The 51.9% to 48.1% in favour to leave Europe is similar to the tally in the last Quebec referendum where Quebec's decision to stay in Canada was even closer, 50.6% to 49.4%
Suffice to say that in both referendums the voters were almost evenly split, insuring that almost half the population would be bitterly disappointed.
I don't want to revisit the 50% +1 debate, it is a settled issue here in Canada and in Great Britain, but it does demonstrate that this bare threshold is too low to trigger such a life-altering political adventure where life after such a result is a guarantee for a situation chock full of animosity and ill will.
With so many opposed to a delicate project like Quebec sovereignty or Brexit, it is more than likely that those opposed would in Quebec's case, and are in Britain's case, gumming up the works, making sure that the project will ultimately fail.
What we've learned from the post Brexit fiasco is that the devil is in the details and that those who promoted the Brexit option seriously underestimated or deliberately misled the public over the difficulty in leaving, the political, social and most importantly, the economic issues far more daunting than anticipated or disclosed.
"Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has speculated that there might be “a special place in hell” for those people who promoted Brexit without having “even a sketch of a plan” for how to deliver it."In retrospect, it is disturbing to see how badly the leaders of the Brexit campaign misrepresented the reality of a quick and easy Brexit.
Three months before the referendum Michael Gove, the then justice secretary was boldly assuring voters;
“The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.”
He recently admitted that a no-deal, crash-out Brexit would be catastrophic for Britain’s farmers.
Liam Fox, the international trade secretary was still assuring anyone who cared to listen even a year after the referendum that the free-trade agreement Britain would be able to strike with the EU would be “one of the easiest in human history”
Perhaps worse of all the comments were those of Boris Johnson: who is now the leading contender for the now vacated leadership of the Conservative party, given the resignation of Theresa May.
“Boris Johnson: One of the prime promoters of the sunlit, unicorn-rich uplands that await once Britain has freed itself from the shackles of an EU on the brink of collapse, the former foreign secretary pledged Brexit would permit “continued free trade and access to the single market” while allowing the UK to “take back control of huge sums of money, £350m a week, and spend it on our priorities such as the NHS”. The cost of leaving “would be virtually nil, and the cost of staying would be very high”, he observed during the referendum campaign. And of companies’ more practical concerns about the possible impact on their bottom line, he reportedly remarked: “Fuck business.”By the way, the claim by Boris Johnson that the UK sends £350 million to the EU each week is so patently false that Mr. Johnson now faces prosecution under an obscure law that forbids government employees and politicians from lying to the public.
Now back during Quebec's referendum, Quebec's then Premier Jacques Parizeau was rumoured to have told foreign ambassadors that Quebecers, in the event of a Yes vote in a sovereignty referendum, would be trapped like "lobsters thrown into boiling water?"
I'm sure many who voted YES in the Brexit vote feel liked trapped lobsters now after learning of the difficulty and cost in actually leaving Europe
But Parizeau displayed a certain naiveté in describing the post-referendum negotiations in the victory speech that he never delivered.
"The PQ’s plan was to not declare sovereignty immediately but rather set in motion a year of negotiations with the rest of the country to unravel the relationship in an orderly manner. He describes those talks as a relatively simple affair with Quebec rapidly making Canada an offer for a new economic and political partnership."Simple affair! Tell Theresa May that!
Brexit is the unravelling of an extremely complicated economic union while Quebec sovereignty is the unravelling of an extremely complicated political union.
It seems that in both cases, those militating for change have seriously misled the public in regards to the economic and social upheaval that such a radical change would entail.
Secondly, the idea, widely circulated by the then sovereignty camp, is that Quebec would continue to use the Canadian dollar after independence.
The loss of the Canadian dollar was so pivotal an issue that the pro-sovereignty campaign featured official posters that included the Looney, an oblique promise that the Canadian currency would be the fiat of the new land.
Issues like the promised refusal of Quebec's Cree to accept a YES vote were equally played down or ignored, but given the vast territory controlled by the natives in the North, a certain conflict would be inevitable.
It seems that Brexit boosters have worn the same rose-tinted glasses that Pro-sovereignty supporters wore during the Quebec referendum, playing up the supposed benefits without a whit of concern over the negative aspects.
Today the agony of Brexit is manifest, with all the issues previously swept under the rug or patently ignored rising to the surface and subject to real negotiations.
Hard borders, free access to markets, employment mobility, visa-free travel, standards and measures all have British industry panicked by the lack of agreement.
For Brexit supporters, realizing the reality that there is no 'good' deal to be had with Europe is a shock and surprise, with agonizing and flailing political reactions a sad reminder that the country did not bargain for what it can get.
Support for Brexit has fallen to a minority over these past few years and we can only imagine the catastrophic collapse of support should Great Britain crash out of the EU without a deal.
But making a deal is equally painful, with the negotiated conditions an anathema to hard-line Brexiters.
The first sign of job loss or closed markets of agricultural or industrial output related to a successful Brexit would be staggering, potentially ripping the fabric of society apart.
For Quebec, the Brexit fiasco that is unfolding should serve as a cautionary tale.
While politicians in the UK seek a solution to a Brexit problem that cannot be solved, we are reminded that one cannot have one's cake and eat it too.
For Quebec, the failed referendum is a case of a dodged bullet and all the rose-tinted promises made by pro-sovereignty forces can be best compared to those made by Brexit promoters.
As Britain lurches forward after the YES vote, it is a case of damned if you do and damned if you don't and the future is particularly gloomy.
Hard-line Quebec separatists should take stock of what reality is and the pitfalls of a fool-hearty decision.
I shall perhaps in a future post explore the many obstacles and negative consequences of an independent Quebec, issues that, by the way, were largely ignored in the mainstream press.
In fact, it would take many posts to describe the utter disaster that an independent Quebec would become.
