The Quebec provincial election was not surprising for the fact that pollsters once again got it woefully wrong and miscalculated the popular vote falling outside the famous so-called margin of error of plus or minus 4%. Claiming that their polls are accurate to 4% points nine times out of ten is becoming a recurring joke, as I can't remember when a Quebec election prediction that fell within this norm.
At any rate, the results shouldn't be surprising, Liberal backbenchers and ministerial defections before the election presaged the upcoming Liberal debacle.
But the majority CAQ government is a good thing for federalists as a minority government would be subject to blackmail by the Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire, thus elevating both parties to relevancy and a measure of control.
So federalists should take joy that Quebec Solidaire improved its showing beyond the lunatic fringe, adding disgruntled PQ sovereigntists to the fold, thus splitting the separatist vote, casting both parties into oblivion, having both failed to reach party status. Failing to win twelve seats or twenty percent of the popular vote means that Quebec Solidaire and Parti Quebecois members will have to sit as independents and although the ruling CAQ may grant an exception as has been done in the past, I don't think Francois Legault is in that generous a mood.
But let's dig into the numbers a bit;
Here's how the election actually finished.
As you can clearly see, the CAQ forms a majority government with the Liberals in opposition and both the PQ and QS forced to sit as independents.
But consider if the Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire actually merged as was proposed a while back and that their respective votes were combined.
The assumption isn't a stretch, I can't see any of a combined QS/PQ coalition losing any of it's combined strength to the CAQ or Liberals.
In fact, an alliance of sovereigntists might even attract those apathetic and disgruntled sovereigntist voters who just gave up voting in frustration.
This is what the election results would look like if we were to combine the PQ and QS votes.
And so the QS/PQ alliance would have won party status and a combined 19 seats which is less shabby a performance than what actually happened. The 34% popular vote is respectable and probably lines up with the reality of those who continue to support sovereignty.
But here is the gigantic kicker.
I reviewed the voting tallies riding by riding and if the votes of the PQ and QS were to be combined, it would have significantly affected the outcome in twelve ridings where the CAQ winner would have been upended by the QS/PQ candidate.
Yup, in all of the twelve ridings listed below, the CAQ winner would be replaced by the PQ/QS candidate who polled more combined votes than the actual winner.
For example, in Bourget, the CAQ candidate Richard Campeau, won with just 27.5% of the vote, while the PQ's Mako Kotto lost with 26% of the vote and QS candidate Marlène Lessard lost with 24% of the vote.
Had the PQ and QS votes been united, the riding would have gone to them easily with a vote count of 50.4%
Amazing!
These are the twelve ridings won by the CAQ, that would have gone over to a PQ /QS coalition.
St. Jean
Abitibi-Ouest
Bourget
Gaspé
labelle
Saint-Jean
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Saint-François
Maurice-Richard
Lac-Saint-Jean
Taillon
Ungava
Verchères
If that happened, look at what the National Assembly standing would be today, a minority CAQ government.
Yes, anglos will have no representation in this CAQ government but on the other hand, those Anglos in the former Liberal government were complete sell-outs, kowtowing to the party line which disdained English and Anglophones in general, so it is no real step backward.
As for Francois Legault, it remains to be seen from where he governs from.
Will he stay true to his nature and expose himself as another Doug Ford, or will he moderate and rule closer to the center, albeit from the right side.
I look forward to seeing this government with a free hand and a fresh start and want to officially thank Quebec Solidaire for doing so well, thus paving the way for four years of peaceful, responsible government.
To all the idiots and fools who voted for the wacky and loony Quebec Solidaire, we federalists should all give them a heartfelt thank-you.
As for Francois Legault, it remains to be seen from where he governs from.
Will he stay true to his nature and expose himself as another Doug Ford, or will he moderate and rule closer to the center, albeit from the right side.
I look forward to seeing this government with a free hand and a fresh start and want to officially thank Quebec Solidaire for doing so well, thus paving the way for four years of peaceful, responsible government.
To all the idiots and fools who voted for the wacky and loony Quebec Solidaire, we federalists should all give them a heartfelt thank-you.
As a QS voter, I thank You... But The New Republican Government of Quebec is NO Boon for Freedoms and Rights, only for the 1%.... and I won't hold my breath for any help from Ottawa!!!
ReplyDeletePS... QS came in 2nd in NDG... Chew on that for the future!!
