Hard Lessons From the Federal Election For Quebec Politicians

BAD NEWS                        BAD NEWS              GOOD NEWS

If anything is clear from the vote last week that propelled a bunch of Quebec Ndp nobodies into Parliament, is that Quebeckers vote with their hearts and not particularly with their brains.

How else can one explain, voting for candidates who don't speak French, don't campaign or put up posters and never set foot in the riding they are running in. Call it revenge of the poteaus.

I'm not denigrating the quality of these candidates, in fact, they probably represent the best element of the NDP party which was hitherto stacked with nutbars, fantasists and conspiracy theorists.

It's not the first time that an emotional wave carried  Quebec voters off to an unlikely destination. It happened, back in 1995 when a wildfire grew under Lucien Bouchard's impassioned stewardship of the YES side in the referendum campaign where within a matter of weeks public opinion shifted so rapidly, that Quebec almost took itself out of Canada. It happened again in 2007, when a temporary fit of family values brought the ADQ to a short-lived term as the official opposition with over 31% of the popular vote and 41 seats in the National Assembly.

While pundits try to deconstruct the deep reasoning behind what happened in last week's federal election, I am reminded of the term 'Monday morning quarterback.'

Neither the pollsters or the experts had a clue as to what was to happen before the election, so being an expert afterwards is a bit galling.

I'm reminded of the American pundit Peter Schiff who was just about the only expert in America who predicted the recession and the meltdown in the housing market.  In a compiled video, expert after expert mocked Mr. Shiff's predictions, which actually turned out to be bang on.

Ben Stein-At least he can act- CLICK

If you want to laugh, watch the ten-minute video, that will help destroy any notion that you may harbour that 'expert opinion' actually exists when it comes to predicting the future.  

 Watch the Video- YouTube

I'm particularly fond of the Ben Stein segment, where the economist /actor gave the worst advice possible, advice that would bankrupt any investor taking it. You'd think he'd slink away and never show his face again, but not so. He's back on television giving more advice today.

And so today experts like these, who were clueless before the  election, are explaining to us now, the reasons for the Liberal meltdown, the Ndp resurgence and the collapse of the Bloc Quebecois. Pardon my cynicism!


I'm certainly not going to explain why Quebeckers and Canadians voted the way they did, but will offer some simple basic conclusions we can easily draw after the fact.

Lesson Number One - Voters loyalty is a thing of the past.
There was a time when how you voted stemmed from familial tradition. For most, it was normal to vote the same way over and over again, for the same party, sometimes over a whole lifetime. That has changed not only in Quebec but in Canada as well. It appears that no party can take the vote of any particular group for granted. In Quebec the Bloc was beneficiary of this new bitter realty and in Ontario the Liberals were drubbed in 'ethnic' ridings that they considered their traditional fiefdoms.

Lesson Number Two - Voters do hold grudges.
They used to say that six months is a lifetime in politics and that voters have short attention spans and particularly bad memories. Quebeckers have proven that axiom wrong by refusing to let the Liberals out of Purgatory over the sponsorship scandal that occurred almost seven years ago.
In the rest of Canada, there's little doubt that the electors punished the Liberals, whom they blame as  instigators of the ill-advised coalition that almost brought separatists into the government.

Lesson Number Three - You can no longer buy votes with promises.
A bridge here, a new program there, more tax deductions for this or that, it doesn't drive voters any more. Whether voters are cynical or disbelieving, or perhaps finally cottoning to the fact that promises cost money, they no longer necessarily vote for politicians who promise the Moon.
It appears that voters in this election, cast their ballot based on ideology. The only election issue that  seemed to matter was the voter's attitude towards conservative governance versus social democracy. Even in Quebec, after the Bloc and sovereignty were rejected as an election issue, the choice boiled down to left versus right.

If these three simple conclusions are true, they will have a devastating impact in the next Quebec provincial election, even if it is over two years away.
For Jean Charest and Pauline Marois, it bodes poorly for both their political futures.

