Anti-English Rally Less than Impressive

The first thing young political organizers are taught, is to accurately predict the number of people likely to attend a certain political meeting, so that the hall size or venue can be adjusted in consequence. This means working the phones for hours and hours, getting commitments and tallying up the numbers.
The rule of thumb (one that all political parties follow) is that the hall should be sized just slightly smaller than that which could accommodate the anticipated crowd. That way, the place will be packed  and the event will appear successful beyond predictions. Nothing plays better on TV than a full house and nothing is worse than the appearance of empty chairs. 

If by chance there is a miscalculation and there are too few people, a backup room, smaller in size may be pressed into service. Sometimes the organizers are forced to 'stack' the room with students or old people who they pay at the last minute in order to make a room appear full.
This was the first lesson taught to me by an experienced and wily political campaign manager, who as my mentor, impressed upon me that to - "KNOW THY ROOM" is the first rule of political organizing.

It is a lesson that organizers of Saturday night's separatist love-a-thon celebrating the French language, held in Montreal, understood very well.
Although the militant web sites and separatist organizations have been hyping the event for weeks and scheduled it perfectly on a Saturday night when nothing much was going on in town, they accurately calculated from the get-go, that they wouldn't be pulling in Celine Dion numbers.

You'd think that by the sound and fury emanating from the thirty something separatist organizations that make up the Coalition contre le projet de loi 103, the whole province was ready to explode in a popular uprising against the government's decision not to invoke the 'Notwithstanding Clause' in relation to the Supreme Court's decision overturning Bill 104.

And so, one wouldn't be faulted in assuming that the separatist rally denouncing the Charest government's answer to the Supreme Court decision, Bill 103, could easily fill the 55,000 seats of Montreal's Olympic Stadium, especially since the rally was gratis and provided some free entertainment.
If not the Olympic Stadium, at least they could try for the 22,000 seats of the Bell Centre, or maybe even an outdoor event at the Saputo stadium of 13,000. Wait.....scratch that last idea, I think the Saputo family would rather eat their children than rent to separatists.

No, the organizers set there sights a little lower, well to be honest, a lot, lot lower.

Harking back to the rule of "Know thy Room" this historic display of nationalist outrage was scheduled and held in the massive Centre Pierre-Charbonneau arena, capacity 2,500 people.
Yup....2,500 people!

And guess what, organizers triumphantly announced that it was a smashing success and even trumpeted the fact that a few people had to be turned away! Textbook!

Well at least it was amazing marketing success. I compliment the pros who ran the event, who  knew exactly how many few people were going to show up and turned a complete failure into vaunted success, by controlling the size of the venue.

To put the numbers in perspective, consider that the Montreal indie band Arcade Fire held an unannounced  impromptu practice concert in a suburban Longueuil shopping mall parking lot without any advertising at all  and managed to attract over 10,000 people.

When Montreal Canadiens ex-goaltender Jaroslav Halak (after being traded to St. Louis) made a return appearance at a local Montreal mall to thank fans for their support over the years, the autograph session attracted over 5,000 people!

Let's face it, a decent -sized high school can turn out 2,500 students to an assembly.

There is an overriding reality that militants and language extremists are  unrepresentative of the general population. While it is probably true that most francophones would prefer to see more Quebeckers or francophones on the Montreal Canadiens, it's not going to stop them from cheering and supporting the team. It seems that when it comes to hockey, loyalty to ones team goes beyond language and even talent as well, if you don't believe me, just ask Toronto Maple Leaf fans.

In spite of a week of Montreal Canadiens' language bashing, the Habs opening of training camp was a wildly successful event, with the public lining up in the wee morning hours to secure a seat in the practice facility. By 9:00am, cars were already being turned away.

What lessons did we learn from Saturday's 'massive' language protest?

Well, first Loco Lacass is one piss poor group of rappers. Even for free, not many wanted to see or hear their out of tune and thoroughly grating performance.

Secondly,  Pierre Curzi, who led last weeks language attack on the Canadiens, might very well be tuning up for a run for power in the PQ, considering Pauline Marois's utter lack of popularity. His recital of the thoroughly racist Quebecois poem "Speak White" went over big, just like Luck Merville's recitation of the FLQ manifesto at the Moulin à paroles last summer.

