For years Quebec separatist journalists have been bemoaning the fact that immigration has upset the linguistic and demographic balance of Montreal with old-stock francophones seeing their demographic weight reduced year after year to the effect that Quebec is being cleaved linguistically and culturally into two distinct camps...Montreal versus the ROQ (Rest of Quebec.)The 'boiling frog fable' describes a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise being that if a frog is suddenly thrust into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in cold water which is then brought to a boil gradually, it will not perceive the danger and will be slowly cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of sinister threats that arise gradually rather than suddenly. Wikipedia
Those prescient predictions have largely fallen on deaf ears as the Quebec Liberals while in power have ignored the shift because it served its electoral purpose as the immigrants voted massively for their party, In the recent provincial election, the Liberals retained 19 out of 25 seats on the island, proof that despite the CAQ blowout in the rest of the province, Montreal marches to a different tune.
The new Premier, true to his roots and his old-stock francophone base in the ROQ, felt emboldened to launch the first volley in the war on Montreal by attacking religious garb, something that already brought down the PQ in the past, in its own futile and disastrous attempt to put minorities in their place.
With an impressive election victory in hand and no political obligation to Montreal, the new Premier, feeling his oats, is foolishly choosing to go after Montreal ethnics, rewarding his base with an attack on 'les autres.' It certainly played well in the boonies, not so much in Montreal.
For Legault, there seems to be no political downside to the attack.
He could not be more wrong.
For those who want to see Montreal become the 11th province, things couldn't be working out better, where the accrued polarization of Montreal and the ROQ is the prelude to the separation of Montreal from Quebec.
For those who pooh-pooh the very idea that Montreal could ever separate from Quebec, let me remind them that monumental political change sometimes happens rather abruptly, like the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union or the fall of the Berlin Wall leading to the reunification of Germany.
Where the symptoms of disaffection brew for decades, the final act may seem surprising, when it is anything but.
No one can dispute that Montreal and Quebec are headed on separate political courses and the election of the CAQ, wholly siding with one side will serve only to exacerbate the cleavage between the two as demographic forces in Montreal play out where the weight of old-school francophones is diminishing each year.
The quick rejection in Montreal of Legault's new policy on religious garb wasn't unexpected and the demonstrations that greeted the announcement may have been satisfying for Legault and his supporters because he and the CAQ believe that it is a fight in which they will prevail, a huge political win for his base which has hankered to put Montreal, its Anglos and ethnics in their place for some time.
But the victory over religious garb may actually be Pyrrhic in nature and like British Townshend Acts which imposed taxes on staples like tea in the American colonies, it may well serve only to inflame independence aspirations in Montreal.
The harsher the treatment of Montreal ethnics and Anglos, (something that the CAQ base relishes) the further along Montreal veers towards independence.
Even Montreal's current leftist mayor, Valerie Plante, herself no fan of federalism, feels impelled to walk a fine line, defending and opposing the CAQ plan at the same time.
But should Montreal elect a truly federalist mayor next election, it will set the scene for some mighty fireworks between Montreal and the Quebec government, with Legault's freedom to attack Montreal seriously challenged.
A Montreal mayor demanding special status will send shock waves through the political establishment in Quebec and like Canada in its dealings with an ornery Quebec, decisions will have to be made to either placate Montreal's demands for special treatment or run the risk of sovereignty.
It is a delicious prospect that I cannot wait for and certainly a case of just desserts.
The CAQ seems to have a free hand in dealing with Montreal now, but Legault would be smart to be prudent.
Montreal remains the economic engine and the heart of Quebec, with the wherewithal to become the 11th province should it choose so.
Pushed too hard, Montreal with its clearly defined borders can easily fend for itself as a province, something that would be massively supported in the rest of Canada.
Quebec nationalists who believe that this should never be allowed to happen under any circumstances and that Montreal belongs to Quebec, need to understand that those who live by the sword can also die by the sword.
With the demographic shift marching onward, a 50% +1 vote by those living on the island on Montreal to leave Quebec and become Canada's eleventh province can be a reality within a decade.
The new province would enjoy instant Canadian and international recognition.
So if Legault, the CAQ and its base plan to pound Montreal into becoming another Quebec City forcing the anglos and ethics to adopt the French language exclusively, abandoning their religion and singing 'Alouette' while changing their diet to steamed hot dogs, poutine and maple syrup, they are bound for miserable shock.
Montreal is not Quebec city and never will be. It is and will continue to evolve as cosmopolitan, urbane and diverse city, worthy of international stature.