Mr. Charest cannot count on voters forgetting his past misdeeds, too numerous to enumerate. If six months is indeed considered a lifetime in politics, not even a cat's nine lives would suffice to assuage Quebeckers anger at Mr. Charest for perceived betrayals.
The Liberal brand has become toxic and like a polluted dump site it will take more than a few years to rehabilitate the brand. 
Much as I consider Mr. Charest a personal friend and it pains me to say so, reality is reality.

But Madame Marois and the PQ are no longer the natural alternative.  She is roundly unpopular  and the PQ's promise to militate aggressively for sovereignty is a turnoff for most who don't want to go down a losing road again.

Quebec voters have shown (by voting for the Ndp federally) that they will not choose between the lessor of two bad choices and Door Number 3, Francois Legault is looking better and better each day.

If he plays his cards right, he'll be the next Premier of Quebec.

Harper Majority Signals Quebec's Ultimate Political Decline

For Quebec - It's door Number 3, another booby prize.

The election of a large group of Ndp members from Quebec has set off a firestorm of debate in the province centering around the question of whether the NDP can really represent Quebec's best interests in Ottawa.
Of course on the sovereignist side it's argued that the Ndp can never represent the province because as a federalist party they will always put Canada first. That coupled with the fact that they are largely inexperienced and in some cases can't even speak French make them unlikely to succeed.
On the other side of the argument are those who say that twenty years of Bloc representation hasn't brought Quebec anything signifigant and that a change can't do any harm.

Lost in the polemic, is the debaters' failure to understand or see, that it matters little if the NDP is qualified or not, the question is moot.

In our Parliamentary system of government, a majority government, means that the opposition has effectively no role to play, other than to bitch and moan. As long as Quebec Parliamentarians sit on the wrong side of the aisle, facing a government that can pass legislation at will, it matters not a whit whether they are Blocists or Dippers.

And so, debating whether the NDP will be more effective than the Bloc is an exercise in futility, akin to arguing which store is better to shop in, when you have no money to spend!

The real story of the election, the Harper majority, is being roundly ignored and like an ostrich burying its head in the sand in the face of danger, Quebeckers seem to be in denial, which is appropriately the first stage of grief.

While Mr. Layton, Mr. Mulcair and their troupe of 'little dippers' from Quebec are the talk of the town, the foreboding reality of the political downfall of the province remains unexamined.

The pollsters and the experts assured us in the later half of the campaign that the chance of a Conservative majority had died on the vine. The conventional wisdom that no majority could be attained without some Quebec support was held so strongly, that even those in Harper's own party believed it to be true and so were resigned to another minority government.

After two unsuccessful tries in coddling Quebec without reward, Harper's strategy shifted to winning Ontario and it's ethnically diverse Toronto area ridings.
Why the Liberal collapse happened is a subject long to be debated, but coupled with the Ndp resurgence, it led to unprecedented majority Conservative government, bereft of Quebec representation.

The political Earth had moved.

When the stark reality of the disaster that Quebec faces, finally unfolds, it will not be a pretty picture. Quebec will have reduced representation in the Conservative caucus and even less influence in the Cabinet.
It may open the door to Maxime Bernier to make a return in a big way, but he's even more conservative and libertarian than Harper and has even spoken against Bill 101!

Of course Mr. Harper will be very Prime Ministerial and govern for the benefit of the whole country, but what is best for Canada in Harper's eye is far from what is held in Quebec.

No doubt his first legislative foray (after passing the budget that was previously rejected) will be to  pass legislation that he was unable to muster support for in his previous minority government.
So look for him to present a bill to add thirty seats to Parliament, all outside the province of Quebec. This re-jigging of the Parliamentary seat allocation will redress the shifting demographic reality of a changing Canada, to the determent of Quebec. Harper had previously abandoned the proposal in the face of fierce lobbying by Quebec cabinet ministers, but given the irrelevancy of Quebec's political weight, it's full speed ahead.
No doubt he will then pass legislation to eliminate the government per vote subsidy to political parties. This act will effectively cut off the major funding of the Bloc Quebecois and represents the coup de grace for the separatist presence in Ottawa.

In the waning months of the last minority government, Harper had already signalled that he had lost patience and was no longer ready to pander to Quebec. His decision to back Newfoundland's project to bypass Quebec to move power to the USA brought a furious reaction in Quebec City, criticism that Harper shrugged off rather nonchalantly.

