Léger Poll: Smoke, Mirrors and Statistical Errors

I can't say I'm a big fan of the Léger Marketing group, a company that in my opinion, skates awfully close to the offside line in producing opinion polls that are tailored to provide results that clients demand.

Sneaky? Dishonest?
How about the way the company cleverly hides the French accent aigu (é) in their logo, preserving its Quebec pedigree here, while obscuring the fact that it is a Franco-Quebec company to clients in English North America.
There must be some research out there that holds that French diacritical marks on names are a turn-off to Anglophones, even the mighty  Céline Celine Dion caved and got rid of the accent in her name, perhaps like Léger, believing that they would be more presentable to the massive English-language world.

At any rate,  Léger struck out rather badly in the last Quebec election, woefully underestimating Liberal party support, highlighting the fact that the four-percent margin error that they reserve for themselves, is a lot more critical than they intimate.

"With two days until Quebec's provincial election, the  separatist Parti Quebecois remained poised to win a majority government, according to an exclusive Leger Marketing poll conducted for QMI Agency. The last QMI Agency poll before Quebecers vote on Sept. 4 placed the PQ in the lead at 33%, with the CAQ in second at 28% and the Liberals at 27%.
The percentages for all three major parties remained unchanged since the last Leger poll, which was published on Aug. 24." Link

We all know that the results of the election were much closer than Léger predicted and that the six percentage point difference between support for the PQ and the Liberals as predicted, was a far cry from the less than one percent (PQ-31.95%.....Lib -31.20%) which was borne out on election day.
This incidentally was outside the margin of error, although I'm sure Léger would argue that it wasn't because the Liberal party strength was under-reported by about 4% and that the PQ strength was over-reported by 2%, both within the margin of error, when considered individually.
Adding the two numbers together the difference was indeed about 5%-6%, outside the margin, but I guess it's a case on interpretation.
You say ta-may-toe, I say ta-mah-to

Interestingly, when I spoke to Liberal party insiders, they told me that one of the reasons that Jean Charest called the last provincial election was because their own internal party polling numbers showed the Liberals and the PQ neck and neck.

Sadly, I'm pretty sure that the Léger poll actually affected the razor-thin outcome of the election, as some voters, considering the poll in the closing days of the campaign were motivated or demotivated to go out and vote.
There is also a  minority of fence-sitters who actually are swayed to vote for the predicted winner.
Had Léger not published the inaccurate polling projections, we might very well have elected a minority Liberal government!

To be fair, other polling companies have done as abysmally poor of late, wrongly predicting the outcomes in both the recent Alberta and British Columbia provincial elections, in both cases botching the predictions  so badly that they actually projected the wrong party as winners and this, not by a tiny margin. Read a story about these polling failures

All these polling disasters confirm the fact that polling has actually become less and less accurate over the years, something surprising in a world where technological breakthroughs has led to better and more accurate results in just about every field of human endeavor.

There are many reasons for this decline in polling accuracy. The cell phone age makes it harder to contact a targeted sample, where landlines of the past, pinpointed exactly where people lived. People today have also become less and less predictable, often changing their minds often before an election. Also, there is a dramatic drop in the number of people willing to participate in opinion polls, with privacy a very real and modern concern.
And so today, interpreting the shrinking numbers is as important as the numbers themselves.
Given the significantly higher numbers of undecided and non-responders, pollsters can no longer just ignore them and have to 'weigh' their impact, determining if they share a statistically significant disposition, substantially different form those who responded to the poll.

It isn't an easy task and we've seen pollsters in all three provincial elections badly misinterpret what information they had, where the undecided and unresponsive skewed widely towards the party that held power before the election.

Of all types of opinion polls, political polls should be the most accurate, after all, those being questioned are simply asked whether they will vote for party or candidate A, B or C.
Nothing complicated there, or so it seems and yet pollsters are getting it wrong at an alarming and expanding rate.

All this takes me to question the results of a poll that asks much more complicated questions, public perceptions on policy, where the nature of the questions may well determine or 'skew' the outcome itself, which is exactly what happened in the poll commissioned by the PQ and conducted by Léger, to 'determine' Quebecers' position in relation to religious accommodation.

This poll was commissioned by a PQ government with an agenda, wherein the poll is meant to validate and bolster support of their particular point of view over accommodations.
These types of polls are never be published if the conclusions aren't supportive and quite frankly, therein lies the rub.
Pollsters are expected to deliver supporting results and those that do are rewarded with repeat business, those that don't, are cast aside.

More often than not, the actual polling questions are dishonestly skewed to favour an expected result, it is the dirty secret of the industry.

Let us take for example this question;
"Do you agree that immigrants have a negative influence on our economy"

..and lets us compare it to this question;
"Do you agree that immigrants have a positive influence on our economy"

It is basically the same question, asked  from the opposite point of view, but in a perfect world, we could expect that  if 60% of respondents agreed with the first question , then only 40% of respondents should agree with the second.
 But it just doesn't work that way at all, the nature of the question may very well result in 60% of the sample agreeing to both questions!

