Quebec Shale Gas Hullabaloo Worth Paying Attention To

Generally speaking, when environmentalists start in on another tiresome harangue that global warming is going to destroy us all, I generally switch my brain off. While there's likely a measure of truth in what they are saying, my heart tells me they exaggerate their position for effect and at any rate I truly don't believe that there's anything we can do about it.....Sort of like promoting an end to war. A good idea but....

I don't want to get into a global warming debate, especially on this blog which is oriented elsewhere, but there is a local  environmental question that has peeked my interest of late, the exploration of shale gas and its very real effects on our local environment.

A year ago I never even heard of shale gas, shale gas exploration, its French appellation 'gaz de schiste' or the word 'fracking'

If you live outside Quebec (in Canada,) the issue is hardly making the news as there are only a few of these shale gas fields and of them, few are in such a densely populated area, as here in Quebec.

When the issue first surfaced in the news I arrogantly assumed that it was more environmentalist doomsayers warning of yet another impending catastrophe and so I cast my attention elsewhere, that is, until I saw a documentary on the subject on HBO entitled 'Gasland, a documentary film describing the dangers of this type of gas extraction. It was an eye-opener to say the least.

For those of you unfamiliar with the issue allow me to offer the Reader's Digest explanation.

Unlike crude oil which is hard to find, but relatively easy to pump out, shale gas is relatively easy to find, but hard to extract.

There are a massive amount of shale gas bearing fields across North America, but almost all are in the United States, as indicated on the map on the right. As you can see there is a pocket in Quebec that runs along the shore of the St. Lawrence river, but unfortunately in the most populated area of Quebec.

Extracting this gas is a mighty difficult affair. It involves pumping millions of litres of water laced with a secret chemical cocktail deep into the earth to ramp up the pressure and fracture the shale formation, releasing the trapped gas. Thus we get the term FRACKING.

If you think the process sounds complicated and dangerous you are probably correct. The effects of so much chemical laced water pumped underground is not understood at this time, in spite of assurances from the industry that the process is safe.

The United States is years ahead of us in terms of shale gas development. Tens of thousands of wells already exist and the process of extracting the gas is well-established.  

That being said,  problems with groundwater, air pollution and other environmental consequences are just now becoming a subject of extreme public debate.

The question remains as to whether the whole shale gas extraction thing is a blessing or a Pandora's box. Nobody is sure and that is what is scary.

Here is a report about shale gas exploration from an industry point of view; Shale Play Extends to Canada

Here is an excellent news article by Monique Muise writing in the Montreal Gazette;
A guide to Quebec’s shale gas controversy

I urge readers who are unfamiliar with the issue to spend the eight minutes or so to watch this rivetting video which I found on YouTube;

 

The issue is complicated by the fact that the gas could provide a vast amount of tax for the Quebec government and we cannot discount that the government could use all the money it can get it's hands on. Estimates are that the gas may be worth over 200 billion dollars.

That being said, I believe that a go slow approach is required. The EPA in the USA is set to release a definitive report next year on the impact on shale gas extraction and it would be prudent to put things off until then.

"Michael Binnion, CEO of Calgary-based Questerre Energy Inc., characterized resistance to shale gas development as largely being driven by uninformed opinion circulated on social media." LINK

With arrogance like that it's no wonder the  industry has hired Lucien Bouchard to be their point man   probably realizing that the public is waking up to the potential dangers.

How much confidence do you have that the Quebec government can safely regulate this industry?

Hmmmm........Don't answer that!

Further reading; 

Opposition to shale gas drilling unexpectedly strong

Quebec should 'go slow' on shale gas: expert

The Two Montreals

Charter of Ville de Montréal

CHAPTER I

CONSTITUTION OF THE MUNICIPALITY
1. A city is hereby constituted under the name “Ville de Montréal”.

Constitution.

Montréal is a French-speaking city.

Language.

Montréal is the metropolis of Québec and one of its key actors as regards to economic development.

Metropolis.

There it is, written for all to see, the declaration by the city itself that Montreal is French, a declaration which was untrue when it was written and which remains an outlandish lie today.