Lastly, the radical language movement is vastly over estimated. While this minority of Chicken Littles run around telling everyone who will listen that the French language is dying and that English schools are to blame, the majority of Quebeckers (66%), still believe in educational free choice. Link

Perhaps the press is starting to see through this smokescreen. An organizer of the event complained that the press was relegating the story to a third class event and not providing it the appropriate level of coverage.
And just to remind all tomorrow's commentators who believe that those wishing to control the language of education are on the side of angels, let me refer them to Article 26  of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights created by the United Nations.

Article 26

• (1) Everyone has the right to education. Education shall be free, at least in the elementary and fundamental stages. Elementary education shall be compulsory. Technical and professional education shall be made generally available and higher education shall be equally accessible to all on the basis of merit.
• (2) Education shall be directed to the full development of the human personality and to the strengthening of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. It shall promote understanding, tolerance and friendship among all nations, racial or religious groups, and shall further the activities of the United Nations for the maintenance of peace.
• (3) Parents have a prior right to choose the kind of education that shall be given to their children.

Separtists Hit New Heights of Absurdity

First, a shout out to reader "Steve Gratton" who was on the story of Pierre Curzi complaining on the radio that the Montreal Canadiens have gone 'rogue' and now are a force for 'federalism.'
NO DOGS OR ANGLOPHONES  published this snippet days before the main press reacted at all. GOOD FOR US! LINK

For those who can understand French there's a recording of the interview, as well as a story over  at radio station CKAC.
Mr. Curzi railed about how the Canadiens are no longer a source of Quebecois pride because the owners have shifted allegiances from Quebec to Ottawa. The nonsense assumes that the Canadiens of the past, by virtue of a francophone heavy roster was somehow a French organization.
It never was.....

Particularly irksome is the Canadiens 'catchphrase;

"NOUS SOMMES CANADIENS - WE ARE CANADIENS"

The story is gathering momentum across the country for it's shear stupidity and Mr. Curzi's missive has served to ridicule language militants.

"No political party should play wedge politics with the Montreal Canadiens," Dimitri Soudas, Mr. Harper's director of communications, said in an email.

He added that it is unwise "to run against a hockey team, like the Habs, that has more victories than the Parti Quebecois and the Bloc Quebecois combined." LINK

Of course the story got even sillier with Pauline Marois wading into the affair decrying the lack of Quebecois on the team;

“Currently it helps federalism more than, in my point of view, the defence of our interests and of our reality as francophones in North America,” she said. LINK

Of course, this is a different tune to that which she sang during the Canadiens fabulous playoff run last spring. But flip-flops are Madame Marois' forte. In her closing address at a weekend-long conference in Drummondville, the PQ leader compared the party's attempt at taking on the Charest Liberals to the Habs' fight for the Stanley Cup.":

"Sovereignists are like the Montreal Canadiens, said Pauline Marois at a Parti Quebecois convention this weekend; underdogs who believe in themselves" LINK 

Gary Clement/National Post- See Original

A variety of French language militants in the press corps, led by blowhard Rejean Tremblay continue to preach discrimination affirmative action in order to get the Canadiens up to linguistic snuff.

Lost on all these militants is the stark reality that the NHL is an English organization. Teams operate in English and foreign and Francophone players who aspire to play in the NHL must polish their English skills along with their skating and shooting.

No team dressing room has ever operated in French and that includes the vaunted Quebec Nordiques.

Players who come to Montreal from outside Quebec aren't going to learn French just because the fans want them to. Perhaps it would be nice, but it's not the reality. The players work in English, raise their families in English, socialize in English and go home once the hockey season is done. 

As for attracting French speaking players, it appears that the good ones don't particularly want to come back to Quebec. The Canadiens have struck out on all levels in trying to attract top talent. Many have told reporters candidly that the pressure and scrutiny of playing in Quebec isn't worth it.
When Guy Carbonneau was fired as coach of the Canadiens the frenzy was such that reporters camped out in front of his elderly mother's residence, hoping for a comment! It seems that the only francophones interested in the Canadiens are those at the end of their career or those youngsters desperate to make the team. As for the quality players, the pastures are decidedly greener elsewhere.

As for proportional and fair representation, perhaps Mr. Curzi could take up the plight of anglophone civil servants who collectively hold less than one percent of the jobs, while remaining 8.5% of the general Quebec population. REFERENCE

How about some affirmative action? What do you say, Mr. Curzi, Madame Marois?

Kosovo Independence-A Double-Edged Sword

Quebec Nationalists are all excited over a decision by the United Nations International Court of Justice which declared that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia is not illegal. LINK

The decision set off an avalanche of opinion pieces from hopeful sovereignists who saw the decision as an important precedent for Quebec. LINK

Two conclusions were advanced.