To be fair, the pollster should actually have asked this question;
"Do you believe that immigrants have a positive or negative influence on our economy"

In polling, the devil is in the question, and asking the right question is the crux of fairness, while asking a loaded question, an exercise in spin.
By the way, I'm not sure that even the third question above is indeed fair as well, because the question implies that immigrants are different.
We can  reference Werner Heisenberg's  Uncertainty Principle which tells us that the very act of observing, changes the result.

In fact a polling question that reflects bias, can never yield meaningful results.

• Do you agree that  Jewish people are by nature controlling? 
• Do you agree that devout Christians are intolerant?
• Do you agree that Pro-Life activists are dangerous?
• Do you agree that Native Canadians are lazy?
• Do you agree that Canadian Muslims pose a threat?

Really?
Can these loaded questions ever yield statistically valid data, or does the very nature of the question skew towards statistical manipulation?

And so we come to the poll commissioned by the Quebec government in respect to the debate over accommodations.
I must say, gentle readers, that I am outraged and furious at the crass manipulation and dishonesty of the entire Léger/Quebec government poll.

The very first question and the keynote of the entire poll is this gem.
Do you agree that:
"Putting an end to unreasonable accommodations favours social cohesion and integration" 

Are you kidding me?
I haven't  seen a more loaded and dishonest query, since the last referendum question.
If I was to answer the question, I would have to respond affirmatively because I don't believe in unreasonable accommodations, in fact who actually does?

Let me rephrase the question a little differently;
"Refusing to give into unreasonable demands by your children builds familial cohesion." 

Who would disagree with that statement?

We all define 'unreasonable accommodations" differently, what is reasonable or unreasonable to one person, may or may not be to another.
But however we define 'unreasonable', we certainly would not be in favour of it!
I'm surprised anybody at all answered the question with a NO!

The rest of the poll builds on the same negative theme and cascades down to the point of ludicrousness where by the end, 60% of those queried, agreed that private schools should be included in provisions of a potential law that limits religious accommodations.

Think of the implications...
It would mean that private Catholic and Jewish schools would not be allowed to teach religion and that a Crucifix or Star of David could not be displayed nor worn by teachers! In a Muslim school, teachers would be barred from wearing a hijab and teaching the Koran!

And by the way, according to the poll, 62% of Francophones and 28% of anglophones believe that doctors should not be allowed to treat patients while wearing a kippa (skullcap) or hijab.
I could only imagine the international scorn such an interdiction would raise. Bizarrely, it would put Quebec in the same class as Iran and Saudi Arabia when it comes to religious tolerance!

How have we arrived at this intolerant juncture.
Well, the PQ has harped on the subject so long and so loudly, that Quebecers are actually now frightened by immigrants, egged on by a public debate over what good Quebecers should or should not tolerate.

Polls like this help fan the flames of intolerance.
Public discussions by politicians about how they are going to come down on Muslims, Jews, Sikhs and other minorities adds fuel to the already toxic level of xenophobia.
It's sad and disgusting.

The entire poll is crafted to yield certain results that the government wants in order to push ahead.
By the way, you can view the entire poll HERE, but it is in French.

......One last comment on the poll.

There appears to be a serious statistical error.
When the responses of 'Anglophones' and 'Allophones' are added to yield a combined percentage called 'Non-Francophones,' the results appear to be erroneous.

Simply put, Léger pollsters forget to put more statistical weight on the more numerous Anglophone responses.

As indicated in the poll, 58% of Anglophones and 70% of Allophones were in agreement with the statement. Combining the two yields, according to the Léger, yields 65%, which is statistically incorrect.

Consider two groups of people.
Group A consists of ten fat people averaging 200 pounds each.
Group B consists of six thin people averaging 150 pounds each.

In order to find the average weight for everybody, you'd have to add up all the pounds and divide by the total number of people.
Group A (10 x 200lbs,=2,000lbs.) + Group B (6x 150lbs=900lbs) = 2,900lbs divided by 16 people=181 lbs. average.

What Léger appears to have done is to just take the average between the 200lbs average of Group A and the 150lbs average of group B, yielding a 175 lbs., an error a first semester statistician would never make!
For those mathematically inclined here's a deeper explanation.
All the following numbers are extrapolated directly from the diagram.

Of the 324 Anglophones who were queried, 12% declined to answer, leaving 285 who did respond, of which 58% or 165 were in agreement with the statement.
Of the 179 Allophones that were queried, 6% declined to answer, leaving 165 who did respond, of which 70% or 116 were in agreement with the statement. 
Between the two groups, 450 people responded, of whom 281 agreed with the statement.
That yields 62% NOT the 65% indicated in the poll.

With the error corrected, the grand total also changes from 70% to 68.2%  By the way, this error is reproduced in every single question.

Readers, I promise you this.
Somebody at Léger is going to read this post and if I am wrong, I will hear about it immediately.
If I am wrong I will apologize.

If I am right, there will be a deathly silence.

