Sunday, April 6, 2014

Live Blogging -Election Night

I'm going to try something different election night, my first live blogging event where I will scoot down to hang out in the comments section alongside you and offer real time opinions on the unfolding election.

 I will be watching the two French channels and would appreciate some of your comments on what's going on over at the English channels. I hope some of you will help make this event interesting, having a conversation with fellow contributors across the province, the country and indeed the world. Please make it a date, 8:00 until we're done, I'll see you all in the comments section only, right under tomorrow's blog piece.

Now this being a live event I want to stress that spelling, syntax and proper sentence construction is forgiven, so don't go crazy editing and re-editing your comments. Again French and English comments are welcome.
Rants are allowed, but please try to keep it somewhat clean, let's not degenerate into a swearfest.
Also texting shorthand is allowed IMHO, OMG.

LET'S MAKE IT A DATE!

As for final election notes, the resurgence of the CAQ has indeed taken everyone by surprise, me included. I guess I should have heeded my own advice which I have dished out on many occasions, that is the fact that in Quebec voter intentions can change, literally overnight.

At any rate, I 'll repeat what I said before, that a Liberal minority is the same as a Liberal majority, the CAQ in no mood for another election, that is  until they see themselves as legitimate contenders for forming a government. It goes to Pauline's rank stupidity and hubris that she finds herself on the wrong side of the polls, after calling an election based on no reason other than the fact that the PQ was ahead at that time.
Let's not forget that 25% of voters still haven't made up their minds, which is a good thing for the Liberals, because as we've seen in the past, most of the undecided break towards the Liberals.

Quebec voters giveth and Quebec voters taketh away, politicians who assume too much usually pay the price at the polls as did Jean Charest by calling a premature election himself, an election that saw him lose his own seat as well. It was a case of rolling the dice, something voters don't appreciate, where in fact elections are looked upon as a bothersome and unnecessary evil.

Over the course of this election I've read hundreds of articles and can say without a doubt, that just one of them offered any real background, insight and substance.

Yes, far and away the very best article written on the election belongs to Vincent Marissal Of La Presse

I'm offering an English translation for those with no French, but would ask those who do read French to do the author the courtesy of reading the article over at  LA PRESSE.

