is the same as a Liberal majority, the CAQ in no mood for another election, that is  until they see themselves as legitimate contenders for forming a government. It goes to Pauline's rank stupidity and hubris that she finds herself on the wrong side of the polls, after calling an election based on no reason other than the fact that the PQ was ahead at that time.
Let's not forget that 25% of voters still haven't made up their minds, which is a good thing for the Liberals, because as we've seen in the past, most of the undecided break towards the Liberals.

Quebec voters giveth and Quebec voters taketh away, politicians who assume too much usually pay the price at the polls as did Jean Charest by calling a premature election himself, an election that saw him lose his own seat as well. It was a case of rolling the dice, something voters don't appreciate, where in fact elections are looked upon as a bothersome and unnecessary evil.

Over the course of this election I've read hundreds of articles and can say without a doubt, that just one of them offered any real background, insight and substance.

Yes, far and away the very best article written on the election belongs to Vincent Marissal Of La Presse

I'm offering an English translation for those with no French, but would ask those who do read French to do the author the courtesy of reading the article over at  LA PRESSE.

Le choc, la charge, la charte

Vincent Marissal Of La Presse

Over the decades , the Parti Québécois (PQ) explored many avenues to explain and promote the sovereignist option. In the 70s and 80s, under René Lévesque, it was primarily a matter of the heart, the aspiration and evolution of the Quiet Revolution and the completed political emancipation. The project revolved around a national affirmation.

Then, under Jacques Parizeau, the PQ added figures, studies, a roadmap of sorts. Lucien Bouchard, the "savior" of 1995, strongly emphasized the pride of the people of Quebec.

Protecting the French language , of course, has always been a central concern but never has a sovereigntist leader, before the era of Marois,  gone so far in the identity sector.

Born from the post-traumatic shock of the collapse of 2007, the identity of the PQ curve reached its peak with the introduction of the draft of the Charter of Secularism, last fall. Between these two events, the players patiently forged a new identity under the PQ. Our columnists chronicled the humiliating defeat of 2007 up to the sensational arrival of Pierre Karl Péladeau .

The shock

March 26, 2007... election night in Quebec. To it's shock and dismay, the Parti Québécois recorded its worst election result since 1970 , with 28% of votes.

With 36 seats, the PQ , led by André Boisclair , found itself in second position as opposition in the National Assembly and was then shaken by another internal crisis. The rest is history : André Boisclair tried to hang on, but his caucus finally showed him the door, paving the way for the comeback of Pauline Marois.

Every electoral defeat comes with its own lessons. For the PQ , the situation was clear: CAQ leader Mario Dumont has cut the grass from under foot by capturing the identity issue.

At the beginning of 2007, events moved swiftly. The Hérouxville " Code of Life," led to the outbreak of public clashes with some religious groups and the formation of the Bouchard-Taylor commission, Quebec was living a veritable psychodrama over reasonable accommodations, and in that regard, the ADQ has stolen the limelight.

The only good news for the PQ was that the Liberal government of Jean Charest's minority would have to return to the polls before long. The PQ needed a plan to bring the PQ into the identity game, now afoot.

The first building block was laid by Jean -François Lisé, who had just launched his latest book, entitled 'Nous,' in which he insisted on strengthening the French language, the adoption of a Quebec Constitution and the creation of a Quebec citizenship. The PQ, now led by Pauline Marois, deposited a ​​bill providing for the adoption of a Quebec Constitution. It also provides for Quebec citizenship (and thus the right to stand for office,) whereby  an immigrant would be required to have an "appropriate" command of the French language.The PQ brought back this idea during the 2012 election, but not yet the present Charter of Values ​​or Secularism.

But ever since 2007, behind the scenes, intellectuals were busy preparing the Parti Quebecois for a sharp turn (virage) over the identity issue.

