Dealing with the Wuhan virus long-term seems to be where we are going as health officials tell us that it isn't going away and that it probably will become a seasonal thing.I wrote a piece a while back, describing the danger that the virus poses to the elderly and that prediction seems to have been borne out.
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Premier Legault mentioned that 89% of the Wuhan virus deaths so far in Quebec are in the demographic age group of 70 and over. Most of the other deaths occur in victims with underlying ailments.
That means that just 17 deaths so far are in those younger than 70 years old and almost none in the under 40 years old demographic.
Quebecers have largely hunkered down and stayed home and it's reported in that regard we have done better than any other jurisdiction in North America.
And so today the propagation of the virus is largely restricted to senior residences where people are packed in like sardines and where tragically the virus propagated before the lockdown occurred.
The virus was brought into the homes by the children of these residents who visited after travelling abroad, mostly to Europe.
This sad state of affairs is what I warned about when I said that seniors and those vulnerable should be isolated completely. Alas, it was too late and the damage is now done.
Sadly many seniors will die and paradoxically while we've managed to insulate and protect the large part of society and the least vulnerable, seniors will bear the brunt of the deaths and there's not much we can do about it.
The die is cast.
But these deaths are misleading because they taint the numbers and lead us to believe that we are all in mortal danger which we are not.
The famous curve has been flattened, assuring that hospitals aren't overwhelmed because those seniors who die from the virus do so generally quickly and without burning up precious ER resources.
And so it's time to reopen society, bit by bit, all the time making sure our hospitals can cope.
In this respect, it's time to re-open up daycare and primary schools in order that children become harmlessly exposed thus creating a new generation of the immune. Unlike the famous measles parties of my generation, children suffer almost no symptoms and most don't even know they have the virus.
In just two or three weeks, 15% of our population will become immune.
The parents and teachers of these younger children are in a demographic age-group that should do well when they become infected from their children and will survive, although some will need hospitalization.
The next phase is to open high schools and universities where a slight less positive outcome will occur, but an outcome that our hospitals can deal with and with some inevitable deaths, but still very, very few.
A caveat to all this is that those in this demographic who have underlying health issues must still be isolated.
This phased re-opening of society is the necessary step to insure that the virus burns through society at a controllable rate, like a preventative fire lit to control a forest fire.
I don't think it is reasonable to close down society for the time it takes to find a cure or treatment, we cannot afford it both mentally and economically.
Within a month stores and restaurants should reopen with distancing rules still in place.
Factories and businesses should start up cautiously and life needs to return to a semblance of normalcy.
The only criterion that counts is whether our hospitals can keep up and so a staged re-opening of society should start, probably within two weeks.
We are going to have to face the reality that the virus is here to stay and getting those under 40 (which represents half the population and the most productive) exposed over a controllable period is preferable to hiding at home and delaying the inevitable.
Under this plan, half the population would be free of the virus within two or three months.
By the way, many of the health workers and front line workers are already coming back to work after having defeated the virus. Hospitals are now at a point where patients are being discharged to the point where the influx of new patients is manageable.
The virus spreading through the general population, excluding the elderly and those with underlying health conditions must continue in order for society to get back on its feet.
Only when the rest of society acquires herd immunity can the seniors be protected, so it's important to get on with it.
Once the elderly and the compromised are safely isolated as best we can, it's time for the rest of us to go out and mix and yes, get the virus.
Some will die, but some will die even if we delay.
It's counter-intuitive to re-open society, but necessary so that we can get over the hump.
Bold decisions need to be made and they need to be made soon.
Like a general sending his troops into battle full well understanding that some will die, our leaders must forge ahead bravely and face down the virus for the greater good.
Now is the time for fearless leadership.
