So in that respect, I feel somewhat vindicated.
Western Military planners and the intelligence services vastly over-estimated Russia's military prowess, basing their analysis on the fact that Russia had developed very modern weapons and has an enormous military.
It also served the military/industrial complex to talk up the threat.
But the west failed to understand that while Russia can develop fancy
and modern weapons, it remains a backward and dysfunctional nation
unable to financially support nor operate a modern military regardless
of the top-end weapons.
Everything that is necessary to win on the
modern battlefield is utterly lacking in the Russian military, be it
logistics, organization, integrity, secure communication, coordination of forces,
equipment maintenance, quality and workmanship of rolling stock,
munitions and armour and most importantly motivated and well-trained
soldiers.
The west should have understood this.
Russia is a Powerful Nation
Russia is a nuclear weapon power and as such can be feared, but that's where its power ends.
For some reason, we have the impression that Russia is a wealthy and powerful adversary, which it is not.
Its 145 million population is just 43% of that of the USA and its economy is about 11 times smaller.
In fact, Russia's economy is half the size of that of California and smaller than that of Texas and New York.
Canada, with 25% of Russia's population has a bigger economy.
The average salary that Americans make is 7 times larger than that in Russia.
Putin is Insane
He started the war based on the utterly false impression that Ukrainians would welcome Russian interference, while vastly overestimating Russia's military prowess. His professional military and intelligence community all fed him a false picture of reality. Putin thought he could win easily.
Sound ridiculous and implausible?
Think back to the war in Iraq waged by America on the utterly false assumption that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. The military and intelligence services all fed the President an utterly false view of the situation, all because President Bush wanted to go to war.
Nobody called Bush insane for waging an idiotic war based on nonsense.
The Russian people are not responsible for the war
There is a fundamental misunderstanding in the west that holds that Russians are a people oppressed, yearning to be free of communist control.
Not at all true.
Unlike the rest of eastern Europe which threw off the shackles of communist control to join the west, Russian embrace the myth that they are special and entitled to an empire.
Most Russians wholeheartedly endorse the war because its expansionist goals are roundly supported.
If you are wondering why there is relatively so little protest against the war in Russia, it isn't because of fear of retribution or ignorance.
Russians mostly accept the brutal fantasy that they are destined to conquer other nations and rule by force and terror.
Russia shares western values
Russia's prosecution of war has always been marked by brutality and incompetence with little value placed on human life be it the enemy or their own.
Russian militarily doctrine is to throw into battle enough bodies to tire out the enemy with little regard to its own losses. During the famous Russian/German campaign of World War 2, Russia took seven casualties to every German one. When asked about the horrendous losses Field Marshall Zhukov shrugged off the question with the flippant remark that 'Russian women will make more babies.' He also is quoted as saying;
"If we come to a minefield, our infantry attacks as if it is not there". ....yup.
Russians don't care about their own, which explains why they are so brutal to others.
Modern Russian military doctrine is the same as in the middle ages where siege weapons including catapults or trebuchets would encircle population centres and lob projectiles.
And so the levelling of the city of Mariupol with artillery is just another example of what Russia did in Georgia, Chechnya and Syria.
Generalizations aside, Russians don't share western values about life.
Getting Rid of Putin will Solve the "Russia Problem"
Sadly, regime change won't change Russia's aggressive attitude and dreams of conquest and empire.
There is a very deep and dark problem in Russian society where even Russian liberals espouse imperialistic policies which largely accept the notion that Ukraine and eastern Europe belongs to Russia by manifest destiny.
There is a deep aversion to democracy and an open acceptance of wars of conquest.
A long war will benefit Russia
Russia has already lost the war, all they can do is destroy Ukraine. But they will destroy Russia as well.
The goal of conquering Ukraine and installing a puppet government can no longer be achieved regardless of how long the war lasts.
A protracted war will only make things worse for Russia and Ukraine with all parties losing.
But with weapons pouring in from the west and an energized resistance buoyed by Ukrainian victories, the Russians are between a rock and a hard place.
Between decimated armour and personnel and supply lines unable to replenish forces, Russia faces a grim outcome.
Running out of weapons and soldiers as well as crippling sanctions that will bear down on the economy, a long protracted war will destroy Russia.
The real winner in a long protracted war (if there can be any) is NATO, which will see Russia's conventional forces utterly degraded if not destroyed.
All the weapons NATO ships to Ukraine are a bargain because they were meant to be used against Russia anyways. It can be said that Ukraine is doing NATO's dirty work and while NATO didn't choose this scenario, it is certainly enjoying the collateral benefits.
In conclusion, we might want to reconsider our image of Russia as an enemy.
Married to the dogma of entitled manifest destiny via violent conquest, Russia most resembles ISIS in its philosophy and war-mongering.
We owe Russia the same respect and consideration.
