Sovereignty Election Issue Sweet Music for Liberal Ears

PLK changes the game, but in whose favour?

For Pauline Marois bagging Pierre-Karl Péledeau as a star candidate promised to be the catalyst that would magically turn unconvinced soft nationalists into PQ voters and although Péladeau hardly represents the values and ideals of the socialist left wing party, on balance he was thought to bring along enough votes to make those within the party who opposed everything he stands for, hold their nose and bite their tongue.

But things often don't work out in life and Péledeau's jump into the ring had a startling and unforeseen effect, somehow making sovereignty and the Independence of Quebec the prime election issue, instead of the Charter of Values, which was the sure-fire issue that the PQ had hoped to run its election on.

With now the fearful referendum elephant out of the bag, and in full discussion, the Quebec Liberal Party may be poised to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and early polls indicate that it might just be happening.

The latest poll released after Péledeau's entry into the fray shows voters in the Quebec City region going solidly Liberal at the expense of the CAQ, demonstrating an  'Anything But Pauline' movement taking root.

The Liberal troops of Philippe Couillard seem to have refueled at the expense of CAQ , while in December the François Legault team was leading in the polls.

Christian Bourque, vice-president of Leger Marketing, said this polarization may be  "Anybody bu Pauline"phenomenon, among other explanations. Link

 The Quebec City region represents the traditional power base of the CAQ, but support looks like it is collapsing around the Francois Legault party, as voters opposed to a new referendum rally around the only party that can stop Pauline.

Péladeau is controversial man and stalwarts in the PQ are having a hard time digesting him, already there is cracks in the walls of separatist support and his presence may also have the effect of pushing hardliners to move towards more radical option like Quebec Solidaire and Option National.
Péladeau is going to be a liability, mark my words. There's just too much there to dislike and the campaign is just underway, with reporters scurrying to find dirt on him.


The FTQ, Quebec's largest union has come out firmly against Péladeau and has for the first time in its history, refused to endorse the PQ, nor officially make its membership available as campaign workers.
The attacks have started already;

"The Liberal candidate in the riding of Charlesbourg, François Blais, questioned whether Pauline Marois  endorses the report published in 2011 by the PQ candidate in Charlesbourg, Dominique Payette, about journalism and the future of information in Quebec.
The working group led by Ms. Payette had recommended that government advertising be reserved for newspaper companies that adhered to the Quebec Press Council. "Quebecor Media have left the Press Council in 2009 and 2010," said Mr. Blais statement. "Does the outgoing Premier and his candidate in Charlesbourg continue to endorse the Payette report now that the former boss of Quebecor Pierre Karl Peladeau is PQ candidate? " Link{fr}

But the big effect of the Péladeau entrance is to have shifted  the debate  to the independence issue, something PQ strategist wanted to steer away from, their political Achilles Heel.

As Marois gets sucked into s discussing independence her credibility as a leader nose-dives;

"A sovereign Quebec would use the Canadian dollar and request a seat on the Bank of Canada’s decision-making body, Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois said Wednesday on the campaign trail.
The PQ Leader pointed to several studies on the matter conducted in the early 1990s which showed that there would be no obstacles for an independent Quebec to using the Canadian dollar. However, getting a seat on the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council would be more difficult.

“Obviously we may wish to get a seat at the Bank of Canada but we would accept the Canadian monetary policies,” Ms. Marois said.Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard said Ms. Marois is living in a dream world.
“The PQ always tries to take us to an imaginary world, Alice in Wonderland, where everything is going to be so great. No borders, no passport, it’s fantastic. Everybody’s going to be great friends,” said Mr. Couillard." Link

 For Couillard and the Liberals, hammering on the independence issue is the ticket to election success and the real question is whether the PQ will swallow the bait and engage in those sovereignty debate.

Now that Marois has opened up the Pandora's box about borders and dollars, it is time for the federal government to step in with an attack. We were promised by Denis Lebel that if the PQ discussed issues that involve Ottawa, they would reserve the right of reply.
That time has come.
Any back and forth with Ottawa over referendums, borders and dollars will have a scathing effect, a discussion that practically all voters want to avoid., sweet music to Liberal ears and poison for the PQ.

The more the issue of sovereignty is seriously, debated, the farther the PQ will sink.
With 61% of Quebecers saying they would vote NO in a new referendum, discussing its likelihood  an electoral disaster for the PQ.
And by the way, the 31% of those who say they will vote YES in a referendum, don't necessarily want to have a referendum either, the fear of another crushing humiliation too much to take.

One of the more interesting aspects of Quebec politics is how quickly things can change and how the fortunes of political parties can wax and wane, virtually overnight.

If the Liberals play their cards right and the PQ plays their cards wrong (as they seem to be doing) we may just see a new Premier come election day.

All this is courtesy of the talk of sovereignty and Marois' sad and fantastical predictions of a sovereign Quebec, prosperous, without borders and spending money graced with Queen portrait, and the presumptuous assumption that Canada will embrace Quebec Independence and sit around the fraternal fire pit and sing Kumbaya, something even committed sovereigntist don't believe as realistic

Marois has been roundly ridiculed in the Press for her glowing and imaginative view of Quebec independence, preaching to an audience who doesn't want to hear about it.

As long a Couillard keeps up the sovereignty debate going and as long as the PQ take up the debate, the election become a toss-up.

And remember readers, that in analyzing future polls, the Liberal support is always under-represented as we saw in the last election, where the got 4% more votes than predicted in any poll.