The Quebec provincial election was not surprising for the fact that pollsters once again got it woefully wrong and miscalculated the popular vote falling outside the famous so-called margin of error of plus or minus 4%. Claiming that their polls are accurate to 4% points nine times out of ten is becoming a recurring joke, as I can't remember when a Quebec election prediction that fell within this norm.
At any rate, the results shouldn't be surprising, Liberal backbenchers and ministerial defections before the election presaged the upcoming Liberal debacle.
But the majority CAQ government is a good thing for federalists as a minority government would be subject to blackmail by the Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire, thus elevating both parties to relevancy and a measure of control.
So federalists should take joy that Quebec Solidaire improved its showing beyond the lunatic fringe, adding disgruntled PQ sovereigntists to the fold, thus splitting the separatist vote, casting both parties into oblivion, having both failed to reach party status. Failing to win twelve seats or twenty percent of the popular vote means that Quebec Solidaire and Parti Quebecois members will have to sit as independents and although the ruling CAQ may grant an exception as has been done in the past, I don't think Francois Legault is in that generous a mood.
But let's dig into the numbers a bit;
Here's how the election actually finished.
As you can clearly see, the CAQ forms a majority government with the Liberals in opposition and both the PQ and QS forced to sit as independents.
But consider if the Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire actually merged as was proposed a while back and that their respective votes were combined.
The assumption isn't a stretch, I can't see any of a combined QS/PQ coalition losing any of it's combined strength to the CAQ or Liberals.
In fact, an alliance of sovereigntists might even attract those apathetic and disgruntled sovereigntist voters who just gave up voting in frustration.
This is what the election results would look like if we were to combine the PQ and QS votes.
And so the QS/PQ alliance would have won party status and a combined 19 seats which is less shabby a performance than what actually happened. The 34% popular vote is respectable and probably lines up with the reality of those who continue to support sovereignty.
But here is the gigantic kicker.
I reviewed the voting tallies riding by riding and if the votes of the PQ and QS were to be combined, it would have significantly affected the outcome in twelve ridings where the CAQ winner would have been upended by the QS/PQ candidate.
Yup, in all of the twelve ridings listed below, the CAQ winner would be replaced by the PQ/QS candidate who polled more combined votes than the actual winner.
For example, in Bourget, the CAQ candidate Richard Campeau, won with just 27.5% of the vote, while the PQ's Mako Kotto lost with 26% of the vote and QS candidate Marlène Lessard lost with 24% of the vote.
Had the PQ and QS votes been united, the riding would have gone to them easily with a vote count of 50.4%
Amazing!
These are the twelve ridings won by the CAQ, that would have gone over to a PQ /QS coalition.
St. Jean
Abitibi-Ouest
Bourget
Gaspé
labelle
Saint-Jean
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Saint-François
Maurice-Richard
Lac-Saint-Jean
Taillon
Ungava
Verchères
If that happened, look at what the National Assembly standing would be today, a minority CAQ government.
Yes, anglos will have no representation in this CAQ government but on the other hand, those Anglos in the former Liberal government were complete sell-outs, kowtowing to the party line which disdained English and Anglophones in general, so it is no real step backward.
As for Francois Legault, it remains to be seen from where he governs from.
Will he stay true to his nature and expose himself as another Doug Ford, or will he moderate and rule closer to the center, albeit from the right side.
I look forward to seeing this government with a free hand and a fresh start and want to officially thank Quebec Solidaire for doing so well, thus paving the way for four years of peaceful, responsible government.
To all the idiots and fools who voted for the wacky and loony Quebec Solidaire, we federalists should all give them a heartfelt thank-you.
As for Francois Legault, it remains to be seen from where he governs from.
Will he stay true to his nature and expose himself as another Doug Ford, or will he moderate and rule closer to the center, albeit from the right side.
I look forward to seeing this government with a free hand and a fresh start and want to officially thank Quebec Solidaire for doing so well, thus paving the way for four years of peaceful, responsible government.
To all the idiots and fools who voted for the wacky and loony Quebec Solidaire, we federalists should all give them a heartfelt thank-you.