French versus English Volume 85

This week in Quebec Corruption

The Journal de Montreal is reporting that ex-Laval Mayor Gilles Vallancourt sent millions of dollars in payola cash to Switzerland via couriers, even children, family members who ferried the money across the Atlantic. Link{fr}
The scheme involved several people including lawyers, collectors and family members which makes the whole affair if proven, a criminal enterprise.
It would be the first time that the law against criminal organizations would be applied to white collar criminals.

If you think that the Charbonneau Commission is sending Quebecers for a loop, wait until the Vaillancourt mess goes to trial, where it will no doubt create a sensation unseen in the annals of Quebec Canadian criminal trials.

There's no doubt that with so many players, there's a line-up of those willing to turn states evidence and rat out the mayor, who police really want to see in jail.

A word of advice to the future defendants, stick to trial by judge, because the average Quebecer as a potential juror would like nothing else than to stick it to these guys.

By the way, the article stated that the RCMP had a file on Vaillancourt way back before 2000.
So what took them so long????

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"Seems part of the reason Montreal's streets are a pothole-ridden mess every spring is because the quality of asphalt has become poorer over the last decade.
And part of the reason for that, is because of collusion between construction companies.
So says Gilles Théberge, a former construction executive who took the stand again today at the Charbonneau Commission." Read the rest of the story at CJAD

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Meanwhile Dr. Arthur Porter, the central figure in the Montreal super hospital bribery scandal, was arrested in Panama, along with his wife.

Her role in the matter has never been made public.

Porter had claimed he was too ill to travel with late-stage cancer while in the Bahamas and so more questions are raised about his supposed illness.

It remains to be seen if Porter will fight extradition, but if he's smart he will not as his treatment here will likely be better than being placed in custody in Panama.

Stay-tuned.  Read the story

UPDATE"  ........Porter says he won't fight extradition

Here's a thought...
What if Porter isn't lying and he does have terminal cancer?
He'll never see trial because of his illness and by bringing him back, all we are doing is picking up some very expensive health bills.....Hmmmm!

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The chief of staff of the Minister of Families, Lucie Papineau has resigned her position after eight months on the job because according to her boss, she only agreed that she'd stay on for six months.

Hmm..... When the minister Nicole Leger made the announcement of her appointment, she never mentioned that it was a short-term affair.

Could it be because Madame Papineau was  named in the Charbonneau Commission not once, but twice, in relation to illegal donations on the PQ side? Link{fr}

 ***************

"The whole corruption scandal that has enveloped Quebec has had people shaking their heads at the audacity and the pervasiveness of the affair.

But until now, it seemed to be a conspiracy of the willing, there was no talk of violence.

Well that all changed with the publication of this story;

"The owner of a construction company was likely beaten to death because he wouldn't participate in a corrupt system, said a witness at the Charbonneau Inquiry.
Serge Loiselle and his wife were attacked inside their Salaberry de Valleyfield home in November 2011, and Loiselle later died of his injuries.
He was the owner and president of Ali Excavation, a successful construction company that won contracts throughout the region.
But Gilles Théberge, a now retired manager of Sintra Construction, said Loiselle's success proved his undoing.
According to Théberge, Loiselle was an honest man who refused to take part in the widespread collusion that is rampant in Quebec's construction industry. His refusal to co-operate with other construction companies and artificially inflated prices meant Ali Excavation was easily able to win contracts, and undercut the profit margin of other companies." Read more

 Also:

Contractor describes being threatened by bid-rigging companies
It was impossible to even make bids on public projects in Laval without being threatened by other players in a corrupt system said the latest witness at the Charbonneau Inquiry.
Construction entrepreneur Pierre Allard is the owner of a small construction firm that tried to work in Laval, but was quickly swept up and strong-armed by other construction companies.
Allard said his company had no difficulty bidding and winning on public contracts, but problems began when he decided to bid on on public-private contract to connect water mains and sewers in a housing development to the municipal network.: Read more

Quebec soaks Canada for $20 billion a year

"A Journal de Montreal  story reports that Statistics Quebec, a government agency, has confirmed that Quebec is the big, big winner in federal government transfers, taking out a shocking twenty billion more than it puts into the federal pot.

"In 2011, federal spending in Quebec reached $61.6 billion. This includes spending on goods and services, money transfers to Quebec companies and individuals (old age pension, unemployment insurance, child benefits) in money transfers to the provincial government (equalization, etc..) and to municipalities, interest on the Quebec portion of the federal debt, etc..

Revenue from Quebec peaked in 2011 at about $ 42.5 billion." Link{fr-PW}

The journalist Michel Girard goes on to say;

"Defenders of Quebec independence may argue that 2011 might have been an exceptional year. 
Nope! 
In 2010, the "sovereignty balance" also showed a large deficit of $19.2 billion.
In fact, the "sovereignty balance" has deteriorated significantly since 2004. At that time, we saw a negative variance of only $967 million. Ever since 2008, the gap exceeds $11 billion annually, with the federal government spending a whole lot more money in Quebec than it withdraws through the taxes.

