Last Word on Faulty Poll

As there was some legitimate criticism of my post about the poll published in La Presse on the Friday before the Montreal municipal election, I'd like to make some final comments.
First of all, when I wrote my post the page linked was not available. I'm not that stupid.

After reading the comment by Fagstein and following the link, I am still of the same mind that the poll was faulty.

I respect Fagstein as one of Montreal's finest bloggers (specializing in the domain of media), however I do believe I have a better insight when it comes to polling.

For twenty years as an independent political organizer, I conducted countless internal polls and I recognize when a poll is blown.

The poll in question was published on Friday, from information compiled the previous two days. The data was current, you can't do better.

The margin of error is provided to account for all the excuses that Fagstein uses to justify the erroneous results. If we'd accept that polls can be off that much because of what he describes, then no poll could be ever considered reliable. However most are. Professional pollsters know their stuff.
If we are to believe the poll, Bergeron dropped 25% and Tremblay gained 25% support in three days.
Not unheard of, but extremely unlikely.

Pollsters admit that for various reasons, about one in twenty polls are wrong to the point of badly distorting reality.
This may happen because of faulty methodology, interpretation or a sudden whirlwind shift in the opinion of the sample subject. Sometimes it is plain bad luck, where pollsters hit a large block of respondants who are unrepresentative of the general group.

Sometimes events change between the time the poll is taken and when it is scheduled to be published. In that case professional pollsters trash the poll entirely.

The fact remains. The poll was terribly wrong. In the case of the support for Mr. Bergeron and Mr Tremblay, the error was double the margin that pollsters provide themselves.

That in itself is newsworthy. La Presse should have have addressed the issue, especially since they were accused in the media of being anti-Tremblay.
Post-election, Simon Durivage, of the RDI news network commented on air "It's clear that La Presse lost it's election" ('c'est clair que La Presse a perdu ses élections").
Yves Boisvert of La Presse bristled at the barb and took Durivage to task in a column. Perhaps he should next comment on the blown poll.

The main point of of my post was that my prediction that Mr. Bergeron would win the election was based on a faulty poll. I stand by that statement. As for a conspiracy, I stand corrected.

Do you think polling is always honest?
Here's a classic and humorous example of a 'push' poll, a poll designed to elicit a certain response and meant no to gauge public opinion, but rather to shape it.

How to Throw a Protest

The Reseau de Resistance is planning to mark Prince Charle's visit to Quebec with a protest in front of the Black Watch Regiment headquarters on Bleury Street in Montreal.

It's amazing how things have changed since the old days. Today every thing is organized through Facebook.

You can visit the official protest page here, where you will find all pertinent information, including a manifesto, an invitation, a link to google maps complete with Streetview and of course, the most important element. The guest list.

You can scan the names of those who've accepted to attend and those who are considering the idea.

Very convenient for the police I'd imagine who are likely giving this event close scrutiny.

Are Quebeckers More Dishonest?

There is a majority opinion in the Western part of the country that Quebec is the most dishonest province in the country.
The latest scandals don't help dispel these type of opinions. Last week's Macleans magazine article that bashed Montreal was well deserved, but according to me, there are other places more dishonest.

Crime statistics for Quebec are decidedly lower than in the rest of the country and when it comes to violent crime, murder and drunk driving, Quebec ranks at the bottom of the list (that's good.)

But when it comes to collusion in government contracts, nobody beats Quebec. It probably comes from the very complacent attitude that Quebeckers have about graft.

Tell me, if your neighbour was out doing yard work while boasting that he was collecting disability from the government, would you rat him out?
If your brother-in-law was collecting UI while vacationing in Florida, would you denounce him?

Not many Quebeckers would. It's a nature.
People in priggish places like Ottawa would jump at the chance to sell out a cheater. It's also nature.

Quebeckers have a soft spot for larceny, but recent revelations about construction industry fixing contracts have crossed the line and Quebeckers are now furious.

