Watching Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May's painful struggle over an impossible successful Brexit strategy, I am reminded that sometimes there is just no good outcome to be had.
And so it seems that Premier Francois Legault's hasty decision to cut immigration to Quebec is a 'damned if you do and damned if you don't' scenario, as well.
There will also be no good outcome.
It is painfully obvious that Quebec needs immigrants but doesn't seem to want any, at least according to the CAQ, lest they pollute and further dilute the linguistic, cultural and historical makeup of Quebec.
But clearly the decision to curtail immigration will have ramifications, both on Quebec's shrinking workforce and its demographic weight in Canada.
For once, regardless of which side of the fence on immigration you sit, the underlying numbers are clear to all.
In 1960 Quebecers gave birth to 144,000 babies a year, a number which has steadily declined to just 84,000 births this last year, a precipitous drop.
Quebec (as well as all successful western democracies) does not produce enough babies to maintain its population base. It takes a reproduction rate of 2.1 births per woman to maintain a stable population, but Quebec's rate has fallen to 1.56.
When it comes to political decisions, voters are clearly incapable of judging the effects of policy over the long term, but raising taxes, cutting benefits or raising tuition or sales tax in the immediate almost certainly results in a visceral negative public reaction. Look what happened to the Liberals over proposed university tuition rises where student demonstrations became violent.
In contrast, Justin Trudeau's decision to goose the deficit through obscene over spending is garnering not a whiff of protest because its effects are in the future, and for voters, out of sight is definitely out of mind. Paradoxically the federal Liberal government's decision to add a hundred or two billion to the federal deficit will cost those same students, the ones who went apeshit over tuition hikes much more in the long run because of the increased future taxes that they will pay, needed to service that new debt.
The same can be said of Legault's decision to cut immigration to Quebec where the effect will take years to materialize and so its effect on voters today is minimal.
But if Premier Legault believes he can cure Quebec's immigration conundrum with the wave of his hand and with a quick ill-thought out policy, he is as clueless as Doug Ford in believing his rash decision to cut spending on Ontario francophones would pass unchallenged.
First some facts that Premier Legault should understand.
Quebec needs to shore up its population....period.
If the decision to cut immigration stands, then Quebec's population will start to diminish while the rest of Canada's will increase.
That's right, this decision will undermine Quebec's demographic weight in Canada, which is already declining year to year.
I'm not sure that voters who understand this fact will be pleased.
Premier's Legault's decision can be seen as playing to his base, voters outside the greater Montreal region, in the boonies where immigrants seen from afar, are considered a clear and present danger.
The view from the hinterland is that the Quebec that they grew up in, the one they live in, is under attack from barbarians at the gate, bent on imposing Islam upon them and their children.
And let us be honest, all this angst over immigration is based on the fear of Muslims and Muslims alone. If immigration was exclusive of Muslims, the opposition to immigration would collapse.
Paradoxically, the lack of potential workers is sharpest in the boonies, because the immigrants who do come to Quebec, choose to settle almost exclusively in the greater Montreal region.
The lack of manpower is starting to hurt quite a bit and some towns are creating job fairs and bussing in potential workers from the immigrant community in Montreal, perhaps accepting that a small community of immigrants amongst the lily-white pseudo-Catholic Francophone towns is preferable to losing industries wholesale due to labour shortages.
Cutting immigration will only exacerbate the problem and while Legault's immigration edict may be a feel-good policy for his base in the short-term, the effects will be palpable much sooner than later.
As Quebec shrinks and Canada expands, voices in Quebec will shriek that its all unfair.
That Canada chooses to allow sufficient immigration in order to maintain its population while Quebec does not, will be portrayed as a plot to drown out Quebec's demographic weight in Canada.
Perhaps it is.....
What can be done?
I've always been puzzled by the absolute silence over the birthrate in Quebec by politicians and nationalist pundits and spokesman.
Clearly the easiest way out of the demographic problem is for Quebecers to have more babies. If one out of three francophone women had three children and the other two, there would be no need for any immigrants!
Why hasn't one government or any nationalist organization proposed this obvious home-grown solution? Why doesn't the government offer incentives and why don't nationalist organizations militate for loyal Quebecers to accept their national obligation to save their society?
Instead the government and the nationalist media rail on and on about immigrants not fulfilling their obligation to join native francophone society, giving up their religious faith and embracing poutine and maple syrup.
For Quebecers it is easier to blame the Anglos for the encroachment of English in Quebec society. Bill 101 was in fact designed not only to keep immigrants out of English schools, but Francophones as well.