One day English Quebec will realize that there is NO salvation from the Liberals, PLQ, or LPC !!
I agree that it could have been worse..having either the QS or PQ holding the balance in a minority government would have been awful.
ReplyDeleteI think Cosmic is right that the la-la-fantasy land musings of the QS will be sucked up more and more by Quebecers who have always had a stronger entitlement mentality than other parts of Canada.
I was a big fan of Legault a few years ago but have been growing more and more dim on him lately. He was woefully unprepared during the election campaign as I believed he took it for granted that he would win easily. His lack of basic understanding on the immigration system, and his lack of clarity on other issues makes me nervous on his abilities to lead Quebec. Hopefully he is surrounded by some brighter bulbs which I believe is the case so this should help him. I hope he is very pragmatic on his changes to government..his idea of 4 year old education seemed idealistic and naive, his stance on immigration was to get the rural nationalist vote but not sure he really believes in it, and his obsession about cutting school taxes is kind of odd also.
It will be practically impossible for him reach even 75 percent of the expectations Quebecers have on him so I suspect it will be very hard for him to win the next election. I think peoples expectations are just plain unrealistic..people want free but great health care, cheap but great CHSLD, high paying jobs, lower taxes, cheap day care, cheap tuition fees, and on and on. Its just not possible especially with a public service and union dominated work force that often does the bare minumum in terms of work ethic.
QS like all socialist parties propose to tax the rich and corporations more yet history has shown over and voer that governments never get nearly as much money as they think from this exercise as the rich just move their money around to avoid paying tax. QS would clearly drive foreign investment out of Quebec with their onerous requirements, taxes, regulations and on and on hence further reducing revenue. So Quebec would have to borrow billions again. QS like the NDP do not understand basic math nor how the real world works..capital moves much more freely from place to place than before and Quebec is already not high on many companies radar for investment.
But I suspect with another recession sometime in the next 4 years Quebecers will fall for the la-la land fantasy from Manon Masse and Gabrial Dubois and they will increase their seat count substantially in 2022..I hope I am wrong.
A 33.6% separatist vote in an era of zero constitutional crisis is incredibly high.
ReplyDelete80% of Quebec's population is francophone. Virtually ALL of that 33.6% came from francophones which, mathematically, means about 42% of francophones voted for separatists.
In the 1995 referendum, 60% of francophones voted "yes."
Give the masses a perceived slight or insult to Quebec (doesn't take much as we know) and that 42% can shoot up, overnight, to well over 60%.
When Pierre Trudeau left office in the mid '80s, support for separatism according to polls was about 14% (or about 20% of francophones). That 20% shot up to 60% as fast as you could say "failure of Meech Lake." And, today, we're at 40%, not 20%.
Separatism is alive and well.
I think a significant part of the QS vote are not separatists per say but very socially progressive people. Everyone knew the QS had no chance of forming government so many extreme socialists voted for the qs..even many young anglophones even though they are seperatists.
DeleteSo I think its simplistic to just add QS and PQ and conclude thats the seperatist vote. Having said that I believe some seperatists voted CAQ.
Its one thing to vote for a seperatist party but another thing to vote Yes in a referendum.
@tony
DeleteI think you're right. basic support for quebec's independance is still high, considering this a period of peace and prosperity. no strikes, low unemployment, etc.
and a crisis is brewing over this state secularity issue. whatever legault will come up with will be shut by canada's supreme court. kaboum. support for independance will rise back to normal.
Tony: Yup, you're right, but I think Mr. Berlach was just looking at the fact there will be some peace for at least the next four years. Back in 1973, 8 constituencies voted PQ, and they're all in the above list of those 12 (13, actually). Bourget, Mainsonneuve-Hochelaga that I think was split or renamed. Then again, maybe not Mostly welfare bums and other assorted good-for-nothing losers primarily. Whatever. Since it is 33.6% of the 80% Joualophone population, your 42% sounds about right.
ReplyDeleteI didn't watch the campaign closely at all. I live in Ontario now, so who cares? Let's see if M. Legault doesn't do his own fed bashing, the favourite pastime of Joualophones. Just hearing this B.S. about expelling immigrants if the don't know enough French is not within their jurisdiction to do. If so, they just have to leave Quebec, not Canada, and I don't think their idea is doable in the first place. Pure gibberish and gobbledygook!
