Is Pauline Marois Toast?

Tuesday's debate in the National Assembly should have been a banner day for Pauline Marois as the House was set to pass Bill 115 as the government brought closure to the contentious language debate. Wishing to make the point that Quebeckers make up only 2% of North Americans, she misspoke badly and told the House that "Nous ne sommes qu'un petit peuple" ("We're just a small people")

Premier Charest pounced on the gaffe and reminded Marois that Quebeckers are not a small people but rather a BIG people, small in numbers.
The gaffe was memorialized in a particularly humiliating cartoon by YGRECK

To PQ supporters it was another example of the poor performance of their leader who has clearly not connected with the voters.

While the beleaguered Jean Charest and the Liberal party are at the nadir of their popular support, the PQ seems unable to build any momentum.

A few days after ex-PQ hotshot Francois Legault floated a balloon that he'd be starting a new political party, one that would put aside the sovereignty question, yet remain nationalistic, LE DEVOIR published a poll that  indicated that the Parti Quebecois would get less votes than this new party.  Link

Mr. Legault's party was supported by 30% of Quebeckers to just 27% for the PQ and 25% for the Liberals. Not particularly comforting numbers.

In a Leger poll that considered only the actual parties in exisitence, the PQ fell to 34% support compared to the Liberals 28%. Still not very reassuring. It seems that the fastest growing political movement is the "None of the above" at 13%.

The PQ faithful are not amused.

Next year, Madame Marois is facing a leadership review and it's hard to see her surviving. The last leader, Bernard Landry resigned after failing to crack the 75% level of support among party members. There's little chance that she can do as well, never mind better.

But replacing Madame Marois is problematic, with Legault, the heir apparent, out of the picture. Everyone else is either too low profile or too radical.

That leaves the PQ with only one viable choice.



GILLES DUCEPPE....

Yup, Gilles Duceppe, who has lusted after the  job at the PQ for years. With his Ottawa pension intact he can safely take the plunge back into provincial politics.
To sovereingists, he possesses everything they need, namely rock hard  commitment to independence.  To supporters he has, proven leadership abilities and an abundance of experience.

The fact that he's a bit dopey seems of no consequence.

It is beginning to look more and more likely.

Premier Duceppe?

The War Measures Act- 40 Years Later

Seventy years ago, the German armed forces launched a devastating surprise attack on Poland that led to the defeat and total capitulation of that country in less than a month.  This opening salvo of World War Two was a frightening lesson in expert and innovative military planning and execution, one that would re-write the doctrine of modern warfare.
The massive attack by armored units across the length of the border, coupled with a punishing aerial assault by the German air force's vaunted dive bombers, left the Poles stunned and overwhelmed, unable to offer meaningful resistance.  It was over before it began.

The doctrine of a rapid, surprise and overwhelming assault became known as the 'Blitzkrieg' (Lightening War) and was successfully repeated sixty-three years later by the Americans in their assault on Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi military.
Now renamed "Shock and Awe" the military doctrine hasn't changed much since the German attack on Poland.
The Americans delivered a massive surprise attack with an overpowering and brutal display of air power that was coupled with lightening attacks into the country by armoured units along multiple fronts. Sound familiar?
Faced with such an overpowering assault, like Poland, Iraq was utterly defeated within a month.

Forty years ago the implementation of the 'War Measures Act' by the federal government in reaction to the kidnappings of two individuals by FLQ terrorists can be best understood and appreciated in the context of "Shock and Awe"

Back then, the Quebec government and the forces of order, including the RCMP, were fighting an underground war against a small but effective group of terrorists who represented a very real and present danger to society.
The terrorists were not only waging a war of Quebec Independence, it was also an ideological battle with a socialist agenda that would supposedly transform Quebec into a worker's paradise.

Today this may sound a little lame, but back then the battle between Communism and democracy was very real, with multiple battles being fought across the globe.

Today the FLQ is being portrayed by revisionists and apologists as a benign organization of misguided dreamers, but the truth is that the various FLQ 'cells' perpetrated close to 200 violent acts of terrorism, including robberies and bombings and were directly responsible for about a dozen deaths and dozens of injuries.
The bombing of the Montreal Stock exchange that injured 27 people was the clearest statement by terrorists that the 'system' was under assault and that collateral human damage was an acceptable part of the revolution.

The kidnapping of the James Cross and Pierre Laporte was an escalation, seen as a direct assault on the foundations of society,  which was feared to be the onset of a coordinated attempt to overthrow the government.