STUDIES
I hope these economic statistics, compiled by the Institut de la statistique du Québec, will be the subject of future serious analysis over the economic viability of Quebec sovereignty.
This should partially answer questions from Jacques Parizeau. He urged this week, the  Marois government to table  economic studies that can shed light on the advantages of an independent Quebec rather the status quo of Canadian federalism." Link{fr-PW}

I think this clear and concise article will put to bed any claim that sovereigntists can make over the economic benefits of sovereignty.
How will they react to the story?

They won't, they will keep silent and hope the issue fades from memory, because to debate the issue publicly, would be just too devastating.

By the way, not to toot my horn, but this story is old news, last November I created this infogram that indicated the difference in what Quebec gives and gets from Ottawa.
It is the story wherein I correlate the numbers and conclude that for every dollar Quebec sends to Ottawa it receives back $1.45. Read my post: Quebec Propagandists Get a Dose of Reality

Equality Party takes heat for Howard Galganov comments

Only about 50 people turned out for an Equality part meeting in which Howard Galganov gave the keynote address.

"PQ power gives rise to ‘Angryphone’ lunacy" -Dan Delmar
With the rise of Pauline Marois as Quebec Premier, along with one of the more radical incarnations of her Parti Québécois, comes inevitably the rise of the province’s “Angryphone” movement; a controversial designation referring to politically-active Anglophones who are the most vigorous defendors (sic) of linguistic rights. For the first time in years, they have resurfaced and attained new heights of lunacy.  Read the rest of the story

But the article raised many hackles, so check out the many negative reactions to the story in the comments section.

Court reverses prayer ban at city council meetings

I hope Bernard Drainville takes a close look at the decision of the Quebec Appeals court which reversed a decision by the Quebec Human Rights Tribunal banning the practice of the Saugenauy city council from reciting a prayer before town council meetings.

"The Quebec Court of Appeal reversed a decision of the Quebec Human Rights Tribunal and is allowing the City of Saguenay to recite a prayer before council meetings, all the while condemning the attitude of Mayor Jean Tremblay in this debate.

In a decision written by Justice Guy Gagnon, the three judges who heard the case believe that reciting a prayer and the nature of the prayer in question does not violate the religious neutrality of the City. In other words, the court concluded that the City of Saguenay imposes no religious views to its citizens and its government action is immune from such influence. Link{fr}

According to Mr. Drainville, the government does not take a position on religion and is committed to keeping it out of the public administration, unless......it is Christian in nature!
Oh, those pesky courts!!!!!

Pierre-Karl Peladeau tries to mask separatist leaning

Ex-media scion, Pierre Karl Peladeau, now safely ensconced in the PQ camp, who was named as head honcho of Hydro-Quebec by the PQ government, has finally let his allegiance out of the bag, as if it was a secret!

Péladeau Backtracks

QUEBEC - The new chairman of the board of directors of Hydro-Québec, businessman Pierre Karl Peladeau, backtracked Friday, after noting the depth and sincerity of an appeal for sovereignty launched by  former Premier Bernard Landry.

Mr. Peladeau, who took up his new job just ten days ago, expressed himself during a question and answer period following a speech by Mr. Landry.....
...Mr. Landry said that Quebec's economic situation would be better if Quebec were independent and he concluded his speech by inviting the audience to think and decide for themselves. Columnist Alain Dubuc, who introduced the former Premier, in response, said he endorsed all  what Mr. Landry said in relation to the economy, but not the end-game of  sovereignty, a divergence that triggered laughter from the audience....

....Commenting from the floor, Mr. Peladeau  expressed satisfaction with the final passage of Mr. Landry's speech and in referring to the comments of Mr. Dubuc, who writes for La Presse, said; "It is true that Mr. Dubuc could report what you said, but probably something he couldn't do, is to recreate the sincere and profound conclusions.

During a press briefing that followed, Mr. Peladeau, the controlling shareholder of Quebecor (TSX: QBR),  distanced himself, arguing that he was really referring to aspects of the speech by  Mr. Landry about entrepreneurs who contributed to the building of Quebec.....

....During the last election,  Mr. Peladeau's spouse, host Julie Snyder, had publicly expressed support for Ms. Marois. Read the rest of the story Link{fr}

Private Investment plummets under the PQ

Investment between Sept. 1, 2012 and March 31, 2013 ( Péquiste gvt.)
Public Investments       $1.7 billion
Private investment : :    $1.6 billion
Total : :                          $3.3 billion
Source: Quebec Ministry of Fiance

---

Investment between Sept. 1, 2011 and March 31, 2012 ( Liberal gvt.)
Public Investments :   $908 million
Private investment :    $3.2 billion
Total :                         $4.2 billion
Source: Quebec Ministry of Fiance

---

  "If one believes the figures presented Friday by the government itself, private investment totaled $ 1.6 billion between September 1, 2012 and March 31, 2013 compared to $ 3.27 billion for the same period last year, when the Liberals were in power. This represents a decrease of 51.14% or $ 1.67 billion." {Fr-PW}

