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| Philippe Coullard..What to do, what to do? |
(Note to readers;Have you got the feeling lately that Bernard Drainville and the PQ have seized the momentum in regards to the debate over the Charter Of Value, because I certainly have.
This post was written over the weekend before the poll indicating that the PQ is now ahead of the Liberals in the polls. That fact actually reinforces the importance of Liberals charting a new course in regards to the Charter of Values.)
There's a clear scenario being played out in front of us, one in which the PQ is engineering an election based on the Charter of Values, where the issue which has so engrossed and dominated our attention of late, will render such an election, a one-issue affair.
What that result would be is up in the air, but in my estimation, it would be a PQ majority government or perhaps a repeat of the status quo, a PQ minority, so badly has Philippe Couillard handled the issue that the Liberals have lost the momentum they had built up before the Charter became a significant issue..
Perhaps it's time for the Liberals to switch strategies and admit that fighting the Charter is a losing battle, at least in consideration of francophone voters who traditionally sit on the fence and switch their votes between the PQ and Liberals based on issues other than sovereignty.
That is the dangerous position in which the Liberals find themselves today and the longer the committee hearings over the Charter continue, the more support will build for the Charter.
Why will support build?
Because for most francophones, even non-separatists, watching the English and Ethnic community squirm and howl over the Charter is a delicious cocktail of payback and revenge.
Threats of future turmoil and social upheaval are considered by most as nothing more than the desperate machinations of a community on the losing end of a shoving match and the threats as desperate a ploy as the famous 'Brinks Coup', the well-publicized movement of securities out of Quebec on nine Brink's armoured cars on the eve of the 1970 provincial election, meant to frighten Quebecers into voting Liberal. {Link{fr}
Quebecers are on guard against any repetition of the invocation of another Bonhomme sept heures, so predictions of gloom and doom at the committee hearings by minorities are counter-productive, actually boosting support for the Charter.
The passage of the charter is also a perceived affirmation that francophones rule this province absolutely and represents a concrete lesson to the Anglos and Ethnics that they are not in charge, not even in the least.
So what can Philippe Couillard and the Liberals do, they are clearly on the losing side of the issue as far as francophones are concerned, and even though the majority of Francophones supporting the charter is not overwhelming, it is enough to give the PQ an election win if those voters base their vote on the one issue.
No doubt, it is a difficult issue to manage and Couillard hasn't done a particularly good job at defining where the Liberals should be. His perceived weakness has hurt the party and its standing, the label of Phillipe-flop seriously undermining his credibility as a strong leader.
It has become clear that it is well nigh impossible for the Liberals to develop a coherent policy against the Charter, because taking a strong stand against it, is a recipe for disaster, a water-downed stance is viewed as weak and unseemly.
Given the choice between two bad options, sometimes it is better to choose neither.
Let me propose another strategy....letting the Charter pass unopposed, even though the idea sounds heretical.
Here's my plan....
Philippe Couillard and the Liberals should keep a low profile during the debate, and let the PQ go on with the Gong Show, because any interference in the debate with nothing to offer but lily-livered solutions, will only serve as a detraction to the Liberal brand.
And so the Liberals should lull the PQ into a false sense of security, letting them play out their election stratagem by appearing unsure of what to do and how to react.
After the committee hearings end, and the day the legislation is tabled, Couillard should boldly announce that the Liberals will abstain and allow the legislation to pass, because more important issues are at hand, the budget and the faltering economy in particular and where as the debate on the Charter has distracted Quebecers and stolen their attention from the real issues that matter.
This will send the PQ reeling and dash any hope of a quickie election call or a welcome defeat of the Bill in the Assembly, triggering a new election.
The PQ will have no choice but to pass their Charter and live with the consequences.
The sun will rise the next day, the debate will be over and the harsh realities of the negative consequences of the newly enacted Charter will begin to manifest rather quickly.
And so the leaders of the Charter lynch mob led by Drainville and championed in the media by Richard Martineau and Mathieu Bock-Cote will suddenly become rebels without a cause.
When doctors start resigning, teachers walk out of classes and day cares, in wildcat actions, when health workers tell residents in government old-age homes to stuff it, reality will set in.
When opponents of the Charter mobilize, it won't be pretty and the PQ will not be able to react.
Now polls showing support for the Charter among francophones also show that two-thirds of them don't want anyone to lose their job over non-compliance, so how will the PQ react when push comes to shove?
What will be the reaction of Drainville,and Pauline when workers perturb the workplace or go out on sick-outs in large numbers.
Students on strike hurt nobody but themselves, but doctors closing their practices, nurses and support workers not showing up to work, or teachers closing down schools forcing parents to miss work and take care of the kids is a situation that can crush society and very quickly.
I've said it before, be careful what you wish for, you might get it.
Coupled with this social unrest, the PQ will also have a budget to table, one that will be nothing less than a disaster, With falling revenues, rising unemployment and increasing expenses, I wouldn't want to be in Nicholas Marceau's shoes, having to deliver a bad news budget extraordinaire.
I can't think of a better scenario for the Liberals.
An election under these circumstances will sweep the Liberals into power with a majority government, free to undo the harsher components of the Charter and creating one that is kinder and gentler, exactly what the Liberals were willing to accept under a proposed Charter compromise offered by the CAQ.
Allowing the PQ chickens to come home to roost, will have the added benefit of thoroughly discrediting Pauline as a leader, hurting the separatist movement for years to come and returning the province to a less toxic government.
Is this scenario far-fetched?
I don't think so, it can all happen within a few short months.
There's an old saying about letting your enemies hang themselves through their own self-destructive actions.
It may be time for Couillard and the Liberals to step back and give Pauline, Drainville and the PQ enough rope to do exactly that.