It is likely that Quebec under a Conservative majority will treated fairly, but will no longer have status as a coddled and doted upon favourite child.

Those days are gone.

Quebec is going to have to come up with a new strategy. Without enough votes for sovereignty the province is stuck in Canada with little power in Ottawa, a tragic and sad comeuppance.

Will Quebec assess the new situation honestly and make the best of a bad lot?

If recent history is to be considered, voters will once more, make the wrong decision.

French versus English - Volume 26

Quebec Summer Festival continues to offer English acts

Much to the chagrin of French language militants who complain that English artists shouldn't be part of the summer music festival, organizers have once again thumbed their nose at extremists.
Elton John is about to become the next musical superstar to strut his stuff on the Plains of Abraham.
The 64-year-old John will appear at the Quebec City landmark July 9, as part of the city's annual summer festival.
The Rocket Man's show comes three years after Paul McCartney and Céline Dion gave separate shows on the Plains to commemorate the 400th anniversary of the founding of Quebec City.
Mettalica and John Fogarty will also be performing at the festival.
McCartney's appearance riled some Quebec nationalists, who said a Brit shouldn't be part of the city's festivities.
The weekend of John's show promises to be a huge one for music fans in Quebec. Irish rockers U2 will be playing at the Montreal Hippodrome on both July 8 and 9. LINK

For Anglos from all over Canada and the United States, the Quebec Summer Festival is a marvelous event for tourists. Quebec remains an open and friendly place to visit, with locals hospitable and English-friendly. It may also be the safest big city in North America. Accommodation prices are reasonable and the shows are the best entertainment value on the continent! Here's a LINK to the Festival's English website.

Election brings unilingual MPs's 

Tyrone Benskin

The NDP wave in Monday's election, which saw a slew of unheralded neophytes elected, has resulted in the perverse situation where some of the newly-minted MPS don't speak the language of the majority of the citizens in the riding. The most bizarre case is that of Ruth Ellen Brosseau who was elected in the very French-speaking riding of Berthier-Maskinongé, where you can count the Anglo residents on the fingers of one hand. The Hull native doesn't speak a word of French and has never set foot in the riding, even during the election campaign! She spent her time during the campaign vacationing in Las Vegas and chilling at home in Hull Yikes!
Musician Tyrone Benskin who won the mixed anglo/French riding of Jeanne-Le Ber in Montreal is also francais-challenged, but at least was very well-spoken in the English interviews that he did give after the election, contrary to the situation with the other surprise Ndp winners.
In the Anglo bastion of Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, Isabelle Morin a unilingual  teacher speaks no English. Ms. Morin told reporters that Parliament would have to wait for her to finish the school year, as she couldn't see herself abandoning her students mid-term!
In all five, young graduates of McGill university are newly-elected in the Ndp wave, all represent French ridings and actually bring up significantly the amount of Quebec Anglos and English-speaking Ethnics in Parliament.

Quebec student org. opposes Bill 101 in cegep

A federation representing more than 60,000 CEGEP students has decided not to support the proposed extension of the educational provisions of Quebec’s language law into the province’s colleges.
After a lengthy debate during a convention in Lac St. Jean on Sunday, no consensus could be reached by the delegates representing the 23 student associations included in the Fédération étudiante collégiale du Québec.
Instead, said FECQ president Léo Bureau-Blouin, the federation would push for other means to promote the use of French, particularly in Montreal. LINK

French music on radio in trouble

Le Mouvement Montréal français is organizing a demonstration to demand that Québec radio stations play French music during rush hour. Radio stations have been getting around CRTC quotas that force them to play the less popular French music by scheduling the French music in the middle of the night when nobody is listening, thus fulfilling their obligations.

Meanwhile in France, radio broadcasters struggle to fill language quotas as well.

"French radio stations are struggling to fulfill a quota that demands 40% of songs played be French-language titles...Increasingly French singers have switched to singing in English in recent years due to ease of export and the languages perceived better-suitability for pop music – between 2003 and now the number of French-language album releases dropped from 718 to 158. NRJ radio group’s Maryam Salehi asked: “How can you ask radio broadcasters to respect quotas if producers dry up the source?" LINK

Separatists Demand that McGill Professors speak French

A Montreal daily newspaper La Presse, is making a big deal over a job posting for a professorship in the Agriculture department at McGill University because a knowledge of French wasn't listed as a job requirement.