The uncomfortable reality for those who propagate this myth is that Montreal was conceived and built by the Scots and the English, with the Irish contributing most of the heavy lifting. Strolling down Ste. Catherine Street, it's no accident that almost all the cross streets honour those Anglos who built our metropolis.
Bishop, Crescent, Mountain, Drummond, Stanley, Peel, Metcalfe, Mansfield, McGill, University, Union, Phillips, Aylmer and City Councillors.
Fourteen streets in a row, representing the heart and soul of downtown Montreal and every one of them named for our historical Montreal Anglophone community. How come?

The great lie that Montreal is a French city rests on faulty statistics and decidedly wishful thinking, propagated by language fantasists living in unreality.

Pumped up artificially by coercive language laws meant to hide Montreal's true English face, separatists cannot stomach that the English language and its culture endures and thrives.

As these language militants they themselves admit (when they have the crying towel out), Montreal is made up by about 50% of its citizens whose mother tongue is French, with the balance split almost perfectly between English native speakers and ethnics speaking a variety of languages.
As for cultural assimilation, the 'ethnics' split their loyalty (much to the chagrin of French language militants) about 50/50 between the English community and the French community. The real language demographic has the city about ⅔ French and about ⅓ English.
This is the reality of modern Montreal.

But consider this;
Montreal is really two cities living side by side. There isn't a Berlin wall bisecting the two, but the division is as real as can be.

Running north/south is the boundary street of St Lawrence Boulevard, splitting the city rather neatly into two  halves. On the east side, you'd be hard pressed to find an anglophone. It's a part of the city that few tourists visit, because quite frankly, there isn't much to see or do over there. As I said, the population is almost completely francophone (except for the Italians in St. Leonard and Anjou.) Here francophones live with those ethnics who have assimilated into the francophone side of the language equation, the Arabs from the Mahgreb, the creole speaking Haitians and various French African immigrants, as well as a small peppering of South Americans who seem as a community to have chosen French.

Olympic Stadium-A mediocre symbol defining its neighbourhood

I won't spend time running down the east, suffice to say it is the denizen of the Mario Beaulieus and Louis  Prefontaines. It is the Plateau Mont-Royal and Amir Khadir. It's one recognizable symbol, the monstrous Olympic stadium, is a testament to hubris and incompetence and everything else that's bad about Montreal.

The western part of the Island is a completely different story. It's the Montreal that owns the downtown core, great universities and colleges, Mont Royal Park and quite frankly, anything of value that is Montreal.
It is as different from East Montreal as one can imagine.

Here the Anglos exist in numbers equal to the French speakers and it's where the ethnics are aligned with the English. The Indians, Tamils,  Pakistanis, the Jamaicans and others from the islands. From the downtown core out to the western tip of the island, its a whole other ballgame.

This is the Montreal that the world sees and understands, a cosmopolitan, bilingual and exciting urban scene that is by any standard, world class.

Our Montreal - the west

This Montreal is unaffected by dimwit language purists, it is a place of innovation and experimenters, both English French and ethnic. It is vibrant and exciting and most Canadians will admit that its the most exciting place in the country.

One Saturday night as the hockey game, at the then Molson Centre let out, the crowds surged out of the building onto the surrounding streets as per usual.
At the corner of Ste. Catherine and Metcalfe a left-turning cab cut me off as I was crossing the street and immediately got snared in a jam. As the cab sat in the middle of the intersection, the back window rolled down to reveal two fans bedecked in Maple Leafs jerseys, obviously in town for the hockey game. The one sitting by the open window looked out and sheepishly apologized for the driver's rudeness.
It bowled me over.
"Wha??..." I retorted, "Listen, friend. This is Montreal. You don't apologize!"

This Montreal has its very own rules. Pedestrians jaywalk and cars run through red lights. Crosswalks exist, but like the batters box in major league baseball which are duly painted before each game, only to be erased by the umpires, don't count on anyone respecting them. Montreal must be the only place on Earth that has signs under the traffic lights, reminding drivers to wait for the 'green.'

There's an edginess to this Montreal that is hard to describe. This Montreal, contrary to what we are told, may be the most bilingual place on earth, where locals flick between French and English depending on whom they are addressing. It isn't only a place where people can speak two languages, it is a city that actually operates in two languages. Bar conversations are bilingual, even among friends. The intermarriage (or shacking up) rate is high.
No Anglo would ever use the word 'corner store' when 'depanner' is so much easier and it's where francophones describe those whom they dislike as 'loosers' (notice the anglicized and francized spellings of both words.)