La Charge

After the arrival of Pauline Marois and the collapse of the ADQ, the stars suddenly aligned for the PQ.In Pauline Marois' entourage, sociologist Jacques Beauchemin  now occupied a more prominent role.  His regular attendance at caucus meetings irritated some  of the members who felt that he took up too much space for a non-elected. His views on identity were not shared by all  and some were offended to see his views imposed.The more progressive members and those identified as in the economic team were worried and annoyed.

"He took up a lot of space, made presentations, taking notes and sometimes leading the discussions, said a former member of the PQ .

"This was the key to the 'virage' over the identity issue for the PQ, where some didn't want to be trapped by the ADQ a second time. We were now into the defining of '' us. ''

According to a former PQ chief of staff  who witnessed many discussions on the identity question, it is also then that Mathieu Bock -Côté and Éric Bédard arrived on the scene. The first, also a sociologist, was a protégé of Jacques Beauchemin, the second, an influential historian in nationalist circles (he is also a former president of the youth wing of the PQ ) .

"They were traumatized by the 'reasonable accommodation' debate and sought a policy response, says our source. It is at this point that the conservative fringe of the PQ established itself and Ms. Marois fell in, although she was not really a supporter to begin with.

"These intellectuals were driven by a sense of urgency caused by demographics [Immigration and aging population,]" he resumed. "They knew that Montreal was essentially lost to the cause and they feared losing the rest of Quebec. They were able to solidify their thoughts and moved into political action." he added. "According to them, if sovereignty couldn't pass, another lever was required. "

Was Jean-François Lisée under this new influence, he who said in his book to be accustomed to the Islamic veil, believing perhaps that Quebec had more urgent business?

"Jean -François Lisée was hesitant, but saw the advantages in this 'virage,' said another source involved in some discussions in the Marois government. According to our source Mr. Lisée was breathing hot and cold..

Upon the depositing of the draft charter, Lisée advocated flexibility for cities (including Montreal, for which he is the  minister responsible) , but then retreated  to the hard line (the exemption of up to five years). He also wanted a grandfather clause for state employees,  especially those employees who wear a religious sign, limiting the prohibition to new employees.

Another character essential to the implementation of the PQ's new identity policy was a certain Pierre Karl Péladeau, star candidate in Saint-Jérôme. His arrival in politics was not as sudden as it seemed and the outcry he created among columnists, politicians and intellectuals certainly played an important role in the PQ identity curve.

The Charter

A former member of the leadership of the Parti Québécois, very active in the sovereignty movement for years , says that in 2009, Bernard Drainville confided to PQ militants that PKP wished to enter politics.

The political debate and in particular, the identity issue, was of particular interest to Péladeau. With a degree in philosophy before taking the reins of the company founded by his father, he liked to talk and enjoy the company of intellectuals.

He hung around with  sociologist Mathieu Bock-Côté and historian Éric Bédard, both columnists comfortably in the lap of the Quebecor stable. Last summer, these two attended a meeting with  PKP in the company of Pauline Marois. The PQ leader also asked Mr. Bock -Côté to stand for this election, but he declined the offer.

Mr. Péladeau met with other chroniclers of his media empire, like the ubiquitous Richard Martineau, and his presence was noted  at the book launching  'La laïcité, ça s'impose,'  by Louise Mailloux, a cegep professor of philosophy and PQ candidate in Gouin .

Péladeau also sits on the board of directors of the Lionel-Groulx Fondation, which is funded by,among others,  Quebecor and populated by many influential members of the sovereignty movement.

Mathieu Bock-Côté, Éric Bédard, Joseph Facal (who has always kept close to Pauline Marois ) all wrote for or placed prominantly in the  Quebecor media empire. Not only people like Jacques Beauchemin, but also historian Frédéric Bastien ( The Battle of London) and Yvon Thériault, of the University of Ottawa , forming what a former PQ apparatchik called "the most influential intellectual group in Quebec "

"It's really a school of conservative identity, says a source. They firmly believe in the impact of a big player in the history of a people and  cite de Gaulle as an example, who they view as a great helmsman. "

They apparently believed that person might be PKP , but the famous "fist in the air "and his willingness to "create a country" seem however to have had a counterproductive effect .