Contacted about the outrage, Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste's president, blowhard Mario Beaulieu was predictably enraged. 

 "It's unacceptable. I believe that French must be mentioned in the job posting. How will these experts do studies in a milieu where they don't speak the language. LINK{FR}

Second Cup the target of language militants- again

Once again the Canadian coffee chain is under attack for committing a horrendous linguistic faux-pas- Posting a sign in its store that uses both English and French text in equal size. Gasp!....
According to the Journal de Montreal, which actually made the story a feature, occupying two-thirds of a page, many customers complained to the Office de la langue Francais who promised to 'investigate' Link

French Test too hard, so future teachers cheat, again.

"Ever since 2009, prospective teachers have been required to pass a written French certification test to obtain their teaching certificate, a measure implemented by the Ministry of Education to improve literacy of French among new teachers.
Considering the exam too difficult, students first began to exchange answers on a Facebook page last year. Now a website www.tecfee.com  was created by a "support group" where there are several questions from the tests of February and March  posted......
The website which opened in September, receives up to 2,500 visitors a month, and receives hits from all over Quebec."
"This group was created because we believe that our generation has not received the proper tools in the transition to high school and college. Despite the 'reform' and the suggestions of the Parent Commission, we were left to ourselves. Not wanting to blame the previous generation, this group mobilized to improve our culture and our language , "reads the homepage of the site. LINK{FR}

Calgary Board of Education to  dump French

"A national group says it's appalled by the decision from the Calgary Board of Education to slash the mandatory core French program.
Earlier this week, the CBE voted to nix the program in grades 4 through 9 as of the 2011-2012 school year.
The executive director of the Alberta Branch of Canadian Parents for French calls the CBE's decision a "giant step backwards" for French second language education in our province." LINK

English cegeps overflow again

It looks like there won't be enough place in Montreal's English cegeps again this year, as demand is outstripping capacity once more. Last year many qualified students were turned away.
Subsequently entrance requirements have been raised to the point that some students with 85% averages are are being refused entry into certain popular programs, like science.

Greeks urged boycott of Liberal party in election

"The Quebec Hellenic Congress was on the defensive this weekend after counselling Greek voters in a Montreal-area riding not to vote for the Liberal party because its candidate is not of Greek origin. In a letter sent out to its members last weekend, the Congress stated that voters in Laval-les Îles should reconsider their support for Michael Ignatieff 's party because of "the arbitrary decision to nominate a candidate of non-Greek origin, this despite the fact that in this riding there are 30,000 voters of Greek origin who regularly vote for the Liberal party." LINK

Liberal Candidate -  Karine Joizi

 Reacting to this news, a Liberal party organizer,  Fabrice Rivault, offered this jewel;"Why not send these fascists back to Greece? Eeeks!

What's more disturbing is that the outgoing MP, who chose not to run, wasn't Greek either. Is the Hellenique Congress' objection perhaps based on the fact that the new Liberal candidate is a Black francophone Haitian? 

Just asking....

By the way, the outrage in the French press over the audacity of the Greek lobby group to push for a Greek candidate is a bit hypocritical. Regularly, we hear that the Montreal Canadiens need to hire more Francophones and you'll recall that Premier Charest was berated quite openly for hiring an Anglo to run the Caisse du Depot. So really, what is the difference?

Incidentally,  the Bloc candidate, Mohamedali Jetha, probably didn't endear himself to the Greek or the many other Anglo voters in the riding by making  this statement;

"The defence of the French language remains a priority, " said the multi-lingual, recalling that Laval has become "strongly anglicized" between 1996 and 2006.

Did the boycott work?

Most likely it did, with the Ndp candidate winning with a crushing 48% of the vote!

