I'm not going to duck responsibility, I said a fall election was unlikely unless facts on the ground moved significantly and facts have moved significantly, but whether enough to trigger an election remains to be seen.
As things stand now, there will not be an election because things are too close to call, but clearly, momentum is shifting ever so slightly towards the Liberals and all that is required is a two three percentage jump to trigger an election call.
The latest polls indicate that while Charest isn't burning any popularity records, his Liberal party is running neck and neck with his arch rival the Parti Quebecois, an astonishing feat considering the bashing he's taken over the last couple of years. It may speak more to the public's natural uncomfortableness with Marois herself and her divisive policies and talk of unattainable sovereignty that scare the bejesus out of mainstream Quebecers.
More interesting is the fact that Francois Legault's new party, the CAQ, perceived as the one-time savoir of the province, appears to be laying quite an egg after a fireball start last year, where all indications pointed that he'd become the next premier of Quebec.
But six months is a lifetime in politics and Mr. Legault's lack of charisma, his disjointed political platform and his inability to attract star candidates, has his party polling down in the twenty percent level, something that has come to aid Mr Charest's quest for another term. It seems that the CAQ has taken more support from the PQ than the Liberals.
And so this election is decidedly a case of choosing between the lesser of two evils.
While the PQ and the Liberals are running neck and neck, something that always worked to the PQ's favour because of the way the votes fell, where they won the lion's share of the seats, that situation has actually reversed itself.
The Liberals, pretty much in a statistical tie with the Parti Quebecois, are now projected to win more seats!
That is an amazing turn around!
For more detailed polling information, go to threehundredeight.com
The 8% in popular support for the QS, is more significant than it seems, as their votes are bunched in key ridings. Unlike ridings in western Montreal where their support is insignificant, elsewhere, they poll up to 15% or 20%, all of which comes out of the PQ total.
By my calculations, this QS support will allow Liberal candidates to 'steal' up to nine ridings.
Remember when I told you that the Premier wouldn't call an election any time soon because he was in danger of losing his own riding of Sherbrooke?
Well, that too has turned around, again courtesy to a powerful showing by QS, which is polling at about 14% in that riding, all the votes coming directly out of the pocket of the PQ.
Mr. Charest now has a 5-8% lead in the riding.
It's like the Red Sea parting for Moses and the Israelites and who knows, perhaps Mr. Charest is benefiting from some sort of devine intervention.
The two QS candidates projected to win their seats are of course, none other than Amir Khadir and his co-president Francoise David, both will win their Montreal ridings comfortably.
Don't feel too bad, these ridings traditionally belonged to the PQ and the voting block that represents the QS will assure that the Liberals are in position to form a government, either majority, minority or leading a coalition government (my favorite choice.)
As for the talk of uniting separatist forces, there's nothing really in it for the Quebec Solidaire, the PQ is unlikely to give up any seats to accommodate them and there's nothing in it for the QS to withdraw candidates so that the PQ can win a majority, a case where the QS would become redundant.
Better for Khadir to face off with Charest and company than with Marois, which would be a disastrous situation as QS would have to stake out a position farther to the left of the PQ, or as they say in baseball, way out in left field.
Madame Marois could never offer any QS politico a place in her cabinet, in return for not running candidates, so for the QS there's really nothing to gain from cooperation, much to the hand-wringing of die-hard separatists who know that a uniting of all separatists forces is the only way to power.
And so it seems that the stars are aligning for the Liberals.
A big part of the decision to call an election depends on the students, who are promising to start up protests again this fall.
The public has soured on the whole student thing and the 'red square' has become a symbol of entitlement and radicalism. The number of wearers has dropped dramatically as abuse, some physical, is being directed at wearers. There are stories of 'red squares being denied access to bars and restaurants for 'political reasons' and recently Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, the most famous of the student leaders was told in no uncertain terms by the mayor of Trois Pistoles that he wasn't welcome to attend a city sponsored event. Link{Fr}
For the students, whether they realize it or not, the tide has turned, even the PQ know it. Thus the party has unceremoniously dumped the red square from its web site and Pauline removed the telltale sign from her attire weeks ago.
The controversial video that the Liberals put out of her banging pots was devastating, despite the brave face she put up. She looked the right fool, not someone you'd want for Premier.
I've added subtitles for your enjoyment.
After a summer of relative calm, if the students start their destructive tactics once again, whatever support they have will crumble. They are old news.
Another blocked bridge or classroom, a riot or two, and Charest can think about rearranging the furniture in his office, we'll have an election for sure.
Even if things remain the same, as described in the poll above with the seat count giving the Liberals a minority government, things can also work out well.
Instead of ruling from a minority, Charest can form a coalition government with the CAQ, with he as Premier and Legault as vice-Premier.
Let's face it the two parties aren't far apart politically and the stability will offer both parties something they desperately want....power.
Five years of a Charest/Legault coalition sounds like a better deal to me than a PQ government.
Ah, perchance to dream.....