"PKP perhaps went a little overboard for St. Jerome, but had no choice but to "make a proclamation of faith" to calm the sovereigntist PQ left, uneasy over his arrival,"  says a source in Quebec. The arrival of PKP should have been a crucial step in the PQ counter-attack over identity and should have affixed a certain seal of prestige and legitimacy to their national aspirations .

According to a source who attended the discussions at the very highest levels in the Marois government, following the policy shift in identity it  was decided that once a majority, the PQ would adopt the Charter as presented, without any derogation clause. It would no doubt be challenged and be beaten in federal court, which would provide a powerful tool for sovereignty.

That was the plan,  but the reality for now is that every day, Pauline Marois must defend the spectre of a third referendum with the Charter relegated to a minor role in this campaign.

 Very interesting read....

And so readers a bit of levity after that.
Here is Quebec humorist Guy Nantel proving a point about the intelligence of the average voter.

Nantel is one of am excellent crop Quebec's of comedians, with a sarcastic wit that sets Quebec humour apart.

See you here. 8:00PM

Liberals to Form Majority Government

Quebec's soon to be 31st Premier

Over the years I've conducted private polls for various candidates that I organized for.

These are the famous 'internal' polls that we all hear about but know nothing about. I always found that my polling was in fact more accurate because we used experienced callers doing the questioning and spent quite a lot of time qualifying respondents as to their real intention to vote.

My polling was always restricted to a single riding so getting a sample that was representative was the key, making sure that the different neighbourhoods in the riding were represented equally and that language and religious demographics were respected.

Our questions were different than what regular pollsters ask, because fisrt things first, we wanted voting patterns from only those who would vote.

So our first question qualified whether or not that person was likely to vote, if not, we moved along to the next voter.

The people who ask the questions, get a sense of what they are hearing after a night of perhaps 50 phone calls and interpreting the data is more than just counting up answers.

At any rate, polling has actually lost accuracy over the years, for a variety of reasons, with the major polling firms usually under-reporting the more conservative choice, this across Canada and highlighted in several other provincial elections.

This under-reporting happened in both of the last provincial elections in Quebec where the Liberals garnered more support then the pollsters gave them credit for.
However that being said, the numbers being reported now are so stark that the Liberals cannot help but win a healthy majority government this time around.

All this of course contingent on the fact that the polls are relatively accurate. Always a big IF.

I've done my own analysis, using a methodology I made, developed  and adapted by myself.
First I calculated the difference in support between the final election results in 2012 and the latest polling data avaiable.

In any given riding one can assume that with all things being equal, the votes each party received in 2012 can be adjusted up or down by the percentage change attributed to each party in the table above.

For example, if the PQ got 10,000 votes in a certain riding, they could reasonably expect to get about 9,000, or about 10% less as indicated in the table above.

As for the Liberals, the calculation has to be massaged a bit, because their support has gone way up in the franophone ridings and not neccessarily in English ridings where the support was very high to begin with. You wouldn't expect the Liberal vote total to go up substantially in a West Montreal riding, because the number is so high to begin with.
For this reason, I'm artificially boosting the 26% increase to 28% in francophone ridings, to more accurately reflect reality.
As for the CAQ and QS, the criteria remains the same as the PQ.

Of course one has to make adjustments in certain races where new candidates who come into the race, and change the dynamic like Pierre-Karl Péladeau. All this of course is subjuctive, until specific numbers are examined within the riding.
A case in point is Francois Legault, which most polls show him running behind. Somehow I don't think he'll be defeated, it's sometimes just a gut feeling.

Here's how ThreehundredEight.com sees it;

At any rate, given all that and applying my methodology to the 125 ridings across Quebec, I've come up with my own projection, based on yesterdays poll numbers.
After reading a local article about Nicolet riding and a late poll there, I'm revising the numbers below by adding one more seat to the Liberals (75) and subtracting another from the PQ. (38)

It's fun to stick out your neck with a prediction, I've had a reasonable batting average this year in that respect and so if I'm wrong, well.......

