Friday, May 1, 2009

New Poll Shows Ignatieff's Liberals On a Quebec Roll

Looking at today's polling numbers out of Quebec, it's becoming abundantly clear that the Federal Liberals under Michael Ignatieff are on quite a roll.

A bit of number crunching shows that if an election were held today, the Liberals would make quite a breakthrough.

Here is the Quebec seat distribution in the federal Parliament, as of last October's federal election;

Here is a hypothetical seat distribution if Quebeckers voted last week;

Here are the ridings that the Liberal would take away;

Compton--Stanstead (BQ), Ahuntsic(BQ), Alfred-Pellan(BQ), Brome-Missisquoi(BQ), Brossard--La Prairie(BQ), Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine(BQ), Gatineau(BQ), Jeanne-Le Ber(BQ), Laval(BQ), Louis-Hébert(BQ), Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis(BQ), Outremont(NDP), Pontiac Saint-Lambert(CONS)

Here are the ridings that the BQ woud take away;
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord (CONS)

The following ridings, now held by the Bloc, are in danger of going Liberal should the Liberals increase their polling numbers by just 2% with a commiserate fall in support of the BQ.

Abitibi--Témiscamingue, Compton--Stanstead, Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik, Saint-Maurice--Champlain, Shefford

Interestingly, the drop in Conservatives support by over 30%, translates to a loss of only 2 seats.

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1 comment:

  1. This being said, I can tell you the the libs lost in Jeanne-Le-Ber because they really chose poorly their candidate. The guy was not even able to go to a debate with the candidates of the other parties.

    I hope Ignatieff is serious enough to reorganize his party to get out of this complacency.