Jacques Villeneuve's parting shot

"Former Formula 1 champion Jacques Villeneuve said he left Quebec because of the province’s language laws, business climate and the general “morose ambiance.”
In an exclusive interview with QMI Agency, Villeneuve, who works as an F1 analyst on French and Italian television, said he “no longer felt at home” in Quebec. Link

The reaction to this story is disproportionate to his fame.
Newspapers and letter writers are raging over the slight with the most virulent attack launched by La Presse columnist Francis Vailles who stooped to reminding readers that Villeneuve's singing career tanked, somehow making his opinion invalid.
The rest of the screed was akin to the childhood taunt...  "ya mudder wears army boots"
My favourite comment under the story was this, from

"I greatly respect your opinions, which are often above the fray.
But here, I read an article which is quite biased, emotional, attacking a person - about his failure as a singer... really?! - Instead of discussing the real question: Is it attractive for a millionaire, who is mobile, who has the choice of residence, and who wants the best education for their children, to settle in Quebec?" Link{fr}

(credit: Lord Dorchester, Mosnean) 

Bill 14 and "Charter of Secularism" delayed until the Fall

The Parti Quebecois announced that the clause by clause study of Bill 14 will be delayed until after the summer recess due to the Liberal party's obstructionism.

"With Bill 14, meant to bolster Quebec’s Charter of the French language, bogged down by what Immigration and Cultural Communities Minister Diane De Courcy termed on Wednesday a “Liberal filibuster,” the Parti Québécois government has postponed until the fall its policy paper for a Charter of secularism."  LINK

In the meantime;

"The Parti Québécois government says it plans to compel federally regulated companies to comply with Quebec's French Language Charter, by withholding public contracts from any business or agency that doesn't.  Link

Bits'n pieces

On average, Quebecers work, 117 hours less per year than Ontarians.
That's almost three weeks! Link{fr}

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Henry Aubin  is not  one of my favourite writers, but here contributes an interesting piece about how because Ottawa is paying for the replacement for the Champlain Bridge, Quebec is asking for an expensive architectural gem.
 Culture of entitlement crosses bridge

Another good piece on the decline of Montreal;
Montreal might be a hotbed of creativity, but its (sic) also a hotbed of municipal decline

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For those outside Quebec who believe that all Quebecers suffer from entitlement disease, here is a great piece by  blogger Gilles Guénette in Quebecois Libre, obviously in French.

L'aide sociale et l'assurance-emploi ne sont pas des modes de vie 

Anyone interested in translating?

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"The French language police (France-.ed) have long been fighting an uphill battle to stem the invasion of English words into the language of Moliere. But with "stop", "weekend", "cool" and many, many others words now at home in the Gallic language it appears the French resistance has all been in vain. Nevertheless a team of people at the Minister of Culture in Paris are keeping up the fight. They are charged with finding French alternatives to any new English word of phrase that rears its head in French." Link

Here are the top offenders:
Binge-drinking

Beach

E-book

Drop-out

Cloud Computing

Silver Economy

Crowd Funding

Exit tax

Hashtag

Class action

Carbon offsetting, Carbon Compensation, Carbon neutrality

"street basketball", "street football"

 ***************

Parlez Anglais? French on course to do just that
"Compounding the unease of the French elite is their awareness that French is now only the eighth most spoken language in the world whereas English is second, behind Chinese. And last week the French language seemed to have conceded a rather painful defeat to English. The French higher education minister Genevieve Fioraso tabled a draft law which would allow some scientific courses at French universities to be taught in English. Sacre Bleu. Shock Horror." Link

 ***************

Bilingualism rate drops for first time since Pierre Trudeau
"Driven in part by the arrival of thousands of French-eschewing immigrants, Canadian rates of French-English bilingualism have dropped for the first time since the election of prime minister Pierre Trudeau, according to a Statistics Canada report released Tuesday." Link

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Obituary- Morton Brownstein, a Great Montrealer 
Morton Brownstein, a visionary retailer who transformed Browns Shoe Shops from a small family business into a national chain that pioneered sales of designer shoes, has been called “a national treasure” for his dedication to building a better Canada.....
..... His most cherished cause was the Jewish General Hospital, of which he became president of the board in 1988. A fundraiser extraordinaire, in 1984, he raised $20 million for the emergency department, which is now named after him and Bernice.
In 1998, he raised $50 million for the hospital and topped that in 2003 by raising $200 million....
....In 1988, Brownstein was among five merchants who won a Supreme Court challenge to provisions of Quebec’s French-language charter banning English from public signs. But the victory left a bitter taste, since then-premier Robert Bourassa invoked the notwithstanding clause to overturn the ruling.
“It’s neither exhilarating nor satisfying,” Brownstein said on learning the verdict, adding that he never would have undertaken the challenge if he had known how little support his efforts would get from Quebec’s business leaders.
In 1989, he became one of the most prominent backers of the anglophone-rights Equality Party. “They gave me respectability,” he said. “They’ve been telling the legislature and people of Quebec that we should be treated as equals in the province — they’re defending that and no one else is,” he said. Read more

What can I say?