If you want perfection, go to Toronto, a city described to me once, quite appropriately by a Montreal expat as the "Kraft Dinner City" (for its originality.)
Almost everything great in Canada originated in Montreal. No doubt Toronto can do it bigger and better and I'm sure that one day they'll have a BIXI system that will outstrip ours. By then we'll be on to something else. We are the innovators.
Before you detractors out there say it, I'll admit, we can't run a hospital decently and have a dysfunctional government to boot.
Montreal isn't easy.
Detractors will remind us about  potholes, riots, the disorganization and the tension.
But the Chinese have a saying- 'In danger there is opportunity'. In Montreal, we can say that "In chaos there is creativity."
Montreal endures as the greatest place in Canada for creativity and innovation and in two languages to boot. Hip and cutting edge.

This is the Montreal that is Arcade Fire.

When French language militants say the the music group isn't representative of Montreal, they are talking about the Montreal on the other side of St. Lawrence Boulevard. In that respect I agree with them.

But Arcade Fire is exactly what our Montreal is.

When language hardliners cross the border from the East into downtown, they are outraged. While forced artificially to adopt a French face because of Bill 101, the reality that English dominates becomes self-evident rather quickly. For French language hardliners its a hard pill to swallow.

The hotels, the restaurants, the hospitals, the schools, the bars, the stores, the airport.
English, English, English ......Too bad for French language fantasists...

Next time you hear a language militant complain that Arcade Fire doesn't represent the true face of Montreal, point them to the East, kick'em in the arse and tell them to get out of our Montreal...

Arcade Fire Dérange

déranger :  inconvenience, bother,  disquiet,  perturb,  trouble....

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

By now all of Canada is aware that Montreal's Arcade Fire won the  prestigious Grammy for album of the year for their album "The Suburbs." Following that victory they jetted off to London to accept two Brit awards.
The accolades are pouring from all quarters, even the City of Montreal put up a congratulatory banner on their website and Quebec's Parliament passed a special congratulatory motion.
How do you say 'bandwagon' in French?

The reality is that to Quebec's narrow-minded music industry and the French language militants that run the show, Arcade Fire's win is nothing to celebrate, the group and its newly won Grammy is actually a huge embarrassment.

To these narrow-minded anglophobes, Arcade Fire represents the Quebec's music industry worst nightmare, a wildly successful artistic group, singing in English and claiming Quebec as their artistic home.

For the entrenched music industry in Quebec, English music is considered a threat and a force to be countered, not encouraged.
For ADISQ, the powers that run the Quebec music scene, it is official policy to discourage English music in Quebec and so that is why, while Arcade Fire is eligible for Grammy awards in the USA, the Brit awards in England and the Junos in Canada, they are not eligible at home, for the major categories in the Quebec music industry's awards because they don't sing in French.

The 'Felixs', Quebec's music awards, restrict nominations in major categories to French singing artists and so Quebec's hottest artists such as Arcade Fire, Bobby Bazini, Sam Roberts, or Ian Kelly cannot participate. It's no wonder that the Felixs are about as prestigious as bowling club trophies.

And so even francophone artists that sing in English are treated as lepers by the Quebec music industry, which believes that by shunning English singing artists they will somehow influence and control the musical tastes of Quebeckers.

"ADISQ behaves like a cult with its parish feast which denies the reality of Montreal. It's small and dusty , "tweeted radio host Paul Arcand.

Strangely, nowhere on ADISQ's French only website is the policy of promoting French language music to the detriment of English language music explained. Perhaps it is wise of them not to enunciate a racist policy that denies Quebec's English singing artists equality.

"Since 1978, ADISQ is working for the  survival  and blossoming of the production of  independent music, strong, original and innovative."

(Depuis 1978, l’ADISQ travaille à la survie et à l’épanouissement, au Québec, d’une production musicale indépendante, forte, originale et innovatrice.) LINK

This banner appears on the bottom of the ADISQ website, so its a bit disconcerting to see that English Canada is paying in large part for an organization that discriminates against English-singing artists.

In spite of their efforts, Arcade Fire is proof of the failure of this bankrupt mentality that is reminiscent of totalitarian regimes which try to restrict access to the Internet or who attempt to control what citizens read and see on television.

If you think Arcade Fire's win will change this optic, you're sadly mistaken.