Complicated, it's almost too bad the QS's dog-faced transvestite and her PQ opponent didn't get to be in together. You can only imagine the infighting, plus, paradoxically, Adolf Lisée abandoned the idea of sovereignty altogether in his platform. That makes the PQ tantamount to a vehicle missing a wheel, it's motor, transmission and the steering wheel. That they won any seats at all proves 1/3 of the Quebec electorate would vote for a pregnant retarded cow!
That the QS came in 2nd in NDG is proof positive Quebec is, has been, and even increasingly so in the future will be a loser state. Quebec will be destroyed by a Tsunami--not by a tidal wave of water, but by a tidal wave of village idiots who occupy too much of the jurisdiction to really be village idiots--state idiots, maybe? Ugh!!
Hell, the QS came in second in Westmount. Chew on that for a second.
DeleteQS's dog-faced transvestite ... that's hilarious man... :)
ReplyDeleteGeorge: I call them as I see them.
DeleteToo, isn't she the dog-faced gremlin who reformed the electoral map to concentrate and enlarge the representation in non-Joualophone constituencies, and make Joualophone constituencies with fewer people they know traditionally vote separatist?
Come to think of it, the Republicans are doing exactly that in the U.S. New York and California, the two most populous states with millions upon millions upon millions of voters have only four senators between them while two of the most sparsely populated states, Wyoming and Alaska, also have four senators (i.e., two per state regardless of population) and maybe two million voters between them? Twice now since the turn of the millennium the Dems have had the majority of the votes yet lost because of that stupid electoral college?
Then again, our fearless leader promised the first-past-the-post electoral system would be done with by the next federal election, and we know how well that went!!! Twice in history the PLQ won by the popular vote yet lost the two times.
As Winston Churchill once said "Democracy is the worst ideology, except for all the rest".
Well, it's hard for me to see any positive spin on the election of the CAQ. Although I did take much glee and joy in watching the PQ implode! Or did they really...?
ReplyDeleteYears ago, right here in these comment sections, I said the CAQ was merely the Parti Quebecois in a Trojan horse, or a separatist wolf in federalist sheep's clothing. And it looks like that wolf is already starting to peek out from under its disguise! They haven't even been sworn in yet but already declaring they will ban the wearing of hijabs, kappas, turbans, head scarfs, eliminate English school boards, toughen up Bill 101, restrict immigration and evict new comers who cannot pass a French test...AND when it's deemed an infringement on human rights by the courts, use the Not Withstanding Clause to push it all through!
There is no federalist party in Quebec, we have the PQ Classic, PQ Lite, PQ Extreme and PQ Gluten-free (or what you guys refer to as the PQ, Liberals, CAQ and QS). Now we've elected the "PQ Extreme", a far right version of the PQ.
Personally I don't see any Quebec party as a viable one. They're all the same, just different quantities of the same poison. It's just a question of which one will sink and kill the province faster. Yeah, I'm pretty cynical when it comes to Quebec politics, but it's pretty hard not to be when you've been watching the same old crap your entire life.
Just a reminder to anyone who says "but the CAQ is a federalist party!". It was only a couple of elections ago that Francois Legault said he would have a 10 year moratorium on a referendum. NOT scrapping the notion of separation, just delaying it. And if you go back 20 years ago, he was a PQ MNA all for separation (and very racist too I might add, to quote a 1998 speech: "and I hate the English as much as you do."). He may fool others, but I don't believe he's changed. Not one bit. Wait and see for proof of that...
Sorry, Apple, but we're now into the 45th year post-Bill 22, and all its ugly iterations (1 (defeated), 101, 178, 86, 40 (defeated), 103, 104...) Have I forgotten any? The only thing that appears to have changed is that while separatism isn't dead, it has survived the generation that lived through the Quiet Revolution. They were the most vindictive ones, but not unlike those country bumpkins in the southern U.S., they pass the hate down intergenerationally, so you'll have rumblings here and there over separatism.
DeleteAnyway, don't fret over Legault's yakkety yak yak! It will be impossible to expel anyone from Quebec who doesn't want to leave whether they pass a French exam or not. I'm working with a bunch of bilingual Africans from the North, West and Central Africa, from the Franco-phoney countries. Looks like Micaelle Jean is going to be removed from her post because, like when she was Gov-Gen, she was very generous with herself on taxpayer's money. Finally, the crash-test dummy camouflaging as our prime minister is getting the message, but it takes one to know one!