Mile End and Gary Carter! ......YES!!!!

Montreal bus driver, probably in trouble!!!

And here's something to remind those of you who are burning the candle at both ends to make time for yourself and your family this summer;

Have a great weekend

Bonne fin de semaine!

PQ Report Card a Sad Indictment of Dismal Failure...Part Two

When the PQ was first elected I wrote a piece describing the utter lack of potential cabinet talent within the PQ ranks and the unmitigated disaster that awaited us as a bunch of incompetent fools were handed the reins of power.  Read: Pauline Steers a PQ Ship of Fools
I think it's fair to say that time has borne me out and that this opinion wasn't just a partisan shot.

While I generally disdain all pequists, past and present, I  am the first to say that many PQ governments of the past were made up of men and women with a certain level of competence, responsibility and yes, honour, all of which is sadly lacking in Pauline's motley crew.

Let me provide PART TWO of a report card on the ministers of this government, cognizant of the fact that I am not  a fan, something like a Montreal Canadiens fan rating the Boston Bruins, player by player.

Bernard Drainville- I

Minister of Democratic Institutions and Citizen Participation
Just reading the convoluted ministerial title tells me that the job has been created artificially to fill a need, like the president of a large corporation naming his son or daughter to a job with a fancy title and no responsibility.
Bernard Drainville has been rewarded for his disloyalty to Pauline Marois with a job that can best be described as an accident waiting to happen.
 In the best tradition of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer, Pauline has sent poor Bernard on a fool's errand, handing him the unenviable task of shepherding the secular ‘Charter of Quebec Values,’a potential time bomb where in the case of an explosion, it will be poor Bernard who gets his brains splattered.

Let's go back a bit to the dark days of the PQ last year, where it looked likely that Pauline's leadership would not survive as the party was down in the dumps in the polls.
Many in the PQ were panicked and some were making overt and covert runs at Pauline's top job.
But we all know how it ended, Marois dispatching her arch rival Gilles Duceppe with a cleverly planted revelation that he probably abused his position in Ottawa as head of the Bloc Quebecois, by paying partisan salaries out of his office budget.
But Drainville also took a shot at the leadership, more discretely and respectfully.

"Considered a likely contender in any future PQ leadership race, Drainville even gave a round of interviews in which he took thinly disguised jabs at his leader.
“If the Parti Quebecois doesn’t bring itself closer to the people we won’t get through this,” he said, referring to the party’s low polling numbers at the time." Link

And so when Pauline survived, he wasn't sent to Siberia, but was definitely put on the Pauline's shit bad boy list.
Now during the leadership crisis, Drainville published what has to be the most nonsensical set of ideas which he claimed would reinvigorate Quebec democracy.
Some of Drainville's proposals were clearly incompatible with our Parliamentary system, including the proposal of electing the Premier directly as in the United Staes.
Even more bizarre was his proposal that citizens would be able to force Parliament to act in accordance to the edicts of a referendum initiated by citizens themselves.

"One political scholar expressed bafflement that the PQ would ever have considered the idea.
"Citizen-initiated referendums are not very compatible with a British-inspired parliamentary system," said Antonin-Xavier Fournier, a professor of politics at CEGEP de Sherbrooke.
"Citizens themselves can't oblige Parliament and the Crown to adopt a law. It's what we call 'the supremacy of Parliament.' "
This, Fournier said, is hardly top-secret information.
"This is constitutional law 101," he said." Link

And so Drainville, got what he wanted or more to the point, what he deserved, the impossible job of re-inventing Quebec's democracy, suckered along by Marois, just as before when she nixed the consultative referendum which was duly passed at the party congress.

Like the proverbial fool, Drainville is rushing in where angels fear to tread and going full speed ahead with the Charter of Quebec Values, a law designed to discriminate against minority religions, all in the name of collectivity.

I won't get into the juicy subject here, but will offer just one observation.
One of the precepts of the proposed law is the banning of religious regalia in public service, a direct attack on Muslim women who wear a headscarf to work.
The law  applies to all, but let's face reality, there aren't a lot of Sikhs, Raëlins, or Hasids working at the license bureau.
Come to think of it, I renewed my permit a couple of weeks ago and was served by a nice young lady wearing a headscarf.
Was I offended?....what do you think?
If the law goes through, will this young lady have to decide between her faith and her job?

Dranville has already started his tap dance around the issue of Christianity in public, telling reporters that the celebration of Christmas and Easter are 'civic' holidays and therefore exempt from the law and that the Crucifix in legislative bodies is also exempt because it is a 'patrimonial icon.' ...Arggghh!!

Last week he complained that a parking exemption, afforded to the Jewish community (for the last thirty years) for one of their holidays was something he opposed as an unreasonable accommodation.
When Lise Ravary, a columnist at the Journal de Montreal pointed out that there is a parking exemption in Longueuil  for Good Friday, Easter, and Christmas, Drainville remained silent.