"Organizers of Montreal's Fete Nationale celebration say the band would have to sing their songs in French, like any other act playing at the festival for Quebec's annual holiday
The chief organizer said Wednesday that the Grammy-winning band would be welcome to play the June 24 event if it wanted to. "As long as they conform to certain guidelines," When asked whether those guidelines included not singing in English, and performing in French instead," Savard replied: "Voila." LINK

Given their lack of success in controlling what Quebeckers listen to, perhaps in conjunction with the OQLF,  ADISQ will ramp up the pressure and ban English music altogether. Maybe we will see a new cadre of hybrid music/language inspectors raiding the bedrooms of francophone tweens, ripping Justin Bieber posters off the wall.

What ADISQ and French language militants refuse to admit, is the hidden reality that the Montreal English music scene, unsubsidized and unrecognized by the Quebec music industry is setting North America on it's ear.  Montreal's hip underground music scene based in the Mile End district of Montreal, Canada's most creative neighbourhood, is attracting attention from artists and industry insiders across North America.

"Though Montreal may not have the commercial punch of Nashville, its musical assets extend far beyond Arcade Fire. In a study of Montreal's creative economy I conducted with Stolarick and consultant Lou Musante in the early-2000s, we found musicians from around North America relocating there to take advantage of the city's historic and cultural heritage, openness, and affordable real estate.  Montreal is also home to Cirque de Soleil, a cultural force in its own right.
Upon accepting the award for best record, Win Butler, the leader of Arcade Fire--who hails originally from Texas--noted the bond between music and his adopted city.  "I just want to say thank you, merci, to Montreal, Quebec, for taking us and giving us a home and a place to be in a band." Talking with reporters after the show he added: "There's such a beautiful arts scene and music and dance (and) a lot of creative forces there." This is clearly a guy who thinks a lot about place: his band's award winning album is titled "The Suburbs." Read the story in THE ATLANTIC

This incredible Montreal music scene is not an anglophone-only invention. The fact that the artistic language is English, hasn't stopped francophone artists and fans from participating.
In fact, Arcade Fire's success lies not only in its Anglo supporters, but in large part to the Quebec francophone fan base which recognized and embraced their talent almost immediately.  Long before the world even heard of Arcade Fire, the group was gaining a following in the Quebec music scene, with no help of course, from ADISQ. From artsy coffee houses in the Mile End to suburban shopping centre performances in Longueuil, to the Quebec Summer Music Festival, Arcade Fire's rise can be credited to the group's talent and the support they earned from their Quebec fans, both English and French.
It's a wonderful testament to the musical sophistication of Quebec francophones who embraced an English-singing group before the world discovered them. No bandwagon here and no help from the powers that be, Quebeckers of all linguistic groups proved that it is they and they alone, who decide what music they listen to and moreover, that they have discerning taste.

Of course the French language militants are apoplectic. Louis Prefontaine compared this group to that of a Montreal ethnic restaurant, tasty and good, but not really an authentic Quebecois dish.
No doubt he prefers Poutine.
He rags on the one Francophone member of the group for pursuing a music degree at McGill University and choosing English to perform in. Link

Arcade Fire's success painfully underlines what Mr. Prefontaine wishes to deny, that is, if you want to make it internationally, you've got to perform in English.  Just ask Celine Dion (who actually removed the French accent in her name) and Guy Laliberté, Quebec's most successful entertainment exports.

One of the most telling observations was made in a comment by 'Rawkenroll,' under Mr. Prefontaine's rant;

"There are artists who are content to do the CEGEP and the festival tour, generously funded out of our taxes.

There are other artists who set their sights on the world and promote Quebec across the globe.

Some people praise Loco Locass. Some people shit on Arcade Fire.

These are the people who are overpaid to ring up sales at the SAQ.

Others are playing to audiences in Las Vegas and travelling into space.

You're right Louis, Arcade Fire is nothing like us.
....They are successful and ambitious."

 Touché! 

By the way, Saint Jean Baptiste organizers need not worry about Arcade Fire singing in English at the separatist holiday celebration, they'll likely be off on a world tour!


Read:

We Will Not Be Quiet!

Heritage Classic Another Slap in the Face to Quebec

I might understand the lack of French at yesterday's 'Heritage Classic" hockey game in Calgary, should it have been treated as just another NHL game, one of just 82, but that wasn't the case.