Le choc, la charge, la charte

Vincent Marissal Of La Presse
Over the decades , the Parti Québécois (PQ) explored many avenues to explain and promote the sovereignist option. In the 70s and 80s, under René Lévesque, it was primarily a matter of the heart, the aspiration and evolution of the Quiet Revolution and the completed political emancipation. The project revolved around a national affirmation.
Then, under Jacques Parizeau, the PQ added figures, studies, a roadmap of sorts. Lucien Bouchard, the "savior" of 1995, strongly emphasized the pride of the people of Quebec.
Protecting the French language , of course, has always been a central concern but never has a sovereigntist leader, before the era of Marois,  gone so far in the identity sector.
Born from the post-traumatic shock of the collapse of 2007, the identity of the PQ curve reached its peak with the introduction of the draft of the Charter of Secularism, last fall. Between these two events, the players patiently forged a new identity under the PQ. Our columnists chronicled the humiliating defeat of 2007 up to the sensational arrival of Pierre Karl Péladeau .
The shock
March 26, 2007... election night in Quebec. To it's shock and dismay, the Parti Québécois recorded its worst election result since 1970 , with 28% of votes.
With 36 seats, the PQ , led by André Boisclair , found itself in second position as opposition in the National Assembly and was then shaken by another internal crisis. The rest is history : André Boisclair tried to hang on, but his caucus finally showed him the door, paving the way for the comeback of Pauline Marois.
Every electoral defeat comes with its own lessons. For the PQ , the situation was clear: CAQ leader Mario Dumont has cut the grass from under foot by capturing the identity issue.
At the beginning of 2007, events moved swiftly. The Hérouxville " Code of Life," led to the outbreak of public clashes with some religious groups and the formation of the Bouchard-Taylor commission, Quebec was living a veritable psychodrama over reasonable accommodations, and in that regard, the ADQ has stolen the limelight.
The only good news for the PQ was that the Liberal government of Jean Charest's minority would have to return to the polls before long. The PQ needed a plan to bring the PQ into the identity game, now afoot.
The first building block was laid by Jean -François Lisé, who had just launched his latest book, entitled 'Nous,' in which he insisted on strengthening the French language, the adoption of a Quebec Constitution and the creation of a Quebec citizenship. The PQ, now led by Pauline Marois, deposited a ​​bill providing for the adoption of a Quebec Constitution. It also provides for Quebec citizenship (and thus the right to stand for office,) whereby  an immigrant would be required to have an "appropriate" command of the French language.The PQ brought back this idea during the 2012 election, but not yet the present Charter of Values ​​or Secularism.
But ever since 2007, behind the scenes, intellectuals were busy preparing the Parti Quebecois for a sharp turn (virage) over the identity issue.
La Charge
After the arrival of Pauline Marois and the collapse of the ADQ, the stars suddenly aligned for the PQ.In Pauline Marois' entourage, sociologist Jacques Beauchemin  now occupied a more prominent role.  His regular attendance at caucus meetings irritated some  of the members who felt that he took up too much space for a non-elected. His views on identity were not shared by all  and some were offended to see his views imposed.The more progressive members and those identified as in the economic team were worried and annoyed.
"He took up a lot of space, made presentations, taking notes and sometimes leading the discussions, said a former member of the PQ .
"This was the key to the 'virage' over the identity issue for the PQ, where some didn't want to be trapped by the ADQ a second time. We were now into the defining of '' us. ''
According to a former PQ chief of staff  who witnessed many discussions on the identity question, it is also then that Mathieu Bock -Côté and Éric Bédard arrived on the scene. The first, also a sociologist, was a protégé of Jacques Beauchemin, the second, an influential historian in nationalist circles (he is also a former president of the youth wing of the PQ ) .
"They were traumatized by the 'reasonable accommodation' debate and sought a policy response, says our source. It is at this point that the conservative fringe of the PQ established itself and Ms. Marois fell in, although she was not really a supporter to begin with.
"These intellectuals were driven by a sense of urgency caused by demographics [Immigration and aging population,]" he resumed. "They knew that Montreal was essentially lost to the cause and they feared losing the rest of Quebec. They were able to solidify their thoughts and moved into political action." he added. "According to them, if sovereignty couldn't pass, another lever was required. "
Was Jean-François Lisée under this new influence, he who said in his book to be accustomed to the Islamic veil, believing perhaps that Quebec had more urgent business?
"Jean -François Lisée was hesitant, but saw the advantages in this 'virage,' said another source involved in some discussions in the Marois government. According to our source Mr. Lisée was breathing hot and cold..
Upon the depositing of the draft charter, Lisée advocated flexibility for cities (including Montreal, for which he is the  minister responsible) , but then retreated  to the hard line (the exemption of up to five years). He also wanted a grandfather clause for state employees,  especially those employees who wear a religious sign, limiting the prohibition to new employees.
Another character essential to the implementation of the PQ's new identity policy was a certain Pierre Karl Péladeau, star candidate in Saint-Jérôme. His arrival in politics was not as sudden as it seemed and the outcry he created among columnists, politicians and intellectuals certainly played an important role in the PQ identity curve.
The Charter
A former member of the leadership of the Parti Québécois, very active in the sovereignty movement for years , says that in 2009, Bernard Drainville confided to PQ militants that PKP wished to enter politics.
The political debate and in particular, the identity issue, was of particular interest to Péladeau. With a degree in philosophy before taking the reins of the company founded by his father, he liked to talk and enjoy the company of intellectuals.
He hung around with  sociologist Mathieu Bock-Côté and historian Éric Bédard, both columnists comfortably in the lap of the Quebecor stable. Last summer, these two attended a meeting with  PKP in the company of Pauline Marois. The PQ leader also asked Mr. Bock -Côté to stand for this election, but he declined the offer.
Mr. Péladeau met with other chroniclers of his media empire, like the ubiquitous Richard Martineau, and his presence was noted  at the book launching  'La laïcité, ça s'impose,'  by Louise Mailloux, a cegep professor of philosophy and PQ candidate in Gouin .
Péladeau also sits on the board of directors of the Lionel-Groulx Fondation, which is funded by,among others,  Quebecor and populated by many influential members of the sovereignty movement.
Mathieu Bock-Côté, Éric Bédard, Joseph Facal (who has always kept close to Pauline Marois ) all wrote for or placed prominantly in the  Quebecor media empire. Not only people like Jacques Beauchemin, but also historian Frédéric Bastien ( The Battle of London) and Yvon Thériault, of the University of Ottawa , forming what a former PQ apparatchik called "the most influential intellectual group in Quebec "
"It's really a school of conservative identity, says a source. They firmly believe in the impact of a big player in the history of a people and  cite de Gaulle as an example, who they view as a great helmsman. "
They apparently believed that person might be PKP , but the famous "fist in the air "and his willingness to "create a country" seem however to have had a counterproductive effect .
"PKP perhaps went a little overboard for St. Jerome, but had no choice but to "make a proclamation of faith" to calm the sovereigntist PQ left, uneasy over his arrival,"  says a source in Quebec. The arrival of PKP should have been a crucial step in the PQ counter-attack over identity and should have affixed a certain seal of prestige and legitimacy to their national aspirations .
According to a source who attended the discussions at the very highest levels in the Marois government, following the policy shift in identity it  was decided that once a majority, the PQ would adopt the Charter as presented, without any derogation clause. It would no doubt be challenged and be beaten in federal court, which would provide a powerful tool for sovereignty.
That was the plan,  but the reality for now is that every day, Pauline Marois must defend the spectre of a third referendum with the Charter relegated to a minor role in this campaign.
 Very interesting read....

