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| Brent Tyler...dragon slayer! |
But the winds of fortune have shifted for the Conservatives and not in a good way with support softening, especially due to the Senate scandal.
In an effort to shift the optic, Harper is making a another major shift in policy towards Quebec, after first trying engagement, then benign neglect and now open hostility.
And so, once and for all, Harper is writing off Quebec in an attempt to consolidate power elsewhere in Canada and from here, there is no road back.
For the Conservatives, as with the PQ, it now suits the political agenda to enter into a 'chicane' with Quebec, where if and when the fight gets nasty and loud, he can count on a fed-up ROC backing his play to the hilt.
The louder constitutional war drums beat in Quebec City and Ottawa, the better for the Conservatives, that is the Harper rationale.
When the issue of sovereignty and Quebec nationalism rears its ugly head in any serious manner, it becomes the defining political issue of the day and voters, looking for a gladiator, will overlook almost any past transgressions and peccadillo.
Of all the federal leaders, most Canadians view Harper as the most viable adversary to Quebec's aggressive nationalist policy and best suited to defend Canada's interests.
Would you really want to see Justin Trudeau or worse still Thomas Mulcair take on Quebec?
There is a profound change in attitudes in the ROC concerning Quebec and Harper may be tapping into the growing sentiment that appeasement has gone too far.
Harper has demonstrated the ability to form a majority government without Quebec, so throwing the recalcitrant province under the bus, a cynical but altogether viable option.
The Achilles Heel of the federal Liberals and Ndper's is the issue of Quebec, both Trudeau and Mulcair seen to be coddling enablers.
Here's the NDP's sad-sack position on independence:
If the issue of Quebec gains traction as a bone of contention in the next election, you can count on another Conservative majority government and so the wheels are turning.
Harper now accepts what we all knew for a while, that Conservatives are dead and buried in Quebec, with no hope of improving fortunes in the next federal election.
Harper is the only federal leader who will benefit from a political fight with Quebec and this, big time.
Also to be considered is the impending court date for the Bill 99 challenge mounted by private citizen Keith Henderson, ably represented by Brent Tyler.
Clearly Bill 99 is going to be struck down and Harper cannot resist stealing the credit, after all, leaving it up to Tyler and Henderson to defend the Canadian Constitution, especially since they will inevitably win their day in court, is not good politics.
It would for all intents and purposes show up the federal government as negligent and perhaps gun-shy, not something that Harper could tolerate.
For Tyler and Henderson, its been a rough and expensive road and so if the Feds are going to steal their thunder, I hope Ottawa will have the decency to reimburse them fully for their time and effort.
I know it has been very rough on them, both financially and emotionally.
Now for those unfamiliar with the case, let's briefly deconstruct what has and is going on.
For an excellent and very detailed account read this Maclean's article.
After Quebec's narrow referendum loss, Stephane Dion, the then Liberal Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs asked the Supreme Court to pronounce itself on the legality of independence and referendums via three key questions.
On September 30, 1996, Dion submitted three questions to the Supreme Court of Canada constituting the Supreme Court Reference re Secession of Quebec:
- Under the Constitution of Canada, can the National Assembly, legislature, or government of Quebec effect the secession of Quebec from Canada unilaterally?
- Does international law give the National Assembly, legislature, or government of Quebec the right to effect the secession of Quebec from Canada unilaterally? In this regard, is there a right to self-determination under international law that would give the National Assembly, legislature, or government of Quebec the right to effect the secession of Quebec from Canada unilaterally?
- In the event of a conflict between domestic and international law on the right of the National Assembly, legislature, or government of Quebec to effect the secession of Quebec from Canada unilaterally, which would take precedence in Canada? Wikipedia
On August 20, 1998, the Supreme Court answered, concluding that Quebec does not have the right to secede unilaterally under Canadian or international law. However, the Government of Canada would have to enter into negotiations with the Quebec government if Quebeckers expressed a clear will to secede. It confirmed that the Parliament of Canada had the power to determine whether or not a referendum question was clear enough to trigger such negotiations. The Constitution of Canada would remain in effect until terms of secession were agreed to by all parties involved, and these terms would have to respect principles of democracy; minority and individual rights as outlined in the Canadian constitution. WikipediaThis led to Ottawa drafting the Clarity Act which set out the terms and conditions for sovereignty which includes the requirement for a clear referendum question and a clear majority.
Lucien Bouchard and the PQ replied several days later with Bill 99, passed in the Quebec Parliament, which basically said that Quebec and Quebec alone could decide the terms and conditions of any referendum on sovereignty.
Bill 99
FINAL PROVISIONS
13. No other parliament or government may reduce the powers, authority,sovereignty or legitimacy of the National Assembly, or impose constraints on the democratic will of the Quebec people to determine its own future.”Are you kidding me?
This last clause is not only unconstitutional but patently ridiculous, because under the terms, if a majority separatist government is elected, it could then make up its own rules, perhaps lowering the threshold to 25% plus one or restrict eligibility to participate in the referendum to citizens born in Quebec or allow children aged 16 to vote, or anything else they wished in order to tip the scales.
Ridiculous?
My examples may be exaggerated, but if the question of sovereignty is only a Quebec matter, to be decided by Quebecers alone under terms and conditions that itself dictates, there is nothing to stop a majority separatist government from declaring unilateral independence without a referendum
Clearly Bill 99 cannot withstand any court challenge, it is just too stupid.
Read the petition written by Brent Tyler, who remains one of the very few heroes in the fight against unfettered Quebec nationalism.
I caught Brent giving a couple of interviews on the French language network and must congratulate him on his calm demeanour and sang-froid.
In one interview on a morning show, Salut Bonjour!, the woman putting questions to Brent looked like she wanted to murder him.
Here's another interview where Brent toys with his Radio-Canada interlocutor. Link{fr}
Everyone, including the PQ knows how this will turn out, with Bill 99 eviscerated and the Clarity Act, the law of the land.
It reminds me of the original Bill 101 that was so clearly unconstitutional, one provision after another has been struck down over the years.
The comical part about this, is that the majority of Quebecers actually support both the Clarity Act and Bill 99 at the same time, a contradiction in terms, which speaks to the intelligence of voters.
Lucien Bouchard admitted that if he had asked Quebecers to pronounce against the Clarity Act via a referendum, he would have lost and so clearly the province remains bound by its terms, like it or not.
No doubt the PQ will declare another 'humiliation' in the inevitable rejection of the courts of Bill 99 and if they'd like to make a fight about it, they have a partner in Stephen Harper.
If The Charter of Secularism is passed, there's no doubt now that Ottawa will challenge the law as well, Harper's action in regards to Bill 99 now paves the way.
Let us remember that next year, the Equalization Payment program is up for renewal and if Harper decides to punish Quebec in order to win support in the ROC, well.... I don't want to think about.
