For Die-Hards, Bloc Collapse as Painful as Referendum Loss

Ever since Monday night, there's been a lot of tears and hand-wringing among committed sovereignists, who watched the painful implosion of a hitherto beloved separatist institution.

Indeed, for separatists, watching the Bloc Quebecois going down to ignominious defeat was probably as painful as watching your favourite boxer being trashed for several rounds before collapsing to the canvas only to suffer the inevitable and humiliating ten-count, followed by the referee's emphatic signal, that the fight is over,
K/O... Kaput!....The fat lady has sung!

It was like referendum night all over again..

Forgive my hyperbolic metaphor, but I'm feeling mighty smug and self-satisfied.

I don't usually take pleasure at someone else's misfortune, but in this case, I daresay that I'll make an exception.
And so, I'll take some time to revel in the Bloc's wipeout as well as time to celebrate a majority government.

A special treat for me is the reaction of the you-know-whos, like Louis Prefontaine who is frothing at the mouth in rage and humiliation. Read Une race de ti-counes{FR}  SWEET!

Some sovereignists are trying to spin the Bloc defeat as something positive for the separatist movement, but let's face it, four years of a majority Conservative government must be as inviting as a trip to the dentist for root canal surgery. Read this drivel,  Un excellent pas vers l’Indépendance{FR}

Truthfully, I didn't care whether it was a Liberal or Conservative majority, as long as the separatists were dealt out of the political equation.

Ironically, with almost 24% of the vote in Quebec, the Bloc won just 5% of the seats.
For twenty years the Bloc has punched above its weight, earning two-thirds of the seats with about forty percent of the vote. Payback's a bitch!

The Bloc's presence in Ottawa underlined the fragility of our Parliamentary democracy. Those Quebeckers who decided to mock Canada by electing secessionists, put an enormous amount of pressure on an institution designed to work with elected officials who want the best for the country, not the worst.

Luckily our democracy withstood the test and ultimately the sovereignists realized that even with a forced minority government, federalists would not give in to separatist demands.

Such was the humiliating rout that the Bloc will likely disappear forever, the experiment to promote sovereignty in Ottawa, a failed gambit.
Without an elected leader and without party status, there is no basis to continue, certainly in consideration of the choice that Quebec voters made.
Looking at four years of roaming the political wilderness, it will be next to impossible to keep the Bloc brand alive. I'm not even sure they can pay off their campaign expenses, considering that the federal subsidy will drop by over 40%. If they're depending on the generosity of Quebeckers to help them pay off the debt, they may as well declare bankruptcy now!

So like every Canadian federalist, I'm glad to see them gone and gone forever.

It would be an error to believe that the rejection of the Bloc is an utter rejection of the sovereignty option. After a 20 year experiment in pushing secession in Ottawa, with zero tangible results, many 'soft' nationalists decided that it was just time to pack in the Ottawa adventure.

But while the Bloc's demise is not fatal to the sovereignty movement, it does deal the secessionists a painful body blow.
It signals that the Parti Quebecois is no shoe-in to replace the faltering provincial Liberals, whose franchise is well-past the 'use-by' date. Like their federal counterparts, the word 'Liberal' is toxic in French Quebec, but it doesn't mean that the Peekists are a natural replacement. Quebeckers have shown that they have no problem with rejecting 'all-of-the-above' and going down a different road.

 Gilles Duceppe's political career is  over, I don't see him enjoying any significant role (other than an elder statesman) in the sovereignty movement after this abject failure. The collapse of the Bloc will be pinned on him by hard-liners and the only  political role left  for him is to wear the goat-horns. His political star is eclipsed.

In spite of a brave face, the Parti Quebecois and Pauline Marois in particular are terrified of what happened election night.
Quebeckers have the told politicians that they were tired of the status quo and likely that will play out in Quebec's next provincial election.

For the Liberal and the Peekists, all I can say is....Be afraid, be very afraid.

Quebec Exchanges Four Quarters for a Dollar

So after all this, the polls underestimated the Conservative support once again and even though Quebec exchanged the Ndp for the Bloc, the real story is the Liberal collapse in Ontario, in favour of the Conservatives.

Quebec once again, remains the little boy with his nose rubbed up to the window, looking in from the outside at the Conservative party going on inside.

Is the Bloc collapse significant? I believe so.
Gilles Duceppe has already announced that he's abandoning ship and resigning as leader.
It's off to academia!
After a while, it's likely that the party will disband and the few members elected to sit as independents.
Dum-Da-Dum-Da!