As the kidnapping remained unresolved for weeks, popular support for the kidnappers was building.

In the following days, FLQ leaders held meetings to increase public support for the cause. Consequently, a general strike involving students, teachers and professors resulted in the closure of most French-language secondary and post-secondary academic institutions. On October 15, 1970, more than 3,000 students attended a protest rally in favour of the FLQ. Demonstrations of public support influenced subsequent government actions.Wikipedia

At a rally in the Paul Sauve Arena, in Montreal, Michel Chartrand, the fiery union leader, proclaimed that support for the FLQ was rising;

"We are going to win because there are more boys ready to shoot members of Parliament than there are policemen.  Wikipedia

The rally freaked out mainstream Quebeckers as well as the government, who viewed the event as a possible prelude to outright rebellion in Quebec;

Officials of the government of Quebec became so alarmed that they along with the opposition members of the National Assembly unanimously urged the federal government to act.

And act it did.
When a reporter asked the Prime Minister just how far he would go to stop the FLQ, Trudeau replied: "Just watch me".

$150 K reward in 1970. Wow!

It was then that Trudeau invoked the 'War Measures Act' and unleashed his very own version of 'Shock and Awe.'

The War Measures Act allowed the government to assume wide emergency powers in the event of "war, invasion or insurrection, real or apprehended," including the right to arrest and detain without a warrant.

In the dead of night, in a massive and sweeping operation, close to 500 suspected FLQ members and sympathizers, as well as journalists, teachers and radical unionists were rounded up and taken into custody.
Polls later indicated that the public supported the government actions in the order of 85%.

While not everyone placed in custody was subversive, the leadership of the organized public support for the FLQ was effectively neutralized. Those not caught in the dragnet went into hiding or remained fearfully silent.

The massive over-reaction by Trudeau, which included sending the army into the streets of Montreal was something that was completely unimaginable and its effect was overwhelming.

Public support for the FLQ came to a stunning halt. The chilling effect of the arrests rocked the radical world of the FLQ and its sympathizers.

The War Measure Act and the arrest of the 500,  broke the backbone of the FLQ movement in just one night.

That is the definition of 'Shock and Awe.'

After a couple of months all those arrested were released, the kidnappers disposed of and the FLQ movement destroyed, never to reappear.

A couple of days ago, the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste honoured the 'noble 500' by erecting a statue in front of their offices. The detainees were hailed as victims and heroes. Bernard Landry called the actions of the Trudeau government 'terroristic' and gross over-reaction in relation to the threat.

Of course, the principle reason for all this griping by separatists today is because of the  very success Trudeau achieved in destroying the FLQ. I guess it just doesn't sit very well.

Forty years later it's hard to imagine how events would have played without the implementation of the War Measures Act.

I for one, am happy that Trudeau had the intestinal fortitude to do what he did.

By the way, is 'Shock and Awe' dead?

Let me give you a hint - Toronto, G20, 1,000 Arrests?  Hmmm.......

Idiot Abroad - Gilles Duceppe in Washington

It's always interesting to watch political spin artists weave their masterful flights of fancy, re-interpreting the world to promote their own agenda, regardless of reality.

Gilles Duceppe in Fantasyland

It's a special skill that political leaders acknowledge as necessary and each political party has their own 'spinmeisters' that engages the press with their very special versions of the truth.

A recent example of spin was Dimitri Soudas (Harper's spinmeister) claim that Canada lost the Security Council seat at the United Nations because of opposition leader Michael Igantieff's lack of support. The story was then put out that the loss was an expected consequence of principled policies and was to be expected. At any rate, in a classic spirit of 'sour grapes,' the loss portrayed as no big deal. Hmm.....

That being said, when it comes to spin, nobody beats Gilles Duceppe, who needs no help from professionals. He is the ultimate expert at the fine art of creating an alternative universe, one where everything unfolds according to his plan and where he is a conquering hero.

And so Gilles Duceppe's 'triumphant' conquest of Washington is another masterful performance of taking lemons and turning it into lemonade.

According to Mr. Duceppe, his recent visit included meetings with 'high' officials in the State Department and presentations before two prestigious think tanks, as well as important 'private' meetings with members of the Canadian-American Business Council. A smashing success!

As Lawrence Welk used to say...Wunerful! Wunerful!...

In the Quebec press, ever eager to validate the separatists, the visit to Washington was portrayed as a noteworthy political event, one where the separatist leader was afforded a polite and friendly forum among Washington's movers and shakers.

But reality is somewhat different.