The whole patriotic affair was wrapped up in our flag, packaged and sold as a national celebration of Canadian hockey, complete with a flyby by the Snowbirds, the Canadian air force's demonstration team.  The event was hyped as such by the CBC and Hockey Night in Canada, otherwise why else broadcast the game nationally on a Sunday night?

It was most definitely not just another hockey game!

It may just come down to a case of bad manners, or perhaps more sadly a case of mean-spiritedness, something westerners are not generally known for, but the exclusion of French at this national event was disgraceful, repugnant and downright shameful.

It made the Vancouver Olympics opening ceremonies look downright inclusive.

What can you say about a broadcast that sings the Star-Spangled Banner in front of two Canadian teams in Canada to satisfy the twelve American viewers watching on the American cable channel VERSUS and forgets to sing O Canada bilingually in respect of the more than the million viewers from Quebec who are tuning in.
All it would have taken was a few French words in the national anthem and a couple of bilingual banners.  Too much to ask, really?

If the Flames organization forgot, the Montreal Canadiens were their guests and were good sports to participate in an extraordinary affair that would largely pay dividends to the home team.

Yeeeechhh............!!!!!!!!1

The Montreal Canadiens didn't seem to matter all, it's as if the Habs were playing the Washington Generals to the Calgary Flames, who were incidentally, so handsomely bedecked in uniforms that made the dead and buried Canadiens barbershop outfit look positively dashing.
At least Montreal had an excuse for wearing the horrifically ugly barbershop uniforms- they were authentic.
What idiot in the Flames organization dreamed up a pretend vintage uniform that is even uglier?

No, not even Tim Horton's could muster a word in French in its many humungous advertising banners splashed all around the stadium.  Pas une maudit mot!....

At any rate the whole event was tedious.
The local musical talent was hard to stomach with the anthems sung rather dully and the 'half-time' show another descent in musical hell with a shrieking blond, part of indie rockers Metric who are certainly no Arcade Fire. . PAINFUL!!!!
 Perhaps they need to move to the Mile End to hone their talents! 

The game looked like a exhibition match with all the players afraid to hit or be hit, with good reason.
The horrible ice insured that the Canadiens faster game would be neutralized and that the locals would get their dream come true.

I hope the Canadiens will never allow themselves to be used this shallowly again.

The Calgary Flames organization disrespected them and all Montreal Canadiens fans in Quebec.

Next time, let the Calgary Flames play with the Edmonton Oilers in a hundred degrees below zero and see if the rest of the country actually gives a crap.

Calgary chose the Montreal Canadiens for the fan interest and the gravitas that Canada's most storied franchise brought to the event.

Shame on the Calgary Flames , for inviting the guest of honour guest to their party and treating the team as a prop.

Shame on the NHL for encouraging this total disrespect!

Hypocrisy Reigns in Religous Debate

A ruling by Quebec's Tribunal des droits de la personne ordered an end to the practice of Christian prayers before city council meetings in the city of Saguenay, as well as demanding that the city remove the crucifix hanging in the debates hall. The decision is sending shock waves throughout Quebec. The court concluded that the mayor and council have deliberately attempted to impose their religious views on the public at the expense of their duty of neutrality. LINK{FR}

The city of Saguenay and it's fiercely religious mayor Jean Tremblay has fought tooth and nail against the idea of in any way removing affirmations of the Christian faith in the city administration.

The mayor was so annoyed that the city was hauled before the tribunal, that at a press conference, he directed some injudicious comments towards the plaintiff, Alain Simoneau and the Mouvement laïque québécois (Quebec secular movement,) which backed the case.

The judge was so annoyed with the recalcitrant mayor that she added $15,000 in punitive damages to  the original $15,000 compensation for his 'illicit and intentional' behaviour. LINK{FR}

See my previous blog piece - Saguenay Mayor Leads Idiot Parade in Religious Debate

The litigious mayor, has already announced that the city will appeal the decision and is asking the public to make donations to finance the court battle. He's come under fire for wasting city resources and has already spent almost $60,000 defending his and council member's right to pray before meetings. He is what lawyers like to refer as 'litigious,' a lawyers ultimate 'wet dream.' Mayor Tremblay has also undertaken other expensive legal battles which includes at least one protracted appeal to the Supreme Court.