Here's a video, of an extract of a show called Les Bougon. It ran for two years on Radio-Canada and detailed the life of a thieving welfare family. Quite hilarious if you are are a Quebecker, infuriating if you live west of the Ottawa river.
Francophone are well aware of the show and have enjoyed the show or hated it. Not many Anglophones watch French TV and it's too bad, there's a wealth of great shows to enjoy. The problem is the vernacular, which is very hard for a non-native speaker to pick up on.

It took me over an hour to subtitle, so please watch it!!
If you're aren't seeing the captions, click on the little pyramid in the bottom right-hand corner.

So what's the truth? Did it make you laugh or scream??

Faulty Poll Leads to Faulty Prediction

When one makes a prediction which falls flat on it's face, it's incumbent on the predictor to own up to his mistake and explain it if he can. I shall endeavour to do so now and tell you how I reached the faulty conclusion that I did concerning my prediction that Richard Bergeron would win the race for the Montreal mayoralty.

As we all know there were many unexpected events that shook both the Harel and Tremblay camps over the course of the election. It seemed that Richard Bergeron, the kooky third place candidate was emerging from also-ran status to a legitimate contender.

He had been running at between 10% and 15% popularity at the beginning of the campaign when things seemed to catch fire and with two weeks to go in the campaign his popularity shot up to 25% with the mayor and Madame Harel neck and neck in the low 30%'s.

Days before the election Angus-Reid published a poll in Montreal's La Presse newspaper indicating that Bergeron had made a stunning breakthrough.
In one short week, he had pushed his numbers to 32% and trailed Louise Harel (34%) by just 2%. Tremblay was behind both candidates at 30% and seemed to be sinking fast.

Based on these polling numbers, it was easy to see that an unstoppable momentum was building for Bergeron and should the trend have continued over the last weekend, it was likey that he'd cruise to victory.

But he didn't, so what happened?

Very simply, one of the world's leading research agencies had completely blown the last poll published in La Presse on the eve of the election.

Every polling organization tells you that their polls are accurate to 4% (the margin of error) 19 out of 20 times

WELCOME TO THE TWENTIETH TIME.

Tremblay
Actual Vote 38%            Angus Reid 30%            Difference 8%

Harel
Actual Vote 32%            Angus Reid 34%            Difference 2%

Bergeron
Actual Vote 25%            Angus Reid 32%           Difference 7%

The errors in the  numbers for Mr. Tremblay and Mr Bergeron are massive and in the polling business represent a humiliating failure.

Perhaps I should have been suspicious of a poll that showed such a monumental shift in opinion over such a short time, but Quebec voters have shown historically that they can jump on a bandwagon quickly. However I take responsibility for making a faulty judgment.

By the way, there's no comment from Angus-Reid or La Presse about the poll. In fact both organizations have purged any reference to the poll from their web sites. It's as if it never existed according to them. The only place I could get confirmation of their numbers were on sites that quoted them as in Branchez-vous. It's as if both organizations are determined to cover up the fiasco.
If you don't believe me, check out both the La Presse site and the Angus Reid site and do you own search.
Poof, the poll has disappeared.

Owning up to mistakes is an important step in reporting. I'm doing so today.

While La Presse rails on and on about the honesty of the Tremblay administration, perhaps they should take their own advice and come clean about the botched poll.

What dishonesty! Shame on La Presse and Angus Reid.

Health Update-- My Swine Flu experience

I am over the worst!

My fever has broken and I am on the path to recovery. I am not yet back to normal and am still suffering from a variety of ailments including stiffness, lethargy and headaches.

It is as the health officials promised - a couple of bad days and then recovery.

What they never mentioned is how terrible those couple of days are.

Do yourself a favour, run don't walk. Get the shot.

Incidentally, minutes after posting yesterday's piece of my Swine flu predicament, my blog was flooded by automated bots posting to the comments section, hawking all sorts of phony H1N1 remedies.
I removed them all, but sheesh, is there no decency out there?