At any rate, I don't want to say I told you so, but I've always warned that Quebec elections swing widely and quickly.
Calling elections because of favourable numbers instead of an impelling reason is often a recipe for disaster.

Let us remember that Francois Legault of the CAQ practically begged Pauline to work something out over the Charter in order to avoid an election.

Even Charter hardliners who wanted the law passed 'as is' were willing to put a little water in their wine in order to get it done.
But Drainville convinced the party that an election could be won over the divisive issue and led the party down the garden path to electoral oblivion.

There's going to be a lot of acrimony over the debacle and a lot of finger pointing, followed by the traditional jockeying for position.

For me the interesting thing to watch is PKP, a cruel fate to be elected to four years of obscurity.  His performance this election was dismal and the bloom is definately off his apple. I'm not sure he is even leader material and the PQ knives may very well be out for him as well.
Perhaps PKP is hoping that he will actually lose is election in St. Jerome.
The  PQ will have some big decisions to make, especially when it comes to sovereignty and referendums.
Is it time to admit the truth that sovereignty is no longer a viable option and re-orient the party?

Hmm... time will tell.

In the meantime, I cannot tell you how much I am enjoying watching these last days, with the axe about to fall on the PQ who are on their way to their just desserts.

Dead men walking.....

Marois' Hubby, Claude Blanchet, Seals PQ Fate

Would you buy a used car from this guy?

A business acquaintance of mine once described Claude Blanchet as the type of person that after shaking hands with him, you would be well advised to count your fingers.

Such is Blanchet's oily reputation, notwithstanding the lawsuits and threatening letters he uses to mitigate the perception that he is one sharp practitioner.

It isn't surprising that Blanchet has been hidden from view during this last election campaign and although a devoted and committed spouse is de riguer during a successful campaign, Pauline has wisely left her albatross at home, preferring not to remind the public who she is married to and the controversy that surrounds him.

Claude Blanchet is in fact one of the major reasons that the PQ campaign fizzled so badly, the controversy over the famous 'deal or no deal' that surrounded him at the Charbonneau Commission cut the legs off of the PQ strategy to run the campaign over the issue of corruption, the same strategy that propelled the PQ to office the last time around.

But Philippe Couillard warned Pauline early on that if she was going to make unsubstantiated corruption allegations against him or the Liberal party, he would return the favour and dredge up Blanchet's past and his alleged involvement in influence-peddling on behalf of Quebec's largest union, the FTQ.

The PQ campaign melted down for more reasons than just Blanchet, the arrival of PKP and the resurrection of the referendum debate was absolutely toxic, with voters turning away from Marois and PKP as if they were carrying a case of Ebola virus, but make no mistake, Blanchet cost the PQ the ethics card.

For those who haven't been apprised of recent developments, the ever shit-disturbing journalist, Alain Gravel of Radio-Canada, ran a story that alleged that Blanchet collected funds from an engineering firm for Pauline's leadership campaign, promising access to the leader should she win.

"Claude Blanchet, the husband of Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois, is denying a Radio-Canada report that says he solicited a $25,000 political contribution from a Montreal-area businessman for his wife’s leadership bid.
The report by investigative reporter Alain Gravel for the Radio-Canada program Enquête quotes an affidavit from a businessman with a long history in Montreal’s engineering sector dated March 25, 2014. " Link

The story reported that the $25,000 in donations came from the firm itself, which collected cheques from employees and then reimbursed the money afterwards. This of course, to remain within the law which limits the amount an individual may contribute.