Click to see donation page

The city has added a page on its municipal website to collect funds for its legal defence fund and has already collected $23,000 in just two days.
Hmm....seems to me that putting up an image of Jesus shilling for money might also be a violation of the separation of church and state, but I'm just asking.......

The court ruling has quickly sparked a debate over the Crucifix in the National Assembly where politicians have already voted in favour of keeping the Christian symbol above the speakers chair, under the guise that it is part of Quebec 'heritage' and doesn't necessarily represent support for any certain religion. Hmmmm.......

Kathleen Weil, the NDG anglo sellout Minister of Justice, was one of the first to give an interview supporting the Crucifix and repeated the fiction that it wasn't a 'religious' symbol.

Lousie Beaudoin, the PQ hardliner has also given an interview and asked the rhetorical question as to why it is okay to accommodate other religions, but not that of the majority.

A good question, except when did Beaudoin ever support religious accommodations for minorities?

The Crucifix in the National Assembly remains problematic and understandably leads to all sorts of problems as in the recent case of a Montreal cabbie who wants to preserve religious paraphernalia in his cab.
Yesterday news came that the Jewish cabbie had a fine upheld in court in regard to decorating his cab with Jewish religious articles. The taxi authority has rules against these types of expressions and it seems to me like a good idea not to turn cabs into shrines to Allah, Jehovah, Jesus or Shiva.
Now if the taxi authorities could only regulate the music that cabbies play on their radio, I'd be very appreciative. ....but I digress!  

"Mr. Perecowicz said he will appeal and is ready to take the case as far as the Supreme Court. He says it's unfair that he cannot display his Jewish prayer scroll in his cab, while a crucifix hangs over the speaker's chair in Quebec's National Assembly." LINK

He might have a point.

The issue seems to have sparked quite an emotional reaction across the province with two cities, Laval and Trois-Rivieres, already refusing to apply similar rulings in their town halls. 

The thorny issue of religion in public life has rocked many other countries and is not a Quebec-only debate. Recently Italy is appealing a European Court of Human Rights ruling that crucifixes be removed from schools. It has also employed the same cockamamie argument that the crucifix is a historic heritage symbol and thus can be displayed in every classroom. Greece and Russia have joined 10 other countries as third-parties in support of Italy. Link

The issue is contentious because Quebeckers have embraced public secularism in an attempt to check the influence of those with profound religious beliefs from having too much influence in public policy. It seemed like a good idea at the time.

But the advancement of secularism is a two-edged sword, as the Mayor of Saguenay found out. If you want to ban Hijabs and Niqibs in public you have to get rid of the cross. Anything else is hypocrisy.

The small but plucky Mouvement laïque québécois is taking advantage of the confused situation to advance their program of removing all religion, even Christianity,  from public life.

Although less than 6% of Quebeckers attend Church on a regular basis, it  doesn't stop them from considering themselves 'Catholics' just the same.

How the situation can possibly resolve itself remains a mystery. Clearly the majority want Quebec society to reflect its Christian heritage without forcing Christianity upon anybody.

That being said, it means the tolerance of other religious symbols and it entails making certain religious accommodations, something most are against.

As they say on the street, you can't suck and blow at the same time!

If we listen to the secular extremists, we'd have to rename every street bearing a Christian appellation, remove the Crucifix from Mont-Royal and every public building and school in Quebec. Christian holidays including Easter and Christmas would no longer be paid public holidays. The government would be barred from offering any public funding to schools that included religious instruction.

I don't accept that concept, considering that people of faith pay taxes too and as such can expect to have those taxes support schools that follow government mandated courses, in addition to religion. To deny them this right is to impose by taxation, a form of secularism.

Next there are those who want to maintain Quebec as a Christian state (like the Mayor of Saguenay) with Christianity as the state religion. Schools would go back to teaching Christianity and those of a different mind could opt out of classes. Again, I'm not particularly in favour of that.

Then there are those who'd like to maintain the status quo, where the state is officially secular but remains attached to its Christian heritage. Religion is taken out of schools but private schools providing religious instruction remain subsidized. Minorities can expect some accommodations, but not those that conflict with the general tenets by which secular society operates.

It's a wishy washy solution that I sort of believe is the best answer. 

Let's be honest, the whole question is a toughie. I think anybody who has a sure solution is probably a hardliner.