For Quebecers, the obligation to preserve Quebec society as French falls on the shoulders of the English and immigrants communities with nothing, no effort at all being asked of the native francophone community.
All this to bring me to the point that Quebecers really don't care. They aren't willing to lift a finger to save their own skins.
No politican or nationalist pundit is brave enough to demand action on birth because they understand they will be laughed at.
Even the extremists in the Bloq Quebecois or the PQ fail to call on Quebecers to save themselves through birth. It is taboo.
Is it because the idea that the responsibility to save one's French own culture falls on Quebec francophones themselves is so outrageous and unrealistic?
The sad truth is that francophone Quebecers want to preserve their language and culture, but want 'les autres' to be responsible for doing so.
As for francophones lifting a finger to do so, it is out of the question, they are too selfish to sacrifice and that is the painful truth.
As for an independent Quebec, what a joke.
Should Quebec ever separate and the true personal cost of sovereignty would be felt, Quebec society would implode.
I think most francophones have realized the personal sacrifice sovereignty would entail and decided to take a pass.
The same goes for immigration where francophone Quebecers aren't willing to accept any responsibility for their own welfare.
First of all, it appears M. Le-go-go sees how well this nuttiness works in the States these days, at least for the moment, and since the people in the boonies are the ones who voted for him, then all he's doing is following what the current guy in the White House is doing. He's a copycat. He's unoriginal, and he's catering to the lowest form of life on the planet a.k.a. the country bumpkin.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, he's just doing what every pro-separatist politician in Quebec has been doing, i.e., turning the screws on their own tighter and tighter.
Thirdly, they've abandoned what the Roman Catholic church taught them to do, i.e., erratically get busy in the boudoir and make some more little Catholics. Interestingly, there is, of all things on American TV, a new show featuring a diehard Catholic family of eight boys called The Kids are All Right (Alright is a misspelling, but what else is new when it comes to abandoning grammar in school?) I think those crummy TV shows put on in Quebec can take that show and probably do a better version just based on the premise of "if you erratically produce more Catholics, God will provide." [Place either a gag or snort of derision here!]
Finally, the simple fact of the matter is switched on automatic when it comes to shooting themselves in the foot. Perceived short-term gains for realistically long-term pains.
I can write on for volumes, but I'm hoping other readers will get on the floor and add their input. Aside from adski, complicated, Tony Kondaks and the other regulars, where is everybody?
Oh...on another subject, but just as idiotic, "Gorgeous" Trudeau upped the equalization ante for Quebec, but abandoned Ontario and Alberta who right now are enduring the real hardships. Good for Gorgeous, abandoning the province with three of every eight seats in Parliament. I hope Ontario voters remember this when we go the polls, about ten months from now. I KNOW how Alberta will remember! Gorgeous's father turned HIS back on Alberta. Like father, like son!
They're not alike at all. Americans put Trump in office knowing pretty much everything about whom he was. Quebec put Legault in office having next to no idea what he was really about.
DeleteAnd Little Potato's handlers (remember that he's a pawn in the Soros game) know full damn well they don't need tiny Alberta to hold office. But Ontario is where reside the votes that all too often change governments. Piss them off at your own risk.
Editor, you told us to vote CAQ!
ReplyDeleteIs any of this a surprise? Did you expect this rich businessman separatist to do any different?
Get ready for at least 4 years of pointless conflict with Ottawa, so they can then complain that Quebec isn't getting it's fair share and rekindle the separatist movement.
Legault probably doesn't even care about these issues, he just wants to go against the federal gov.
While I'm ranting about the new government, let's also bring up the way they're dealing with marijuana legalization. No matter what your point of view is on marijuana, let's use some simple logic here.. 21 years old minimum age to consume sounds like a fine idea to me for health reasons, so let's apply that logic to everything? Alcohol and tobacco are fine at 18, but not marijuana? I guess when you go home to your mansion every night to drink your Remy Martin, you probably don't think so, right mister Legault?
Here was an opportunity to get a very good new source of revenue, which could then go to fixing up our schools or our health care system, and they've managed to mess it up more than any other province. It's ok, the ROC will send us money!
This province is a joke.
Right U R, Anon! Trouble is, the marijuana revenues will go for some other government waste. More language legislation, or perhaps some other way to persecute the minorities who threaten to dilute the tyrannous majority, who are nothing more than white Catholics. They speak French. Others in the world speak English, while others speak Spanish and just about every other language. They label themselves this race, which I guess is OK by, of and in itself. Then again, they see themselves as these special, privileged people or have certain exclusive rights to these privileges, and this is why they are a failure state.