Mr. Duceppe's carefully crafted visit was an abject embarrassment, one where the separatist leader was mercilessly snubbed by those who counted.

Of the almost six hundred elected officials to Congress, not one gave Mr. Duceppe the time of day. No interviews, no lunches, no handshakes and no photo ops.

Notwithstanding Mr. Duceppe's statement that the Obama administration was too busy with mid-term elections to meet with him, the reality is that as well as the congressional snub, there wasn't an any other official, Democrat or Republican who dared meet with the sovereignist leader.

This, one can imagine, after months of desperate attempts to secure meetings with someone, anyone who counts. 

For American politicians, Mr. Duceppe is toxic.

The idea of consorting with a French Canadian who advocates the breakup of Canada is about as enticing as attending a birthday celebration in honour of Mahmoud Ahmajinedad at the Iranian embassy.
Among the Washington set, who tend to see the world as black or white,  French-Canadian secessionists are viewed just a step above Al-Quaida. The idea of lending support to their cause, by virtue of a meeting is about as likely as Mr. Duceppe landing an audience with the Queen.

Mr. Duceppe's public line, crafted for public consumption back home, was that he was going to Washington to convince politicians to remain neutral in any future negotiation between Quebec and Canada vis-a-vis sovereignty.
While this may sound plausible at home, for Americans it's as ridiculous as your brother-in-law asking you not to choose sides in the upcoming divorce between him and your sister. 

Mr. Duceppe's speaking engagement before a think tank, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, was a sad little affair that didn't even make the institute's own web site, where no mention of the speaking engagement was made either before or after the event.  See the events calander here.

As for 'prestige,' all is not rosy at the Institute, which has been accused of conflict of interests and of accepting large corporate donations to shape opinion. Link

It begs the question, did Mr. Duceppe pay to speak?

Reading the online accounts of the trip, it's clear that nobody in the Quebec media actually went down with Mr. Duceppe to cover the story and the media relied on Bloc Quebecois press releases and telephone interviews to cobble together a story as best they could.

The only article that seemed to have some first hand information about the speaking engagement was the Toronto Star,  which reports that the small audience of less than a couple of dozen people gave Mr. Duceppe a rough ride during questions after the speech.

Mr Duceppe was challenged as to how an independent Quebec could expect to be afforded entry into NAFTA, given America's new protectionist attitude.

"No problem," answered Mr. Duceppe who maintained the rosy fiction that the world will beat a path to the door of an independent Quebec. "Just wait and see."......Ugh!

As for Mr, Duceppe's claim that he attended high level meetings with the State Department, nothing could be more laughable.
Readers should understand that being fobbed off to the State Department for 'meetings' is the ultimate insult reserved for tin-pot dictators and other undesirable foreign diplomats and politicians, deemed unworthy of meeting actual administration officials, even of the lowest order.

Had Mr Duceppe met with Hillary Clinton or even Dr. Arturo Valenzuela, Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs, it would have been newsworthy, but since we didn't hear anything of the sort, it can be safely assumed that Mr. Duceppe met with a low level bureaucrat from the Canadian desk, suckered into taking the meeting by his boss.

What is most telling in this whole affair is that there's not one American official, elected or appointed, nor any State Department bureaucrat who would allow a photo to be taken with Uncle Gilles. Nobody.

And so while Mr. Duceppe weaves the fantasy that he was well-received in Washington and that Americans are listening and open to his message, nothing could be farther form the truth.

Mr Duceppe would have us believe, that in his painful and broken English, he managed to make palatable, what is an anathema to Americans, an independent, left-wing, French state, smack dab on their northern border.

More spin. More lies. More crapola.

And nobody is prepared to cry out in public, that this emperor has no clothes!

Bits'n Pieces - Volume One

Péladeau crushes union

Pierre-Karl Péladeau, Quebec's media scion, has delivered another crushing blow to his striking journalists at the Journal de Montreal. 

"Difficult to be served in French in Montreal"

In his latest offer, he has told the union that he'll only re-hire  about 50 of the 250 strikers. Take it or leave it!.......Ouch!

Since all the strikers had to vote on the offer, it was a forgone conclusion that the offer would be rejected.

But once again, the union may have overplayed its hand. Péladeau put $20 million on the table or about 150,000K in severance per fired employee.

The reality is, that the only alternative the union has, is to stay on strike forever and get zippo!

Even Quebec's anti-scab law hasn't slowed the newspaper from publishing, as free-lancers who don't technically cross picket lines(they send in their stories via email) have replaced the journos.
Well-played PK!!!!