The story was supported by an affidavit sworn by the businessman who made the allegations. You can see the affidavit HERE
But for those with no French, I've taken the liberty to translate it below;

I         blank        domiciled and resident of       blank     in the Province of Quebec, declare solemnly that;

1.  I        blank    the         blank     of the engineering firm   blank
2. I knew Mr. Claude Blanchet for at least fifteen(15) years, from when he was president of the  Société générale de financement and spent time with him at social and charitble events.    
3. In the Spring of 2007, I knew that Mr. Claude Blanchet was the husband of Madame Pauline Marois;
4. At that time, in 2007, after the announcement of André  Boisclair's departure and in the framework of an eventual leadership campaign of the Parti Quebecois, Mr. Claude Blanchet met me at my  Montreal office (      blank      ) and solicited me for a $25,000 donation.
5. I then asked my organization to get me $25,000 in cheques from different donors, of which none were to exceed $3,000 per contributor.
6. I then met Blanchet again in my office a few weeks later and placed in his hands directly, an envelope containing the contribution cheques totalling the aforementioned amount of $25,000.
7. The principle reason for my implication in this fundraising activity was to gain privileged access to Madame Pauline Marois and I did use this privileged contact by way of Claude Blanchet.
8. All these alleged facts in this affidavit are true to my personal knowledge.

Pauline first tried to spin the whole affair as payback from anonymous victims of her anti-corruption campaign. Blanchet flatly denied the allegation, saying it never happened, but the anonymous allegation became more real when two individuals from AXOR, the engineering firm involved, stepped forward on Wednesday and identified themselves as having been used as prête-noms (proxies) for the illegal donations.

"Two engineering-consulting group executives have gone on the record, saying their names were used illegally to hide to source of political contributions made to Marois' leadership bid in 2007.

Jacques Grenier, the CEO of Axor, and Maurice Choquette, internal auditor, have told Le Soleil newspaper that though their names appear on Marois' 2007 donor list, the money did not really come from them.
According to Le Soleil, Grenier says he and his colleagues used a system of fake names to fund Marois' bid, though he says he never met with Marois' husband, Claude Blanchet." Link

For Blanchet, his rash decision to deny that he collected the money may come back to haunt him, the facts are easy enough to verify.
Had he taken a moment to consider his alternatives, he might well have admitted taking the money, but in good faith that the money was raised ethically, from different donors. After all, if it happened as alleged in the affidavit, it wasn't him who actually broke the law, but the company that passed along the illegal money. Blanchet could have successfully feigned ignorance as to the provenance of the money.

Of all the mud flung so far in this election campaign, this is the unkindest cut of all, because the unlikable Blanchet is a target that nobody dares defend.

This time Blanchet will have to face the music, he cannot send mis-en-demures in an attempt to silence the critics, those involved are ready to stare down the bully, seemingly confident in their facts.
No way Radio-Canada would let so damaging a story go to air so late in the campaign without having the facts in order.

And so nothing has gone right for the PQ this election and as time winds down, a desperate Pauline continues to go off message to her and the party's detriment.

A PQ candidate running in a riding she has no chance of winning, made an egregious gaffe in stating that if a Doctor refused to take off his kippa, he would lose his job after the year of transition that the charter of Values would provide.
It was a singularly stupid thing to say, considering that the debate where she made the comments was held before a decidedly hostile Vanier College audience.

Compounding the error, Pauline then defended the statement as true, confirming that people would indeed lose their jobs over the Charter, an assertion that cemented her appearance as a heartless fanatic and ideologue.
This was the second time in a week that Pauline defended the indefensible. You'll recall her standing up supporting Janette Bertrand after the unfortunate Rich/ Muslim Fundamentalist/McGill Students fiasco.

It's over. As the old saying goes....Stick a fork in Pauline, she's done.


Further reading...
William Marsden of the Montreal Gazette wrote an exposé on Claude Blanchet and how he and Pauline built their home on public land.
Blanchet sued for defamation, but settled for nothing.

The Gazette has pulled that article, but interestingly it lives on at vigile.net

How estate was built on public, farm lands

or go HERE for a bunch of stories over the land deal.