And so readers a bit of levity after that.
Here is Quebec humorist Guy Nantel proving a point about the intelligence of the average voter.

Nantel is one of am excellent crop Quebec's of comedians, with a sarcastic wit that sets Quebec humour apart.



See you here. 8:00PM

32 comments:

  1. Actually, Guy Nantel has terrible jokes.
    And about that vox-pop, you've got to know he selected the worst respondants out of the lot. Another team asked the same questions at the same spot, and only got a few wrong answers.

    The only «humoriste» that makes one think and laugh, to my knowledge, is Boucar Diouf.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Vox pop: Guy Nantel se force-t-il pour dénicher des nonos?

      Le dernier vox pop de Guy Nantel a, comme à son habitude, fait le tour du web et alarmé bien des gens quant à la santé du savoir collectif québécois… mais est-ce qu’ils ont raison de s’inquiéter ou est-ce que Guy Nantel, qui clame avoir gardé la majorité des réponses, se force pour dénicher des nonos?

      C’est ce à quoi Léa Stréliski tente de répondre, en utilisant un modus operandi similaire à celui de l’humoriste.

      Est-ce que Editor est tombé dans le panneau?

      Delete
    2. For Pete's sake...it's a joke...it's called comedy.
      IT'S NOT A DOCUMENTARY!!!

      Delete
    3. Remember Rick Mercer's, "Talking to Americans." Of course, they all owe a debt to Art Linklater, but that dates us too much... :)

      The line in that article about Montreal being already "lost" is so ironic. In three years in will be the 50th anniversary of Expo 67. It seems so long ago that Montreal was all about welcoming the world and looking to the future with hope but those feelings will return. Maybe a spontaneous party in 2017 (because nothing official is being planned to mark the anniversary).

      Delete
  2. "Marois will certainly have to quit tomorrow night... At what point does the party begin to decide that maybe it should move on to all of the other issues that are so important for Quebec. I think there's gonna be a soul searching within the PQ now which is gonna tear them to pieces... She made so many mistakes such in incoherent and inconsistent campaign, based of fear, fear of identity politics, fear on breakup of the country, she deserves to go down hard and she will tomorrow night."

    Craig Oliver on CTV Question Period.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you are repeating yourself troy. what if everyone copied their comments from post to post? stop that will you troy?

      Delete
    2. One more time Troy, that's worth repeating, (since it will have to sink in for some people) and if you can manage it, in bigger font, lol yeah!

      Delete
    3. All Craig Oliver did was state the obvious from Xenophobic Politics 101: Fear, fear, fear. Racist politics always plays on the fear and paranoia of man (and woman). There is plenty of lying, plenty of inaccuracy, no rhyme or reason.

      This is D-Day (E-Day?), so for so-called federalists, vote and pray accordingly.

      If the doc gets a majority, his first act better be to amend the electoral districts to someting more balanced than it is right now. Oh, and Ed: Re language reform? Faggedaboudit!

      Delete
  3. Les libéraux ont "un énorme vice caché", malheureusement cette information ne pourra être divulgée avant l'élection de demain...

    Dommage, car nous avons le droit de savoir.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Fyu8I1bq1U&feature=youtu.be

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  4. Music to my ears to see the CAQ surging..Quebecers are waking up..well at least the francophone ones..its time for a new party. Its not the time to give the Liberals another 4 years so they can dither. We need urgent action on the debt and the economy..the CAQ are the ones who can do it. A Liberal minority with CAQ holding power..almost perfect.

    Prediction.
    Liberals 60 seats
    PQ 36
    CAQ 26
    QS 3

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  5. Editor, many thanks for your frequent blogs over the last few weeks. Indispensable ! I look forward to your live blogging tomorrow.
    "'May you live in interesting times"....etc.'