The first, spearheaded by the likes of Gérald Larose(French) and Louise Beaudoin(French) argued that the decision renders the Clarity Act moot. (the Clarity Act sets two conditions for Quebec Sovereignty- a clear and concise referendum question and a clear majority voting in favour of the option) 

The second and more fanciful conclusion is that a referendum is not even a necessary element to the secession of Quebec from Canada just a simple declaration of independence by Quebec's Parliament, is all that is required. LINK

But nationalists would be well advised to look this "gift horse" in the mouth, the 'Kosovo decision' may prove more trouble than it's worth.

The idea that the Quebec Parliament can declare sovereignty by virtue of a simple vote may be supported in the Kosovo decision, but would never fly.

After two failed referendums, the world would look on the unilateral declaration of independence as cheating and more importantly, a majority of Quebeckers, including many sovereignists would view the act as undemocratic.

For Quebec, secession without a referendum is not a realistic option, under any circumstances.

The other notion put forward, is that the Kosovo decision refutes the impact of the Clarity Act which demands that Quebec ask a clear referendum question and win a clear majority, before Ottawa would be required to undertake devolution negotiations.

Again this too, is academic.

There's little or no chance that a Separatist government would attempt to do what it did in the last referendums, that is, ask a confusing question like in 1995;

"Do you agree that Québec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Québec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?.

 Premier Jacques Parizeau at the time, described it as a 'lobster trap' and once Quebeckers voted YES, there could be but one irrevocable conclusion- sovereignty.

You know the old saying..."Fool me once, shame on you" fool me twice, shame on me"

Quebeckers wouldn't stand for such a dishonest question again, but even if they did, everyone now knows that a YES vote in a referendum means sovereignty and nothing else. No voter can claim to think anything else. So once again, the question is purely academic.

As for the last precept of the Clarity Act, the obligation to win a clear majority, the question has also been largely settled. The Quebec government's position that a 50% +1 vote is the threshold for passage of a referendum seems to be accepted as realistic, even by opponents.

Anything else violates the historical reality. Newfoundland entered confederation, barely squeaking out a 52% margin of victory and this on their second referendum attempt.

So all this talk of the Kosovo decision changing anything is hogwash, we've already set our own terms for any secession and those terms are widely accepted by those on both sides of the issue.

That being said, the Kosovo decision may have an important impact on Quebec, should it ever actually vote to leave Canada.

Remember, the essence of the Kosovo decision says that national borders are not inviolate and that it is not illegal for regional governments to declare sovereignty unilaterally.

That is in direct opposition to the separatist position that says that the provincial border of Quebec is inviolate.

If an independent Canada is subject to the Kosovo decision, so is an independent Quebec.

In the eventuality of Quebec independence, the Kosovo decision would give credence to the right of any region within Quebec to secede and remain in Canada. This would certainly apply to the entire northern part of Quebec, the island of Montreal, the Pontiac region and the Beauce.
A simple vote by Montreal, Cote Saint Luc, Hampstead, Dorval, Pierrefonds, etc. etc. would be enough to secede from Quebec and remain in Canada!

Separatists can't argue one way today and another way tomorrow, or to put it in the language of the street- You can't suck and blow at the same time!

In the event of a Quebec separation, you can bet that this issue will come up and that serious efforts would be undertaken in some regions to 'break away' from Quebec.

And so in rushing to embrace the Kosovo decision,  sovereignists would be wise to heed the the old adage that says "be careful what you wish for, lest it come true",

English Cegep Study - A Case of Weird Science

Once again language militants are all atwitter over a published report that 'proves' that attending English cegep(junior college) turns Allophones and Francophones into Anglophones. Typical reaction by French language militants is this by Pierre Leduc;

"Attendance of English colleges by more and more allophones and francophones is an important factor in anglicization, according to a survey by the Institute for Research on French in America (IRFA) and the Centrale des Syndicats du Québec (CSQ )." L'Autre Journal.

The  report itself never really came to this conclusion, but left broad hints that allowed others to jump to this conclusion. Language militants as well as mainstream media, all fell into the trap and wrote article after article indicating that  English cegep attendance was causing Francophones and Allophones to become anglicized.

The report published by an organization called the "Institut de recherche sur le français en Amérique (IRFA) was funded by a large union organization, the "Centrale des syndicats du Québec (CSQ)."
Suffice to say that both organizations have a 'certain' political take.
 
