A fourth wave will be statistically mild compared to what we've been through and the faster it comes and goes, the better.
That's right, I'll repeat that.
We need more Covid cases right now so that we can largely be done with the pandemic.
Let us remember and consider that sanitary measures including lock-downs,
mask-wearing and social distancing were put in place to 'flatten the curve,' not to eliminate the virus which was an impossibility.
Those measures successfully ensured that our health system wasn't overloaded whilst we were waiting on the vaccine.
But now our situation has evolved and is vastly different. Our hospitals are empty of Covid patients and most of us are vaccinated. In another month we'll be at a point where everyone who intends to be fully vaccinated will be and new vaccinations will stagnate.
Waiting will serve no useful purpose and in fact, continuing sanitary measures will be counter-productive.
It will be time to let the virus loose on the vaccine 'refusenicks' in order that they acquire their immunity through exposure even if it means suffering through the disease. A modern and updated "Chicken Pox Party" for the un-vaccinated will help speed us through the pandemic.
“Before the chickenpox vaccine, parents held these pox parties for their children as catching the virus was almost inevitable.
“So if your cousin or neighbour had it, you went to their house to catch it and get it over with”.
How many of us who took the socially-responsible decision to vaccinate are secretly hoping that the idiot refusenicks get Covid quickly, if not for anything else but just desserts.
And perhaps a quick spike in Covid cases among the unvaccinated will convince some that they should get the vaccine.
It's a route we need to take because protecting the un-vaccinated through continuing wide sanitary measures will just prolong our agony. The highly transmissible 'Delta" variant will get the refusniks sooner or later, so better for us all if it is sooner. A quick month or two spike in cases will allow us to achieve a very high level of resistance allowing us to return to normal.
Yes, there will be some cases of breakthrough cases in those fully vaccinated but it will happen no matter what, sooner or later.
There will be pain no matter so it's better to get it over with.
At any rate......
How is it that a mere civilian like myself has the audacity to make a claim with confidence that my solution is better than what the government and its panel of experts recommend?
Well, I pride myself on statistical analysis. I possess no special insight except a keen and inquisitive mind, unshackled by a political agenda willing to go where the science and statistics take me.
And by the way, I've been right before where Health Canada was dead wrong.
I wrote a blog piece on Covid-19 way back at the beginning of the pandemic which in retrospect was nothing less than prescient, based only on data collated from widely available information coming out of China.
Yup, 16 months ago on March 13, 2020, right at the beginning of the pandemic, I wrote this piece.
The gist of which is summarized in this passage;
“But there is another path, one that would allow us to manage the outbreak and preserve our hospitals to reasonably cope with the outbreak.
We must immediately impose a self-quarantine on everybody over 65 years old and those in vulnerable health categories.
Seniors would be obliged to go into home self-quarantine where they would be forced to ride out the storm. Senior residences would be put on lock down with no visitors and employees would be restricted to working in just one senior residence, reducing contamination from one home to another”.
By all means, read the whole article and tell me I wasn't right then and Health Canada wrong.
How many thousands of lives would have been saved had the government listened to me and not Health Canada?
Bravado aside, I guess I deserve the right to say 'I told you so" and am now telling you once again that our pandemic measures are fatally flawed.
I understand that political considerations were at play, but the prevailing opinion at the time based on the convenient canard of "evolving science" pedalled by Health Canada, could not have been wronger.
" In January, (2020) for example, leading Canadian federal politicians and health officials told us cases of coronavirus would be rare in Canada, that border closures were wrong-headed and unnecessary, and that there was generally no need for private citizens to wear face masks in public." Edmonton Journal
Instead of telling Canadians the truth, that is that Health Canada didn't have any real answers, she made up a response that was tragically disastrous.
It is an amazing thing that she hasn't lost her job and continues to offer Canadians gratuitous advice after being so criminally wrong.
Fool me once.....
And so we come to the fourth wave of covid which is now running rampant in the USA, a situation which we are warned will happen here if we are not super diligent.
But we are not in America and our situation is different. Canadians will soon achieve a rate of vaccination that dwarfs that of America. We have suffered fewer cases and fatalities during the pre-vaccine period because we as a nation embraced the sensible sanitary measure when they were vital in keeping cases low when it counted.
The only failure was that of our government and Health Canada which failed to keep covid out of the retirement homes with disastrous effect.
So to paraphrase Prince Harry who put it so succinctly....
"We are on a different path than our American brothers"
Let us consider the evolving situation;
There will be no 'herd immunity," the concept that tells us that if enough of us are vaccinated, the disease will peter out.
Unfortunately, the new and emerging variants have put paid to that idea.
The Covid virus has proven resilient and resourceful through its many new iterations especially like the current "Delta" variant which is running amok, more virulent and easier to spread. Scientists reluctantly agree that this makes the idea of herd immunity unlikely because the percentage of those who need to be vaccinated is at a threshold higher than we can hope to achieve, largely thanks to the idiot vaccine 'refusniks' who number about 15% of us.
Read this article in New York Times.
The sooner the un-vaccinated refuseniks get sick, the faster we'll be over the pandemic. In fact, the failure of these people to vaccinate is effectively holding us hostage to the virus.
Those in Canada over sixty years old have a vaccine rate of something like 90+ percent and so letting the virus loose on the un-vaccinated will make many sick but will result in few deaths and hospitalizations because refusenicks are mostly young and healthy.
The last argument for maintaining sanitary measures is the fact that children under twelve haven't been vaccinated but again the statistics tell us it isn't really necessary.
For these children, Covid represents a negligible risk.
There have been 7,888 cases of COVID-19 in patients under the age of 20 in Canada, according to Public Health Agency of Canada data last updated Monday night. Of those thousands of young infected patients, only one has died. CTV NEWS
A child involved in a car accident has a 1 in 100 chance of dying.
A child who contracts Covid-19 has a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying. (In fact, the number is vastly higher because most infected children are asymptomatic and don't even know they had the virus.)
At any rate, extrapolating data from Health Canada, during that same 18 months period of the Covid-19 pandemic, tells us that somewhere in the neighbourhood of 50 children under 12 years old died in road accidents. Transport Canada.
Should we ban children from driving in cars?
Those who argue that children can be a vector for transmission are correct, but so, I maintain that that is a good thing because we need to encourage the fourth and hopefully final wave.
Those who are immuno-compromised will be able to hide out during this wave which should not last more than a month or two after which we will largely be done.
It isn't a perfect solution but the best option we have.
Takeaway.... Bring on the fourth wave now,