To make matters worse for the union, circulation has actually increased by over 10% during the strike, despite the union's call for a boycott. So much for public solidarity!

While I have some sympathy for the clearly over-matched union clods, I can't help but appreciate that since the strike, the newspaper has dropped its relentless Anglo-bashing.

It now concentrates on stories about government over-spending, lazy  and incompetent union members or government employees and overpaid civil-servants. No shortage of material there!

Representative of this new type of reporting is a story that appeared in yesterday's edition. It detailed the case of Quebec's 'Chief Forrester' whose mandate isn't being renewed. The Minister in charge denied that it had anything to do with excessive expense claims made by Pierre Levac, who charged over $70,000 in mileage during his mandate. It seems that he lives in suburban Montreal, while his government job is based in Roberval, over 600 kilometres away. He was given permission to charge the ten hour round trip commute as a normal business expense!
Asked  to respond, Madame Normandeau's aide didn't seem too upset. "You know, as long as the work gets done..... " By the way the new Chief Forrester will be required to live in the area......Link

Keep up the good work!

Surprise! Politicians lie
A lot of us had high hopes that the Bastarache Commission would come up with a definitive answer as to whether Liberal organizers used undue influence in the selection of judges, but alas, it was not to be.

Perhaps we are spoiled by television legal dramas that feature fearful defendants, who crack in the witness box under the relentless questioning of skillful attorneys. Failing that, there is always irrefutable forensic evidence or the inevitable reveal of the 'smoking gun.'

Too bad that it doesn't happen that way in real life, where reality more resembles our thoroughly unsatisfying Bastarache Commission, where witness after witness told fantastical versions of the truth, with lawyers for the commission or for Mr. Bellemare, unable to crack them or offer any effective rebuttal.

The only irrefutable fact to come out of the hearings, is that certain politicians and political hacks, have no compunction about lying under oath.

In sworn testimony, Marc Bellemarre claimed that he confronted the Premier on September 2, 2003 to air out his complaints about political interference by Liberal party fundraisers in the selection of candidates for appointments to the bench.
On the other hand, Premier Charest, in sworn testimony said that the meeting never occurred!

Somebody's lying!!!

In fact during the closing arguments by both Charest and Bellemare's lawyers, they combined to accuse practically every witness of lying!

In making up one's mind about where the truth really lies, it comes down to who's side you were on going into the hearings.
Who's the winner and loser in all this!
Loser = Jean Charest, Marc Bellemare and the public
Winner = The lawyers =$$$$

'Terrorist' not in Quebecois lingo
A lot has been written in the press recently in relation to the fortieth anniversary of the October Crisis, when two separate FLQ  (Front de libération du Québec) terrorist cells kidnapped a Quebec cabinet Minister and British trade consul.

It seems that there's a concerted effort to re-write history and romanticize the kidnappers, describing them as misguided young dreamers who never intended to kill Pierre Laporte and whose death was nothing more than an unfortunate accident.

Read an excellent account of this  phenomenon by DON MACPHERSON, writing in the Montreal Gazette entitled "Extremist makeover -the FLQ edition"

But this makeover seems to cross all political and journalistic lines. In article after article, in television or radio, among francophone journalists, the word 'terrorist ' seems not to exist in describing the FLQ.

I've scanned over one hundred articles recently and incredibly, the FLQ is called a lot of things, but not terrorists.

"felquistes" - "ravisseurs" - "révolutionnaires" - "jeunes felquistes"
"groupe armé" - " individus" - " kidnappeurs"

Here's just a sampling of the articles I reviewed;

La Presse Canadienne Montreal -- TVA/LCN- Crise d'Octobre -- LCN -Claude Poirier -- La Presse- 

Lysiane Gagnon -- CANOE--Metro Montreal- Chronologie de la Crise d'octobre 1970-

NORMAN DELISLE -- Journal de Montreal -- Canoe --  Radio-Canada --  Rue Fronteanc 

 LaPresseAffaires -- Révélations sur la mort de Pierre Laporte -- Le FLQ à Sainte-Anne-de-Larochelle
 Le fil des événements-Journal de Montreal -- La Crise d'octobre: 40 ans après Une mort fortuite, pas un assassinat --

In fact the only article that I could find referring to 'terrorism' in relation to Quebec is this one.
De Londres à Ottawa, le terrorisme d’État dans l’histoire du Québec.
Interestingly it refers to 'state terrorism,' not the FLQ. hmm....