So eager were Quebeckers to show the door to the Bloc, that the province elected a bunch of hardened communists, socialists and unilingual anglophones to represent French ridings!
Talk about the twilight zone.......

With the election of a majority government, the opposition is irrelevant. Layton and Mulcair can huff and puff to their hearts content and the large Ndp contingent in Parliament is of no concern.

By the way, the Bloc got almost 25% of the Quebec vote and won (at the time of writing this post) just 3 seats.
Payback's a bitch! Hahaha!

Rebuilding the Liberal franchise won't be easy, the party borrowed heavily to finance this current campaign. With the election results, the party will see their governmental subsidy halved. The Conservatives will no doubt eliminate this subsidy in the new term. Tough nougies!

Readers, this is a short post. It's meant to open up comments to you, I'm sure you've got a lot to say.

Here's some questions;

• What will Harper do with his majority

• How long will it take for Ignatieff to resign?

• What will happen to Duceppe?

• Who should take over the leadership of the Liberals?

• Who is cabinet material and who will replace Quebec's fallen ministers"

• Will Harper 'screw' Quebec? 

Go ahead, the floor is open!

Between the Bloc and the Ndp, I'll take the Bloc

Yes, there I said it.
Given a choice between the Bloc and the Ndp winning a riding, I'm hoping for the Bloc.

Strange? Perhaps, but the Bloc is a known entity. It's presence in Ottawa is annoying, but not particularly damaging. For twenty years they've twiddled their thumbs and been politically irrelevant.

For the last years, they've prevented the Conservatives from having a majority, something most Canadians actually see as a good thing. Nothing would change with a vote switch to the Ndp, we'll still be left with a minority, but with an Ndp party that will be in a position to make real demands, not a particularly enticing prospect.
God help us if they become the official opposition.

And so I'll take the Bloc, a party that has zero chance of affecting legislation, with no real political agenda other than to annoy and one that is satisfied with doing nothing, happy to bide it's time, building Parliamentary pensions.

There's a joke in Quebec that Anglos would rather vote for the Mafia before voting for a separatist and I daresay it's true. See why Anglos prefer the Mafia to Separatists
That being said, I'd rather see a separatist (with little power to advance a separatist agenda) elected in Ottawa, than a socialist dipper, a party that can wreck actual havoc.
Remember Ontario under Bob Rae?

Today is election day and for most of us who are politically informed, it's a nervous day, especially since we really don't know what is going to happen.
As the cartoon above indicates, voting is a special privilege for those who care and the actual casting of one's ballot is a solemn and thoroughly satisfying experience.

Unfortunately, most of us will end up disappointed, especially in Quebec where there are four strong parties vying for our votes. Basic math tells us that the majority of us will probably have voted for a candidate who loses, but no matter, this is our democracy.

As for voter turnout, I daresay that it might  skyrocket from a paltry 59% in the 2008 election, to over 70% this time around. With the very real specter that vote-splitting will affect the outcome of countless ridings, it appears that more than in the past, each vote counts. This coupled with the fact that the polls are all over the place, with nobody really sure of what tomorrow's result will drive participation. People tend to vote more when the conclusion is uncertain.

As for these polls,
 The dirty little secret that few pollsters will admit, is that the art of gauging public opinion has become LESS accurate over the last decade or so, for of a variety of reasons, the most important being that the response rate, or the number of people willing to answer questions from pollsters has fallen to about 15% from  over 70%. That and the preponderance of wireless phones, (which most pollsters don't call) makes getting an accurate sample much more expensive.

Here's how the pundits did in the last election, not so good by any standard.

So much for the experts and their predictions. I am reminded of the old adage that tells us that 'Experts built the Titanic"

Strategic voting is an interesting and purely Canadian concept, I can't imagine it happening too often anywhere else in the world.
The best example of the phenomenon is the riding of Papineau where Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life against the Bloc. With the Conservatives having no chance to win, many of Harperites  are swallowing hard and casting a Liberal vote, in an effort to limit the Bloc success. This phenomenon is happening in many ridings across the country.

As for the election all I can do is fantasize along with all of you and hope for the best.

As for my fantasy wish list, here goes;

•  I hope Larry Smith gets elected in Montreal's West Island.  CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not so good.

•  I hope Elizabeth May gets elected out in BC's Saanich-Gulf Islands. I really can't stand the Greens, but democracy is served by having some representation in Parliament. May is the only Green with any chance to win.  CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Good.