The 'institute' has close ties with the Office québécois de la langue française. Marc Termote, a member of its scientific committee was recently named president of the steering committee of the OQLF and Claude Castonguay, a founding member has done quite a bit of work for the 'Office.' It's president, Patrick Sabourin is a noted French language militant who has waded into the language debate on many fronts including complaining about the English mega-hospital and questioned the value of investing in McGill university. 

And so, this report, prepared by language militants and separatists, brings to mind those cigarette studies funded by the tobacco companies, in the sixties and seventies, 'proving' no scientific link between their product and cancer! 

The study closely examines the use of English by francophone and allophones students attending English cegeps. It concludes, quite rightly that these students (as compared to those who went to  a French cegep) speak much more English, look for jobs where English is used principally, read more English newspapers, watch more English movies, have more English friends and speak more English at home etc. etc.

This conclusion is entirely supported by the facts and the data provided, is quite convincing.

But does this mean, as the study intimates (but never concludes,) that English Cegeps are responsible for this anglicization?

Perhaps, perhaps not. The study never examines this specific issue.

Let's get a bit technical;

The major conclusion of the study says that;

"...there is a strong correlation between attending an English cegep and the use of English in daily life."   LINK(French)

To scientist and statisticians, this phrase is a giant red flag because it makes no reference to 'causation' 

'Correlation': the degree to which two or more attributes or measurements on the same group of elements show a tendency to vary together.

'Causation':  the action of causing or producing.

"Correlation does not imply causation" is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other. 

The conclusion that English cegeps cause Allophones and Francophones to become anglicized, uses the same logic which says people who shop at a left-handers specialty store are more inclined to become left-handers, when in truth, they are most likely left-handers to begin with.

Let us say, that the education department creates a mythical French language course for immigrants and after a few years decides that they want to evaluate the effectiveness.

They hire a specialized firm who follow the students during the two year long course. First, before the students start the course, they undertake a 'baseline survey,' designed to establish initial conditions against which the effects of a finished project can be compared.

When the students finish the course, they are again re-evaluated and the difference in language skills between the two evaluations indicates the level of effectiveness. Simple enough?

If one wants to measure the anglicizing effect of English cegeps on Allophones and Francophones, the only true method, is to analyze the students propensity towards English before they enter cegep and compare it with their propensity to use English after they graduate. By comparing the two sets of data, conclusions can be drawn.

Is this what the IRFA did to to evaluate the anglicizing effect of English cegep on Francophone and allophones?

Nope, they did nothing of the sort.
Instead they compared apples and oranges, they studied the anglicization levels of two distinct and different groups of Allophones and francophones, one group which attended French cegep and one which attended English cegep.

The two groups are very different to begin with, even before they start attending cegep, so to compare their English skills and conclude that it is the cegep that is the anglicizing factor is scientifically unsupportable.

First and foremost, in order to attend an English cegep, you NEED TO SPEAK ENGLISH, to begin with.

Students who can't speak English, go to a French cegep, they have no choice.
It is only the bilingual (or trilingual,) allophones and francophones students who can go to English cegep. 
They are in fact, already to a large degree, highly anglicized before taking a step in the door of the school. Even though they have attended a French high school, many speak English at home, or have made a giant effort to learn the language.

How much English cegeps contribute or strengthen this anglicization remains unknown.
The IRFA study does not answer this question because it never set out to do so.

Drawing conclusions about the anglicizing effect of English cegeps cannot be extrapolated from this study, even though the authors want others to do so.

The study was cleverly structured to avoid looking at this "cegep effect.'

Clever, because nowhere in the report does it directly say that English cegeps are responsible for anglicizing Francophone and Allophone students, but everyone reading it, comes to that conclusion.

And so, like other great myths perpetrated by French language militants, the 'fact' that English cegeps anglicize Francophone and allophones has been woven into the 'French is in decline' narrative, a story based on fiction, misinformation and lies, one that is sold to a gullible public, thirsty to buy into the concept that they are victims of persecution.

No editorialist in the mainstream media challenged the faulty conclusions. Not one. 

Perhaps next time they report, the 'Institute' can tell us that francophones who patronize vegetarian grocery  stores tend to transform into vegetarians at a higher rate than francophones who shop at Loblaws.

Maybe they can examine the problem of francophones who shop at soccer equipment stores, and prove that they tend to play soccer at a higher rate than those francophones who patronize hockey equipment stores.
I've no doubt that they can provide all the necessary charts to prove that this is true.