And so in Quebec, it is clearly verboten or perhaps politically incorrect to refer to members of the FLQ as terrorists. Why?
Is it a case of “one man’s terrorist being another’s freedom fighter.”

What if 33 miners were stuck underground  in a Quebec mine?
Thanks to Geneviève, who sent me an email giving me a heads up to a hilarious article that presents a spoof of what it would be like if miners would be trapped in a Quebec mine and subject to Quebec bureaucracy. Hilarious!
Sorry, the article is in French and there's no English translation.

Sovereignists Freaked Out by 'Force Quebec'

The announcement last week by ex-Parti Quebecois bigwig, François Legault, that he may be starting a new political party in Quebec has sent shock waves through the political establishment. Link

Mr. Legault has quite rightly read the political mood of the province, which is dominated by a profound dislike of the Liberal government, coupled with abject disdain of the alternative, the Parti Quebecois.

As unpopular as Mr. Charest is, Pauline Marois is not generally perceived as a viable alternative and with personal polling numbers that are almost as bad as the Premier's, it's clear that both parties are ripe for the picking.

Mr. Legault is offering a 'third way,' (la troisième voie) a political dogma between sovereignty and federalism, a government which will remain nationalistic, but without threatening independence. How this will work is not clear, but it seems to be sounding a solid note with francophones who lost confidence in the Liberals, but are afraid of the Parti Quebecois.

While both the Liberals and the Parti Quebecois would be badly hurt by this new party in the short-term (next election), in the long run it is the Parti Quebecois which will be destroyed.

As I wrote in a column last week, the sovereignty option is fast fading and even nationalists are looking for an alternative that will protect Quebec's individuality without pushing an independence option, which they rightly perceive as unattainable.
It seems that voters, dumb as they are, are more realistic about the chances of independence than the Parti Quebecois, who at any rate, will never give up the sovereignty option.

Polls are showing that the new party would get more votes than the PQ or the Liberals and would likely form a minority government. In that case, it would be likely that the Liberals would support the government while they rebuild their brand, gearing up for an eventual two-way fight.

The bad news for separatists is that support for the new party is coming largely at their expense.
Voters willing to move their votes over to the new party are made up of 34% those presently supporting Quebec Solidaire and 29% of Parti Quebecois supporters. The Liberal bleed is less than half at 14%.

The re-alignment of the political stars means that in the future, we will likely see a federalist Liberal party battle a small-c conservative, Force Quebec, a party advocating a nationalistic policy without independence.

How freaked out are the sovereignists over the unfolding winds of change?

Extremely.

The furious reaction in the press by sovereignist stalwarts, forecasting the failure of Force Quebec, was a clear case of 'whistling past the graveyard,' but try as they did, they couldn't hide the fear.

"...my hypothesis is that the movement will probably not become a party." 

"Chances are that Legault and Facal are mainly positioning themselves in case Marois should falter."

-Josee Legault -Montreal Gazette 

"Putting the sovereignty question under the carpet is like pretending winter doesn't exist."

-Richard Martineau-journal de Montreal

"Force Quebec will never see the light of day."

-Richard LeHir

Just as the Parti Quebecois sent the Union Nationale party into political oblivion, the fear is real among sovereignists that this is the beginning of the end of the Parti Quebecois as a political force. Remember that two elections ago the party was relegated to third place behind the ADQ.

And so for the Pequistes and their supporters it's certainly time to fret....

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A NOTE ON CANADA'S UNITED NATIONS 'HUMILIATION'

In an insane asylum taken over by the inmates, it's no great dishonour to be rejected by the majority.

The only saving grace in Canada not getting a seat at the Security council is that we lost to Portugal.
We could have been rewarded with Iran, Libya or some other banana republic, which would no doubt be a more popular choice among the sad loser countries that make up the majority of the once august body.
There are those of us at home who will berate the government for it's principled polices that led us to be rejected by this merry band of fools.

Fair enough. Let's be thankful that we have that type of democracy where real free speech exists. How many countries that voted against can say the same?

In the spirit of celebrating that freedom, a shout out to the Canadian Arab Federation who helped torpedo the nomination by circulating an E-mail entitled. “Don’t Give Canada a Security Council Seat.” Well done!

I wonder what would happen, if an organization similar to the Canadian Arab Federation agitated in a similar fashion in any of the CAF's member's ancestral Arab homelands.

In an online comment written in reaction to a story about Canada's loss, a reader asked an intriguing hypothetical question;
Would an independent Quebec with Pauline Marois as its leader have voted for Canada? ..Dunno.....