• I hope that Saulie Zajdel knocks off Irwin Cotler in Mount-Royal, in Montreal's designated 'Jewish' riding. Cotler is an anachronism from a time when Human rights was an issue. He made one of the very worst appointments to the Supreme Court when he named a family friend, Rosa Abella to the Supreme Court. Abella with a pedigree as a radical women's libber and a veteran of the Ontario Human Right's Commission is everything I don't particularly support. Ugh!..... Cotler also was an MP with one of the lowest attendance records in the last Parliamentary session, absent almost half the time. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - 50/50

• I hope that 'Uncle' Thom Mulcair loses in Outremont, Montreal. Mulcair is the only person running for office in the whole country that I actually hate with a passion. He is an evil, self-serving political rat that would sell his kids for power. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - not a chance

• I hope that Marlene Jennings and Marc Garneau two Montreal Liberal incumabants, both on the bubble, get re-elected. Anything better than the Ndp. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN-Good.

• I hope that Justin Trudeau gets re-elected. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Good

• I hope that Helena Guergis gets re-elected as an independent. Not my favourite person but treated shabbily by Stephen Harper. . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not so Good.

• I hope that Ken Dryden loses his seat in Toronto. Dryden seems to have lost his heart and interest . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN -  Good.

• I hope that Conservative cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon gets re-elected in Pontiac, Anglo-Quebeckers only representation in the Harper cabinet . CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - Not Good.

• In spite of my desire to have the Bloc win against the Ndp, I'll make an exception for Gilles Duceppe who will lose his seat if the Ndp surge holds. CHANCES IT WILL HAPPEN - 50/50
  

Finally  a note about the TWITTER controversy, with many vowing to release election results before polls have closed in the West, contrary to Election Canada rules. LINK
This is another media generated story that has no bearing in fact.
Election Canada has neatly side-stepped the problem by keeping polls open late in the East and closing early in the West.
As it stands, there is only a half hour  difference in real time between the time the polls close in the East and West. Consider the time it takes to count ballots and TWITS who want to spill the beans can only affect those voters who choose to vote on the west coast in the last ten minutes before the polls close.
Still think this is a big story? Bah!

By the way, Prince William and his new bride will visit Canada with a stop in Quebec this summer. No doubt the heir to the throne will be met with demonstrating yahoos, but it's interesting to note that he speaks fluent French,. At least three anglo Ndp candidates running in predominantly francophone ridings in Quebec can't speak a word of French. One might even be elected!

NOTE TO READERS;
I will post tomorrow, but not at the usual midnight hour. I'll wait for election results and hope to have a a post out by Noon.

Sex Act? ....Say It Ain't So, Jack!

Maybe that's why he's smiling???

Who knows who has been keeping this bombshell under wraps until needed, but make no mistake, it has to be the most powerful political bombshell ever unloaded in a Canadian election.

"What police say happened on Jan. 9, 1996, was recorded in the former cop's notebook, which was reviewed and photocopied by the Toronto Sun.
The former Asian crime unit officer, who requested anonymity, details a prior police raid on the "premise currently ID as a bawdy house" looking for underage Asian hookers and a subsequent follow-up visit to the two-storey brick storefront on Jan. 9.
At first the policemen didn't realize they were interviewing one of the best-known Toronto politicians who was married to Chow, also a Metro councillor and now the incumbent NDP MP for Trinity-Spadina.
The officer's notebook indicates he asked the suspected john: "Did you receive any sexual services?"
He replied: "No sir, I was just getting a shiatsu."
The cop: "Why did you have all your clothes off?"
The suspected john: No answer.
The cop: "Are you aware that there were sex acts being done here?"The suspected john: "No sir."The woman, who was from mainland China, denied masturbating the suspected john but when the question was repeated became nervous and replied, "I don't know I only come to work today," the cop's notes show.

His notes also claim he saw the "female dump wet Kleenex into garbage" LINK

WET KLEENEX!!!!!   
Boy when you start talking about a wet Kleenex, it's bad news.

For Canadians, not into the know, a 'Happy Ending' is a massage parlour session that terminates with an 'hand job' or oral sex act.

Jack's wife is defending her spouse's presence in a 'massage parlour' as legitimate. Ugh!
That's a bit sad.
Ladies reading this blog...would you forgive such behaviour?
Methinks, NO!

The Demonization of Jack Layton

Attention. This man is dangerous.

It isn't easy to attack Jack Layton, he's eminently likeable and comes off as honest and affable, even if he represents some pretty goofy political ideas.
But it matters little to many of his new found supporters, who look to Jack and the Ndp not as a potential government but rather an effective force to counter a Conservative party juggernaut.