Sun news bashes Quebec

In an article that reeked of schadenfreude, Toronto sun columnist Andrew McIntosh, reveled in the fact that leaked cables obtained through Wikileaks painted Montreal and Quebec in a less than favourable light.  See Leaked cables paint unflattering portrait of Montreal

Another example

In his zeal to pan Montreal,  Mr. McIntosh tells us that;

"Montreal has literally become a "Bangkok of the West,"  
Hmmm...Perhaps Daniel R., a regular reader who drops me a line every now and then about my typos and improper use of English, can advise Mr. McIntosh on the proper use of the term 'literal', or otherwise read this for an explanation
I'm not defending Montreal, but the writer's assertion that Montreal is home to "Massive telemarketing fraud." should in fairness have included this paragraph, ALSO found in those leaked cable.

 "Montreal's relatively cheap labor and energy costs combined with strict privacy laws and lax telemarketing regulations have made it an attractive location for contact centers of all kinds, and the city now finds itself second only to Toronto for the dubious  title of "telemarketing scam capital of North America."  Link

Toronto, Heal Hyself!! 

Further reading ; French versus English -Volume 25

Osama Bin Laden's Quebec Apologists

First it was Uncle Tom Mulcair telling the CBC that he didn't believe that the US had pictures of a dead Osama Bin Laden and then he said that he it didn't matter even if they did have picture, 'it wouldn't prove very much." Watch the video of a stunned reporter interviewing another NDP conspiracy theorist.
1. Link to the CBC story and
2. Click on the video
3. Laugh at the idiot who will be the deputy opposition leader.

Not an auspicious start for the NDP's number two. 
By the way, readers, if you'd like to meet another NDP idiot truther, watch recently re-elected NDP hero, Libby Davies, present a petition to Parliament  asserting that the US government was responsible for 9-11. LINK

Any ways, moving along......

While we'd expect the usual gang of rogue nations and certain Christian/Jew-hating imams to denounce the death of the world's number one terrorist, it is surprising how little support has actually been publicly offered.

Of course first on the list of Osama supporters is the Palestinian Hamas government in Gaza, whose leader Ismail Haniyeh,  commented:
"We condemn the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior. We regard this as a continuation of the American policy based on oppression and the shedding of Muslim and Arab blood." Link

Readers might recall that when the Twin Towers fell on 9/11, Gaza broke out in spontaneous exuberant demonstrations of support for the terrorists and joyful celebration of the murder of the 3000 plus victims. Watch Palestinians celebrate on YouTube
But no matter, in Quebec we love Palestinians and hate Israelis.

Even Iran, believe it or not, has expressed satisfaction at the death of Osama. Around the world, country after country, commentator after commentator has expressed loud support for the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

If you scour the Internet, it's hard to find a sympathetic word for Osama outside radical fundamentalist  Islamic organizations.

Except in Quebec, where the nutters come out on vigile.net.

While the world rejoices in Osama's death our very own Richard LeHir decries the fact that he was gunned down.

"Indeed, from the time when American intelligence knew where bin Laden was hiding, nothing prevented them from seizing his person and then bring him to justice, and the fact that they chose, on the order of the President of the United States, to liquidate it altogether on the field, leaves the worst suspicions.Yet in his very brief statement, Obama did not even attempt to argue that bin Laden had been killed because it had not been possible to capture him alive.Instead, he assumed full responsibility for his order to assassinate bin Laden, as if it were the most natural thing and most legitimate of the world....This justice, it is straight out of a bad western theme, and it certainly does not help improve the U.S. image worldwide." Link

Mr. LeHir is badly out of touch if he thinks that the world is upset.  Really, out of touch...

From a Lebanese newspaper

Marius Morin on vigil.net tells that;

"Bin Laden is dead, the crowd and the media are cheering. A victory over terrorism. This is all based on lies. According to several proofs, bin Laden died December 13, 2001, murdered by the Pakistani services....
....While the enemy remains alive, all wars, military strikes, invasions, killings, torture Guantanamins are allowed, and criminals who are the authors are covered: Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, McChrystal, Obama, Hilary Clinton, etc.. Without this lie, (that Osama is alive) well orchestrated and planned, all these people would be accused of war crimes against humanity and would be behind bars." LINK{FR} (read it, it's a jewel)

In decrying the fact that the world is happy with Ben Laden's death, François Munyabagisha on vigile.net warns us not to celebrate.