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous Buster of Shit ArgumentsSunday, April 6, 2014 at 7:28:00 PM EDT

    My Predictions:

    Liberals 64 seats
    PQ 39
    CAQ 18
    QS 3

    Now, I know what you're saying...that doesn't balance out to 125! I'm just counting on the fact that Marois will quit and therefore that will instantly diminish the seat count by one.

    And it seems the Editor and I share the sentiment that a PLQ minority comes out to the same thing as a majority. No one will want to engage in this exercise again for quite a while yet.

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  7. Marois does not have the class of a Premier. wWhat is she doing tonight? The night before she hopes to become Premier she is at a party spooning out food to people like an old lady at a Church bazaar.. Ed

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  8. MY PREDICTIONS

    LIBERALS 75

    PQ 46

    CAQ 4 Ed

    ReplyDelete
  9. My Prediction

    Liberals: 70

    PQ: 34

    CAQ: 18

    QS: 3

    I feel the CAQ will get a boost from the francophone media coverage, just as the NDP did from the media during their "Orange Crush"

    ReplyDelete
  10. Not predicting, just relaying from Too Close to Call:

    QLP: 66
    PQ: 47
    CAQ: 10
    QS: 2

    ReplyDelete
  11. My Prediction

    Liberals 124
    PQ 1
    CAQ 0

    Peladeau wins his riding.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't bet your house (or your trois et demi shall I say) on this

      Delete
    2. my prediction

      NDP 73
      Liberals 27

      merci
      Wild rose 5

      Delete
  12. Wouldn't it be funny if this were the result tomorrow... (slightly deja vu?). :)

    Liberals = 54
    PQ = 50
    CAQ = 19
    QS = 2

    ReplyDelete
  13. I half want to wake up to the news but this sounds fun.

    I too very much hope that Péladeau wins St Jerome today. Hell I'd vote for him out of a sense of punishment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hâte de voir les "liberals" minoritaires passer dans l'enfer de la commission d'enquête.

      Delete
    2. Ah, poor little SR - four more years of obscurity and watching from the sidelines while a real political party takes care of business. As for your precious commission, let's not forget that Marois will no longer have government protection. Her and hubby will have to finally answer for their decadence.

      Now go back to hitting those phones in the vain hope that you have hope. :-)

      Delete
    3. UPAC: le PQ somme le PLQ d'identifier les 11 personnes visées par une enquête

      http://tinyurl.com/lgd798z

      Delete
    4. "a real political party takes care of business"

      Nous avons effectivement constaté leur "efficacité" durant leurs 9 années au pouvoir.

      Delete
    5. What @Press 9, Paco Lebel, and all PQ supporters fail to understand is that the Liberals will be re-elected with everyone knowing they have been corrupt, and with the population keeping an eye on them.

      We know they have been corrupt. We know the PQ have been corrupt as well.

      But we will be watching.

      Kevin

      Delete
  14. Out of the Ottawa Citizen this morning by Michael Den Tandt:

    IT'S ALL ABOUT MONTREAL
    No Quebec government would ever accept the partitioning off of Montreal, the beautiful, beating heart of La Belle Province. Yet if it weren't for the Island of Montreal, with its two million inhabitants, it's traditions of bilingualism, multiculturalism and vibrant pluralism, the Parti Quebecois would have a much clearer field, numerically speaking. For the separatists, Montreal is both a treasure and a curse. That what we in the ROC call a conundrum. One hopes that Pauline Marois will have ample free time to consider a solution in the years ahead.

    Right on! Go liberals - we need a majority to kick the charter and Bill 14 right to the curb. No more concessions to the separatist militants in quebec!

    Would love to see Marois and Peladeau both go down big time.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous Buster of Shit ArgumentsMonday, April 7, 2014 at 7:14:00 AM EDT

    Legault is so excited about his anti-campaign, that he sees no reason to shy away from giving his wife a public titty-grab:

    http://screencast.com/t/jlY2nlfbp

    :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was an utter turn-off btw

      Delete
  16. Not sure where popo was over the weekend or who she was pandering to...(and we don't care), but she invited all the "FRANCOPHONES" in the province to vote for her. She doesn't even make a pretense of representing ALL quebecers. Have you ever witnessed such poor form from any party leader, provincial, federal or even municipal? Just sickening.

    She needs to leave the political landscape NOW!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Don't get complacent.....
    Enjoy the good news polls, but take them with a grain of salt.
    Get out and vote my friends...
    Soyez sage..
    S.V.P........soyez sage.
    OMG...
    I'm so excited.

    ReplyDelete