In truth, none of his supporters expect victory and so are not particularly invested in Ndp policy.

The Conservatives don't have much to gain by attacking Layton, the chance of a stray Ndp vote coming their way is almost slim to none, but for the Bloc Quebecois, it's a whole different ballgame.

The Bloc has lost up to 25% of its support to the Ndp, a cataclysmic change that has rocked the party and sent a panicked Gilles Duceppe into his war-room to define a new strategy to counter the Layton effect.

There isn't much there politically and even less on a personal level, to disparage, but both the Bloc and it's fawning media supporters are mounting a somewhat desperate effort to take the shine off the Ndp rose.

Jack Layton has been around the block (no pun intended) and these new attacks are unlikely to ruffle his feathers.  The veteran politician deflects criticism better than any other politician in Canada and does so in a charming, modest, self-deprecating  "aw shucks' manner. It'll be hard to score points without being cruel and I'm not sure the voters are interested in seeing a charming, cane toting character beaten up. Things like that often backfire.

But try the Bloc will and try its allies in the media will as well. To do nothing is to admit defeat and so it starts......

In lautjournal. Pierre Dubuc writes;

"Layton makes ​​a pact with the religious right"

We had clear proof on Good Friday, when a television report showed us Jack Layton participating in a march of Forgiveness in Toronto and again on Easter Sunday, while the NDP leader summoned reporters and cameras to witness him attending a church service....

....Clearly, the NDP leader has lamentably capitulated to the religious right....

....The next step is to change the progressive values ​​that characterize Canadian society by the conservative values ​​of the religious right. The Liberals and the NDP are well aware of these issues. But the Liberals and the NDP have capitulated to the religious right, as evidenced by their participation in the  highly publicized Easter  religious ceremonies.

All these 'bon mots' set under a Photoshopped image of Jack Layton wearing a turban. Ouch!

In the Tribune libre de Vigile Michel Gendron has dubbed Layton 'Smiling Jack,' and offered us a less than clever cartoon of Layton (is that Thomas mulcair in the background?)  in a sailor suit over a caption "Cracker Jack Layton"
I was a little surprised by the author's use of the term "CRACKER" and I'm doubtful that the author understands its connotation in English. "CRACKER" is a racial slur against white people, similar to 'nigger' against blacks. Hmmm.....

It seems that the French press is obsessed with showing Layton wearing funny hats, as if it were somehow un-Quebecois.

Even the staid La Presse ran a story that on the surface seemed to be straight reporting, it's subject, Jack Layton attending a Sikh religious day in Toronto took on shades of Layton-bashing.
Showing the Ndp leader with a white-bearded Sikh, plays into the fact that Jack is in favour of reasonable accommodations, a concept on the outs with the majority of francophone voters.

"Women  members of the NDP team attending wore a scarf on their arrival in the park."

Undoubtedly, another observation meant to inflame Quebecois' sensitivity to women's right, is the wearing of religious attire, including the hated veils. LINK{FR}

But there is clearly a danger in attacking Jack Layton on his character as Gérald Larose, the ex-union leader and sovereignist militant found out when he challenged Layton to publicly answer five questions. The questions were clearly loaded and meant to show Layton's federalist bend, and so hopefully for Larose,  embarrassing the NDP leader.
Presumptuously, Mr. Larose demanded an answer to his questions by a prescribed deadline, failing which, according to him, would be clear evidence that Layton was an 'impostor,' 'villainous' and a 'double-crosser'
Mercilessly attacked in the French media for his remarks, Larose beat a hasty retreat and apologized for his exuberance a few hours later. LINK

Such is Layton-mania in Quebec that nothing negative sticks to Jack.
Even when he was forced to explain why one of his 'not a hope in Hell' Quebec candidates, Ruth Ellen Brosseau, was vacationing in Las Vegas during the campaign, the Press laughed it off.  Incredibly, the fact that she was employed in Ottawa and couldn't speak French worth a lick, didn't seem to matter to the Press, in spite of the fact that the riding where she was running was over 97% Francophone! LINK
Had it been any other leader, there would have been Hell to pay.

Why the is the leader of the Ndp getting the 'kid glove' treatment?
Well, perhaps as loud-mouth André Arthur, the independent conservative candidate, running in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier, said;

"We see poor Mr. Layton with his cane, and we pity him, and so, we want to vote for him to console him. Clearly, this man has the sympathy of everyone, including me" LINK