DeleteQuebec, under Dr. Couillard, took the hard steps to improve their fiscal house (even though the threw good money after bad, the bad being Bombardier, but that enterprise has been living on love, fresh air, and primarily government loans-turned-grants for decades on end. Couillard tossed them a billion dollar bone last year, Gorgeous tossed them another $472 million and they still killed a slew of jobs in Canada, many in Quebec.
What irks me to no end is Quebec was thrown over $10 billion in equalization payments yet again, while Ontario and Alberta, the usual "have" provinces currently not doing well yet are still being milked for all they're worth, and then some. Now that Quebec is in good fiscal order, they're doing their usual f*cking up and getting well paid to do it. Failure state!
To me, this sounds like pork barrel politics at its most classic. Gorgeous doesn't like Premier Doug Ford, and has, like his Daddy before him, alienated Albertans as much as can be. Alienate Ontario? Great! Ontario only accounts for 3/8ths of the voters so by doing so, he has all to lose and nothing to gain. I'm more than happy to have this narcissistic jackass removed from his throne. Vote ABL - Anyone But Liberal!
Actually Quebec will be getting 13 billion $ in equalization payments next year, far more than the next highest amount which will be 2.3 billion $ to Manitoba.
DeleteMeanwhile Legault criticizes Alberta oil...
The mentality in this province is that everyone else (especially the evil english ROC) owes us everything, so nobody sees the contradiction in criticizing the source of revenue that is paying for what we have.
I want to puke everytime Quebec gets equalization yet they waste it on total merde, while Ontario is still looked upon as a "have" province. Since Quebec got its fiscal house in order, it's high time they get off the government teat.
DeleteYes, Manitoba and especially the Maritime Provinces get a tawdry amount compared to Quebec, yet Quebec complains they get less per capita than other provinces. Quebec does its darnedest to deflect the discussion of economies of scale, i.e., it costs less per person to offer services to two or more people than to serve just one person. That's why, for example, when you order business letterhead, if you order 50 sheets, it will cost a fortune per sheet whereas if you order a million sheets, it costs pennies per sheet.
Quebec can, but chooses to feed on the ignorant much like the guy in the White House. Maybe that guy learned his tricks from Quebec! The objective of equalization is to ensure provincial government services can be offered on an equal footing. Following the objective to its logical conclusion, it therefore costs a lot less per person to serve Quebec's eight million people vs PEI's population of about ¼ million people.
Unfortunately, the ignorant in Ontario voted for spendthrift Wynne one time too many, but while Quebec could waste its money on maliciously persecuting its minorities, Ontario is told where to get off. I hope Ontario voters will tell PM Gorgeous where to get off. We already know ALBERTA will do exactly that next year! C'mon Ontario - next year it's time to vote for ABL--Anything But Liberal.
@sauga
Delete" Since Quebec got its fiscal house in order, it's high time they get off the government teat."
it's obvious you have no idea what canadian equalization transfers are mate. as if it had anything to do with having provincial fiscal house in order. haha, and you dare sharing your "opinion" on this. good one.
I agree that it is infuriating this whole equalization scam Quebec has going. However I still think we have to look at it per capita..there are 8 times more people in quebec than in Manitoba. You have may have a certain point about costs being lower for a higher population but I think per capita is still the fairest measure. This money is to maintain a certain level of services for everyone to the national standard.
ReplyDeleteOntarians though are stupid enough to keep voting for Gorgeous..especially in Toronto which is just so hip. I would love to see Justin lose but Andrew Scheer is so boooorrring and doesnt stand for anything. I personally like Maxime Bernier and hope a lot of people jump ship to support him however I doubt they will as Canadians are just so slowwwww to change their ways politicially.
"I agree that it is infuriating this whole equalization scam Quebec has going."
Deletewhy is it infuriating? i see it as a way for non oil provinces to benefit from this canadian resource. how else would you share oil wealth otherwise than this kind of scheme? or maybe you think all provinces should keep their resources and wealth for themselves and not share with others? you know who is also against equalization transfers? separatists. have ou been turned into a separatist mate?
Ohhhh.....student student student: Just fanning the sh*t, aren't you? Quebec has loads of resources, but P.M. Gorgeous is busy glad handing to his base. Too, your people are too lazy to dig them up.
DeleteHe'll lose, based on how he alienated Ontario when right now it and Alberta are having hard times. He lost voters anywhere now west of the Manitoba border, but hopefully enough voters will remember how he fumbled election reform, and worse yet $4½ billion on a pipeline that unlikely will ever be built. That Alberta oil is selling for ¼ the price it is anywhere else is preposterous!
Again, when it comes to handling Alberta energy, like father, like son.