"2 000 years ago, the spiritual leader of Christians perished on a wooden cross. People celebrated the end of his cause..... Today his ideology still resists against the winds and the tides." Link 

And so, according to the author, Osama, like Jesus, was just misunderstood and perhaps ahead of his time.

Readers, say it with me.... UghhHHH..................

For Die-Hards, Bloc Collapse as Painful as Referendum Loss

Ever since Monday night, there's been a lot of tears and hand-wringing among committed sovereignists, who watched the painful implosion of a hitherto beloved separatist institution.

Indeed, for separatists, watching the Bloc Quebecois going down to ignominious defeat was probably as painful as watching your favourite boxer being trashed for several rounds before collapsing to the canvas only to suffer the inevitable and humiliating ten-count, followed by the referee's emphatic signal, that the fight is over,
K/O... Kaput!....The fat lady has sung!

It was like referendum night all over again..

Forgive my hyperbolic metaphor, but I'm feeling mighty smug and self-satisfied.

I don't usually take pleasure at someone else's misfortune, but in this case, I daresay that I'll make an exception.
And so, I'll take some time to revel in the Bloc's wipeout as well as time to celebrate a majority government.

A special treat for me is the reaction of the you-know-whos, like Louis Prefontaine who is frothing at the mouth in rage and humiliation. Read Une race de ti-counes{FR}  SWEET!

Some sovereignists are trying to spin the Bloc defeat as something positive for the separatist movement, but let's face it, four years of a majority Conservative government must be as inviting as a trip to the dentist for root canal surgery. Read this drivel,  Un excellent pas vers l’Indépendance{FR}

Truthfully, I didn't care whether it was a Liberal or Conservative majority, as long as the separatists were dealt out of the political equation.

Ironically, with almost 24% of the vote in Quebec, the Bloc won just 5% of the seats.
For twenty years the Bloc has punched above its weight, earning two-thirds of the seats with about forty percent of the vote. Payback's a bitch!

The Bloc's presence in Ottawa underlined the fragility of our Parliamentary democracy. Those Quebeckers who decided to mock Canada by electing secessionists, put an enormous amount of pressure on an institution designed to work with elected officials who want the best for the country, not the worst.

Luckily our democracy withstood the test and ultimately the sovereignists realized that even with a forced minority government, federalists would not give in to separatist demands.

Such was the humiliating rout that the Bloc will likely disappear forever, the experiment to promote sovereignty in Ottawa, a failed gambit.
Without an elected leader and without party status, there is no basis to continue, certainly in consideration of the choice that Quebec voters made.
Looking at four years of roaming the political wilderness, it will be next to impossible to keep the Bloc brand alive. I'm not even sure they can pay off their campaign expenses, considering that the federal subsidy will drop by over 40%. If they're depending on the generosity of Quebeckers to help them pay off the debt, they may as well declare bankruptcy now!

So like every Canadian federalist, I'm glad to see them gone and gone forever.

It would be an error to believe that the rejection of the Bloc is an utter rejection of the sovereignty option. After a 20 year experiment in pushing secession in Ottawa, with zero tangible results, many 'soft' nationalists decided that it was just time to pack in the Ottawa adventure.

But while the Bloc's demise is not fatal to the sovereignty movement, it does deal the secessionists a painful body blow.
It signals that the Parti Quebecois is no shoe-in to replace the faltering provincial Liberals, whose franchise is well-past the 'use-by' date. Like their federal counterparts, the word 'Liberal' is toxic in French Quebec, but it doesn't mean that the Peekists are a natural replacement. Quebeckers have shown that they have no problem with rejecting 'all-of-the-above' and going down a different road.

 Gilles Duceppe's political career is  over, I don't see him enjoying any significant role (other than an elder statesman) in the sovereignty movement after this abject failure. The collapse of the Bloc will be pinned on him by hard-liners and the only  political role left  for him is to wear the goat-horns. His political star is eclipsed.

In spite of a brave face, the Parti Quebecois and Pauline Marois in particular are terrified of what happened election night.
Quebeckers have the told politicians that they were tired of the status quo and likely that will play out in Quebec's next provincial election.

For the Liberal and the Peekists, all I can say is....Be afraid, be very afraid.