But even if the Liberals get a minority government, it's probably just as well, considering that the small group of surviving CAQ members would be in no mood to bring down the government under any circumstances, considering their precarious situation and the fact that the party itself would be decimated and either on the verge of collapse or in dire need of a rebuilding period.
If François Legault loses his seat (which is a distinct possibility) the party might collapse if the Liberals offer a couple of juicy cabinet posts for key survivors, a turn of events which actually would represent a best case scenario.
But the unforeseen meltdown that has befallen the PQ election campaign is another lesson to Quebec politicians that calling premature elections based on polls, which are notoriously fickle, is a risky business to say the least.
I can imagine the PQ ministers contemplating losing their chauffeured limousines and privileged status, ruing the day Pauline called the election at a time where there was no expectation of being defeated in the National Assembly, the CAQ practically begging the PQ for some small compromises to avoid forcing its hand.
Chalk up this election to the over-confident Bernard Drainville, who pushed the party into a hardline and uncompromising position on the Charter of Values, believing that an election could and would be won on the divisive issue, only to see his pet project fade to black during the campaign.
But that miscalculation can actually be forgiven, because at the time, it seemed like a sure bet. The polls were with the PQ (oh..those polls again..) with support for the Charter in the hinterland, the traditional PQ base, overwhelmingly strong.
Now mistakes by backbench MNAs or novice candidates are to be expected and can be chalked up to inexperience or poor coaching and handling, but the PQ campaign is bleeding from a head wound, with Pauline herself the author of most of the PQ misfortune.
The disastrous turn of events that saw the campaign debate turn from the Charter to referendums and sovereignty can be laid at Pauline's feet and hers alone.
Party strategists are supposed to concoct what they believe is a winning strategy and handlers are supposed to keep their political bosses on point, but it's as if these tried and true political rules don't apply to the PQ and as experienced campaign managers will tell you, there's no more dangerous ground than that covered by politicians who ad lib or think out loud.
Good politicians are disciplined to a fault, seldom deviating from the party line, scripted discourse and canned responses.The best can even handle reporters, deflecting questions they don't want to answer, or answering a completely different question when convenient.
I imagine that seasoned PQ organizers are shaking their heads in frustration at the utter amateurism displayed by Pauline, she is after all in her umpteenth campaign.
Marois is a feisty and seasoned debater when prepared, as we saw in the leaders' debate where she acquitted herself decently, considering that she was savagely attacked by all three of the other leaders like a pack of dogs.
When prepared and on script, Marois is a force, so it remains puzzling to see Marois so badly off balance.
Some of her mistakes are hers to own, but sometimes happenstance or good or bad luck plays a hand in political fortunes.
Those circumstances are unavoidable and as they say in politics and in life...Shit happens.
Who could have predicted that the arrival of media mogul Pierre-Karl Péladeau could backfire so badly. His arrival was heralded as the second coming, a man whose business success was supposed to give the PQ credibility with regards to experience and acumen in the business world, a glaring weakness in the PQ stable of talent.
But his ill-conceived fist salute to sovereignty and his opening statement that his entry into politics was based on his goal of bringing the province quickly to independence, was egregiously off-message.
Pauline could have quickly brought things to order, returning the discourse to established talking points, but instead foolishly ruminated on post-sovereignty borders, trade and monetary policy, a discourse that went over like the proverbial lead balloon.
The renewed discussion of sovereignty and referendums was a subject about as well received by voters as an open discussion on hemorrhoids and so the PQ paid the price almost immediately.
The star candidate, was dead in the water and went from hero to zero faster than any politician I have ever seen.
While the PQ stalwarts overlooked his very real incompatibility with PQ philosophy, they were willing to hold their noses over the expectation that he would take them over the top, to a majority government.
When his ill-conceived sovereignty gambit bit him and the party in the arse, the PQ boo-birds who were holding their tongues were unleashed.
So far did PKP sink that during a press conference, Marois literally shoved him aside, preferring to answer a question herself, rather then letting PKP put another foot in his mouth.
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| Pauline shoves PKP out of the Picture! |
How the billionaire allowed himself to be treated so shabbily is beyond comprehension.
When you're that rich, you can expect that NOBODY PUTS BABY IN THE CORNER.
And so PKP went from a powerful campaign element to a sad fool, from Pierre Powerhouse to Pierre Putz.
But that wasn't all, it seems that other PQ stalwarts also made their best effort to shame the party with gaffes of their own, none worse that the outgoing Justice Minister Bernard St. Arnaud who got bitch-slapped by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGEQ) over his public pronouncements that Ontario students were trying to steal the election.
We hadn't seen hide nor hair of the justice minister for well nigh six months, as he desperately avoided the obligation to answer questions over the legality of the Charter of Values., so his inopportune accusation against the students can be compared to the shy wallflower at the prom who overcomes her fear to head out on the dance floor from the shadows, only to make an utter fool of herself.
And so the campaign has shifted sharply in the Liberals favour, a campaign where Couillard has said and done nothing, a surefire recipe for success, or so it seems.
It appears that this election will be won by the party that makes the least mistakes, not the one making the best political case for itself.
To use a hockey analogy, the Liberals, after trailing 2-0 at the end of the first period, have come back to take a 3-2 lead at the end of the second. Starting the third period, the question is whether they can hang on. It's too early to start ragging the puck, the PQ is going to respond with a ferocious counter-effort, highlighted by a nasty smear campaign and Couillard has to be able to get a lick or two in, of his own.
Today in the Journal de Montreal, another smear story appeared, this one dating back to 1999 which discusses who Jean Charest had lunch and dinner with, intimating that all these meetings were nefarious.
Pure smear. Link{fr}
Yesterday we learned that a couple of months ago, two senior PQ organizers were met by the corruption police and the revelation sparked Pauline to assure us that the investigators just wanted some background information about how political parties finance themselves.
What an utter crock!
We heard the same lame-ass excuse from Michael Applebaum about the visits he received from UPAC (corruption police) and as the old proverb goes .....Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.
Couillard has announced that he is going to release his and his wife's financials and challenged both Marois and Legault to do the same.
Pauline immediately refused, offering some lame ass excuse, a refusal which can be played for an advantage for a day or two..
With the campaign winding down, deflective issues are important and using another sports analogy, that of boxing, it's time for Couillard to clutch and grab, being ahead on points in the final rounds.