If you are wondering what my mark of "I" means, let me explain.

Drainville has cabinet position that is evil and destructive.
To do a good job would be bad for the province and to do a bad job would be good for the province.
Drainville is bad at his job and therefore good! er.....I hope you follow the logic...

It is akin to being good or bad at running the Ministry of Silly Walks....Hmmmm!

Therefore I have decided to bestow the unique mark of "I" for "Idiot"

Réjean Hébert- D

Health Minster
The photo of the Health Minister is just a reminder of his political and social affiliation.

With apologies to Philippe Couillard ( and my old pediatrician Dr. Victor Goldbloom,) I'm always suspicious of doctors turned politicians. It is hard to understand why they willingly give up ten years of medical training for a job that pays considerably less

When Réjean Hébert came on board as health minister, you'd think his first order of business would be to address the 20 hours plus waiting period that is the norm in Quebec emergency rooms.

Imagine requiring stitches for a nasty cut  and being  told that not only would you have to wait almost a full day before seeing a doctor, but you couldn't choose to pay for the service privately because it is some horrific violation of the Health Act.
The bizarre fact is that a Montrealer can drive to a Plattsburgh walk-in clinic, be stitched and home in about three hours! 

Nope, all this is of little import to the good minister,  instead Hébert decided to tackle the important file of the Lachine hospital which is affiliated with the MUHC, the English umbrella organization for health services in Montreal.
After being pushed hard by language militants to change the hospital's affiliation to French, the minister announced that the hospital would henceforth be run by a francophone oversight organization prompting a groundswell of resistance.
After a spirited campaign that highlighted the folly of such a move, supported by anglophones and francophones frightened at the potential deterioration of service, the minister caved.

"Hébert told reporters at a news conference that maintaining the hospital’s affiliation with the MUHC “seems to be the best solution in terms of achieving the goals of this hospital.”
That’s a far cry from what Hébert said in January when he said the MUCH would never make Lachine a priority and announced it would be managed by the CSSS de Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle.
But public outcry forced Hébert’s hand. The Save Our Lachine Hospital committee formed six years ago, returned to action, collecting thousands of names on a petition insisting the hospital remain affiliated with the MUHC.
“It was a big concern, ” said hospital employee Evelyn Van Eyken, “You would lose that connection with the larger hospitals, you would lose the expertise of the larger hospitals.”
Many worried that under the management of the CSSS, the hospital’s quality of care would deteriorate." Link

Hebert is a separatist idealogue, an academic ill-suited to real world  problems. He remains part of the coterie of cabinet ministers who put independence and language before the general well-being of the province.
Shame on him...

By the way, since being shamed by the Lachine affair, the minister, like Nicolas Marceau has kept his head down, a good idea considering..

Nicole Léger- F

Minister of Families

You'd think that the Ministry of Families would be a portfolio as uncontroversial as they come.

But not in a PQ government, where the politics of language and socialism are applied.

First let us acknowledge the standard about-face that seems to dog just about every cabinet appointment, wherein a minister announces a new intuitive, policy or program and is promptly forced to do an embarrassing about-face because of public outrage.

On October 17, 2012;

"Bill 101 is going to be changed," Léger said in an interview. "I will have plenty of support as family minister to make sure it also extends to daycares....
Immigrants to Quebec who want to send their children to daycare will soon have to look into finding a French-language centre, the government said Wednesday, outlining the latest plank in its plan to overhaul the province's language laws. Link

and then October 18, 2012;....

"Family Minister Nicole Léger, in an interview with The Canadian Press, said she wanted changes to the language law known as Bill 101 to include daycare centres, suggesting that the provisions of the law that restrict access to the English-language school system should also apply to daycare services. On Thursday, Ms. De Courcy said that would not happen." Link

Hmmm......

But all this doesn't compare to the fiasco in daycare file where Leger has entered into a firestorm in implementing the PQ platform to add some 32,000 $7-a-day spots.

She announced that she would be creating these new spots by expanding the public daycare system instead of giving the private daycare system a chance to fill the 10,000 vacancies that presently exist.

Imagine building new daycare centres at a cost of about $2.5 million each, when places are going begging in the private system, just because they must charge full pop.
By just turning over the subsides to the private system, the province would save millions and millions.
But the PQ is beholding to the unions and so it's anti-business policy is put before sane financial management.

“Why give 85% of places to CPEs when they cost more to society,” argued daycare owner Bambina Gagliaidi. “You’re having a problem with finances and you still want to spend more in CPEs when they cost more to taxpayers. It’s  nonsense.”  Link

And to add fuel to the fire, the Minister demanded that those private daycares that do have subsidies, kick back some $15 million dollars to the government because they run too efficiently and make too much profit.
These for-profit daycares are not unionized and of course work hard to keep costs down, as any business. With the same subsidy per child that the public daycare system needs to operate, the private daycare can generate up to $100,000 in profit per centre.
That's too much for the minister and so she wants a piece of these profits by way of reducing the subsidy.
This led to the outraged private daycares to hold a 'strike' for one day, enraging the Minister who promised to fine each participating daycare about $3,000 for each day closed.
Her lightening reaction to the 'strike' had opposition politicians furious.