Very enlightening, but this is what passes for science in the Quebec language militant movement.

It's neat and tidy and effective,.... but it's all tommyrot!

Marc Bellemare Going Down in Flames

It seems that Marc Bellemare's credibility at the Bastarache Commission is sinking faster than the Titanic. The inquiry is looking into his allegations that Liberal party fundraisers put political pressure on him to name certain people to the bench.
Jean Charest always claimed that Bellemare's allegations were full of crap, but since the Premier himself is no longer perceived as particularly trustworthy, his denial of the influence-peddling allegations, fell on the deaf ears of a jaundiced public, already battered by all sorts of scandals.

That being said, most experts agree that once Charest called the inquiry, it augured poorly for Bellemare, Charest knew full well what, or what not could be revealed. That is why to this day we don't have an inquiry into the construction industry.

In my last post about Bellemare, I warned that although he was riding high, with a whopping 68% of the public believing his testimony, he was in for a Humpty-Dumpty-like fall.

It happened Monday, as the wheels fell off the Bellemare express.

The two witnesses that Bellemare promised would back up his story, unequivocally denied the ex-Minister's story.

"Two former aides of Marc Bellemare, Quebec's justice minister in 2003 and 2004, contradicted the key witness's testimony at a provincial inquiry into judicial nominations in Quebec City Monday." Read the CBC Story

Michel Gagnon, Bellemare's former chief of staff, gave testimony that was so devastating, that Bellemare's lawyer jumped up and down with objection after objection, trying to break the momentum. At one point, he asked the witness if he was perjuring himself. The judge was not amused!

Gagnon testified that he never heard of, or saw any attempts to influence the appointment of certain candidates as judges, nor had Bellemare ever mentioned to him, anything about it. He was unequivocal about it.

As well, he directly contradicted other Bellemare testimony concerning the alleged influence peddlers, who Bellemare denied meeting with after he left office.
Gagnon told the inquiry that Bellemare did indeed meet with them in a Quebec city restaurant in an effort to raise money to fund his mayoral campaign. Link(French)

Jacques Tétrault, Bellemare's former press secretary denied that Bellemare never informed him of any inappropriate pressure being applied to the Minister, once again, in direct contradiction to what Bellemare testified, another crushing blow.

On Tuesday, the then deputy minister Michel Bouchard, delivered another stinging blow to Bellemare, indicating that he wasn't up to the job as Justice Minister and ran a 'tense' office. He became emotional when he described the way Bellemare removed Pierre Legendre from his longtime post in the Justice Ministry, all because his brother had been elected as an opposition PQ  member of the National Assembly. Link(French)

To make matters worse, the commission is calling for an expert to look at the note Bellemare placed in evidence, one that he wrote in cryptic shorthand that purportedly documented his feelings about the so-called influence peddling. The suspicion among some commission lawyers is that the incriminating part, complaining about that pressure, was added to the note at a later date. LINK
The handwriting expert will testify today and tomorrow Bellemare is going to testify again at the commissions request.

For Bellemare it is likely a case of "Lucy, you got some 'splaining to do!"

The headlines and stories in yesterday's newspapers weren't particularly kind to Bellemare, even though he has enjoyed a somewhat free ride until now.

Montreal's Le Devoir daily, no friend of Mr. Charest, described the day's testimony as "dévastatrice," no translation needed. It also added that his two former employees "demolished his allegations"

Jean-Jacques Samson in the Journal de Quebec, described Bellemare as being "manhandled'  and called the day's testimony a "demolition derby"

The only person rushing to Bellemare's defence was the PQ leader Pauline Marois who claimed that the commission was rigged against the ex-justice minister. 

Trying desperately to cast aspersions on the testimony of the two ex-employees, she hinted at perjury  cleverly, in that old tried and true backhand manoeuvre ; (I'm not saying he's lying but....)

"Obviously, we cannot accuse anyone of perjury.... but the evidence that both provided is very similar. The words were the same... " she analyzed.  Link(French)

If Bellemare doesn't counter the damage caused Monday, in his Thursday testimony, his goose is cooked.
He may as well start settlement talks in the $700k Charest defamation lawsuit that is looking more and more like a slam/dunk.

For Charest unfortunately, any vindication comes without political reward. Those who were convinced that Charest is a liar, won't jump back on his bandwagon. It's like being acquitted of child-molestation, the stink just doesn't wash off.

For some background information, see;

The Curious Case Of Marc Bellemare