Hard Lessons From the Federal Election For Quebec Politicians

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If anything is clear from the vote last week that propelled a bunch of Quebec Ndp nobodies into Parliament, is that Quebeckers vote with their hearts and not particularly with their brains.

How else can one explain, voting for candidates who don't speak French, don't campaign or put up posters and never set foot in the riding they are running in. Call it revenge of the poteaus.

I'm not denigrating the quality of these candidates, in fact, they probably represent the best element of the NDP party which was hitherto stacked with nutbars, fantasists and conspiracy theorists.

It's not the first time that an emotional wave carried  Quebec voters off to an unlikely destination. It happened, back in 1995 when a wildfire grew under Lucien Bouchard's impassioned stewardship of the YES side in the referendum campaign where within a matter of weeks public opinion shifted so rapidly, that Quebec almost took itself out of Canada. It happened again in 2007, when a temporary fit of family values brought the ADQ to a short-lived term as the official opposition with over 31% of the popular vote and 41 seats in the National Assembly.

While pundits try to deconstruct the deep reasoning behind what happened in last week's federal election, I am reminded of the term 'Monday morning quarterback.'

Neither the pollsters or the experts had a clue as to what was to happen before the election, so being an expert afterwards is a bit galling.

I'm reminded of the American pundit Peter Schiff who was just about the only expert in America who predicted the recession and the meltdown in the housing market.  In a compiled video, expert after expert mocked Mr. Shiff's predictions, which actually turned out to be bang on.

Ben Stein-At least he can act- CLICK

If you want to laugh, watch the ten-minute video, that will help destroy any notion that you may harbour that 'expert opinion' actually exists when it comes to predicting the future.  

 Watch the Video- YouTube

I'm particularly fond of the Ben Stein segment, where the economist /actor gave the worst advice possible, advice that would bankrupt any investor taking it. You'd think he'd slink away and never show his face again, but not so. He's back on television giving more advice today.

And so today experts like these, who were clueless before the  election, are explaining to us now, the reasons for the Liberal meltdown, the Ndp resurgence and the collapse of the Bloc Quebecois. Pardon my cynicism!


I'm certainly not going to explain why Quebeckers and Canadians voted the way they did, but will offer some simple basic conclusions we can easily draw after the fact.

Lesson Number One - Voters loyalty is a thing of the past.
There was a time when how you voted stemmed from familial tradition. For most, it was normal to vote the same way over and over again, for the same party, sometimes over a whole lifetime. That has changed not only in Quebec but in Canada as well. It appears that no party can take the vote of any particular group for granted. In Quebec the Bloc was beneficiary of this new bitter realty and in Ontario the Liberals were drubbed in 'ethnic' ridings that they considered their traditional fiefdoms.

Lesson Number Two - Voters do hold grudges.
They used to say that six months is a lifetime in politics and that voters have short attention spans and particularly bad memories. Quebeckers have proven that axiom wrong by refusing to let the Liberals out of Purgatory over the sponsorship scandal that occurred almost seven years ago.
In the rest of Canada, there's little doubt that the electors punished the Liberals, whom they blame as  instigators of the ill-advised coalition that almost brought separatists into the government.

Lesson Number Three - You can no longer buy votes with promises.
A bridge here, a new program there, more tax deductions for this or that, it doesn't drive voters any more. Whether voters are cynical or disbelieving, or perhaps finally cottoning to the fact that promises cost money, they no longer necessarily vote for politicians who promise the Moon.
It appears that voters in this election, cast their ballot based on ideology. The only election issue that  seemed to matter was the voter's attitude towards conservative governance versus social democracy. Even in Quebec, after the Bloc and sovereignty were rejected as an election issue, the choice boiled down to left versus right.

If these three simple conclusions are true, they will have a devastating impact in the next Quebec provincial election, even if it is over two years away.
For Jean Charest and Pauline Marois, it bodes poorly for both their political futures.

Mr. Charest cannot count on voters forgetting his past misdeeds, too numerous to enumerate. If six months is indeed considered a lifetime in politics, not even a cat's nine lives would suffice to assuage Quebeckers anger at Mr. Charest for perceived betrayals.
The Liberal brand has become toxic and like a polluted dump site it will take more than a few years to rehabilitate the brand. 
Much as I consider Mr. Charest a personal friend and it pains me to say so, reality is reality.

But Madame Marois and the PQ are no longer the natural alternative.  She is roundly unpopular  and the PQ's promise to militate aggressively for sovereignty is a turnoff for most who don't want to go down a losing road again.

Quebec voters have shown (by voting for the Ndp federally) that they will not choose between the lessor of two bad choices and Door Number 3, Francois Legault is looking better and better each day.

If he plays his cards right, he'll be the next Premier of Quebec.