Liberal leader Philippe Couillard argued the PQ is in no position to try to muzzle protesters.
“I would like to know by which logic the sound of certain pots and the colour of certain squares appear more sympathetic to the government than others, given the fact they participated themselves when the squares were red and they banged the pots, so how come these pots and these squares are not treated the same way,” said Couillard. Link

To be fair to Nicole Léger, this initiative is not hers, but represent decisions made at cabinet.
She is in many respects just a mouthpiece, doing the bidding of the government.
After her monumental gaffe and humiliation over French in daycares and the subsequent backpedal, she too has learned a lesson and now has become a dopey puppet to ventriloquist Pauline Marois .


Stéphane Bergeron- B
Minister of Public Security

I have to say, I think Stéphane Bergeron is the second best minister in the Marois cabinet.
He hasn't done anything amazing, but on the other hand he hasn't made any gaffes or about-faces, quite an achievement in this cabinet!

His first order of business was to purge the Sureté de Quebec of its top brass as payback for the botched security detail that led to Pauline Marois to be placed in harm's way of an assassin.
The video of her Keystone Cops handlers dragging her one way, only to reverse direction is classic among law enforcement agencies around the world and serves as a textbook case of what not to do. Video

The Minister was showing the Sureté who was boss and his frontal attack on the national police demonstrates clearly that there were no skeletons in his closet.
The Sureté is famous for keeping compromising 'files' on politicians and VIPs, in the finest tradition of J. Edgar Hoover!

The Public Security minister is basking in the glow of the Charbonneau Commission which is a big hit with the public and although it was Premier Charest that launched the inquiry, it is the present government and Stéphane Bergeron who are getting the credit for the cleanup.

At any rate, no news is good news and Bergeron carries himself rather well, projecting a serious and

confident attitude.
He has largely stayed out of the political fray but is responsible for calling an inquiry into last year's student protest, no doubt meant to humiliate the Liberals.
With the police brotherhood and the Liberal party already announcing that they will not participate, and the students complaining about the format, it looks like a white elephant in the making, but all this remains to be seen. Link

Bertrand St-Arnaud- B+
Minister of Public of Justice

Like the Public Security Minister Bertrand St-Arnaud has kept his nose clean and out of the limelight.
No gaffes, no humiliating about-faces and certainly not the appearance of incompetence demonstrated by so many of his cabinet colleagues.

In fact St-Arnaud was praised by federalists for his support of a gathering in Quebec City of interested parties concerning the promotion of victim's rights. Link{fr}

Mr. St-Arnaud also went on record as saying he wants to increase jail sentences for repeat drunk drivers who seem to offend over and over again.

"St-Arnaud says he wants to legislate a one-year jail term for a fourth infraction, and two years for a fifth infraction.

St-Arnaud says the Quebec and Alberta governments also want to pressure the federal government to modify the criminal code."  Link

Both these initiatives cross political lines and enjoy wide support.

One thing that stands out is what he did not do, that is cave in to union demands to reverse the Charest governments Bill-30, that removed the construction union's right to place workers on job sites.
The unions are so angry with the PQ for refusing to reverse the law, that they are actually suing the government over the issue and have named the justice minister in the lawsuit. Link{fr}

And finally let us remember that it was Bertrand St-Arnaud who took his own leader to task after Pauline Marois made an injudicious comment after some accusations implicating the PQ were made at the Charbonneau Commission.
Marois told reporters that the Commissioner, France Charbonneau 'needed to proceed with caution' which probably wasn't meant as a threat, but did sound like one.
The justice minister felt compelled to respond, saying;

"She (Charboneau) is a master of the witnesses called, she is master as to what approach she uses and I, as Minister of Justice will not comment on the evidence or how the Charbonneau  Commission operates" Link{fr}

 Well said!

And so it seems that I haven't finished with the cabinet review and so will offer another installment in the near future.

SPECIAL NOTE:
Readers, as the summer approaches and the political actions subsides, I'll be taking it a bit easier, hopefully enjoying the pool with family and friends (AND MOST IMPORTANTLY----GRANDCHILDREN!)
And so I'll be posting just twice a week, on Monday and Thursday, but promise to bring some interesting (I hope) insights and perhaps chart a bit of a different course.

Many people write to me and complain that I do a lot of harping without ever proposing solutions.
Fair criticism.
I'm going to try to remain positive as I hope you all will. At least for the summer.

Whether you agree with me, are against my ideas or are indifferent, there is a common bond that we all share, that is the preciousness of summer, something that Canadians across this country, regardless of language, political persuasion, race or religion hold dear.

On Thursday I'll offer an extended post about entitlement, that is, the entitlement of politicians and a view as to what makes politicians (of all stripes) betray our trust.

I'm already working on it and without tooting my horn, believe that you will find it interesting in a non-partisan sort of way.
Until then!