Those in the CAQ and their old-stock francophone supporters in the boonies that think that they can force Montreal into becoming the backwater that the ROQ is, are doomed to failure.
So let François Legault, the eager-beaver Premier, have his fun as he takes power believing he can reshape Montreal.
It won't take long before he realizes the limitations of his power and if he dares to play rough, it is he who will be burned.
Like George III and his Parliament found out, passing oppressive and unpopular legislation from afar, forces the imposed upon to decide whether to obey or revolt.
Montreal is too strong to acquiesce to redneck laws that are out of touch with its reality and so sooner or later, Legault may find himself facing a Montreal version of the Boston Tea Party.
The new Premier, true to his roots and his old-stock francophone base in the ROQ, felt emboldened to launch the first volley in the war on Montreal by attacking religious garb, something that already brought down the PQ in the past, in its own futile and disastrous attempt to put minorities in their place.
With an impressive election victory in hand and no political obligation to Montreal, the new Premier, feeling his oats, is foolishly choosing to go after Montreal ethnics, rewarding his base with an attack on 'les autres.' It certainly played well in the boonies, not so much in Montreal.
For Legault, there seems to be no political downside to the attack.
He could not be more wrong.
For those who want to see Montreal become the 11th province, things couldn't be working out better, where the accrued polarization of Montreal and the ROQ is the prelude to the separation of Montreal from Quebec.
For those who pooh-pooh the very idea that Montreal could ever separate from Quebec, let me remind them that monumental political change sometimes happens rather abruptly, like the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union or the fall of the Berlin Wall leading to the reunification of Germany.
Where the symptoms of disaffection brew for decades, the final act may seem surprising, when it is anything but.
No one can dispute that Montreal and Quebec are headed on separate political courses and the election of the CAQ, wholly siding with one side will serve only to exacerbate the cleavage between the two as demographic forces in Montreal play out where the weight of old-school francophones is diminishing each year.
The quick rejection in Montreal of Legault's new policy on religious garb wasn't unexpected and the demonstrations that greeted the announcement may have been satisfying for Legault and his supporters because he and the CAQ believe that it is a fight in which they will prevail, a huge political win for his base which has hankered to put Montreal, its Anglos and ethnics in their place for some time.
But the victory over religious garb may actually be Pyrrhic in nature and like British Townshend Acts which imposed taxes on staples like tea in the American colonies, it may well serve only to inflame independence aspirations in Montreal.
The harsher the treatment of Montreal ethnics and Anglos, (something that the CAQ base relishes) the further along Montreal veers towards independence.
Even Montreal's current leftist mayor, Valerie Plante, herself no fan of federalism, feels impelled to walk a fine line, defending and opposing the CAQ plan at the same time.
"I'm in favour of neutrality of the State, but this bill is ill-conceived. The government must go back to the drawing board"Mayor Plante seems also to be advancing the idea of Montreal as a nation-state, having taken the remarkable decision to remove the Quebec flag from municipal buildings.
But should Montreal elect a truly federalist mayor next election, it will set the scene for some mighty fireworks between Montreal and the Quebec government, with Legault's freedom to attack Montreal seriously challenged.
A Montreal mayor demanding special status will send shock waves through the political establishment in Quebec and like Canada in its dealings with an ornery Quebec, decisions will have to be made to either placate Montreal's demands for special treatment or run the risk of sovereignty.
It is a delicious prospect that I cannot wait for and certainly a case of just desserts.
The CAQ seems to have a free hand in dealing with Montreal now, but Legault would be smart to be prudent.
Montreal remains the economic engine and the heart of Quebec, with the wherewithal to become the 11th province should it choose so.
Pushed too hard, Montreal with its clearly defined borders can easily fend for itself as a province, something that would be massively supported in the rest of Canada.
Quebec nationalists who believe that this should never be allowed to happen under any circumstances and that Montreal belongs to Quebec, need to understand that those who live by the sword can also die by the sword.
With the demographic shift marching onward, a 50% +1 vote by those living on the island on Montreal to leave Quebec and become Canada's eleventh province can be a reality within a decade.
The new province would enjoy instant Canadian and international recognition.
So if Legault, the CAQ and its base plan to pound Montreal into becoming another Quebec City forcing the anglos and ethics to adopt the French language exclusively, abandoning their religion and singing 'Alouette' while changing their diet to steamed hot dogs, poutine and maple syrup, they are bound for miserable shock.
Montreal is not Quebec city and never will be. It is and will continue to evolve as cosmopolitan, urbane and diverse city, worthy of international stature.
Those in the CAQ and their old-stock francophone supporters in the boonies that think that they can force Montreal into becoming the backwater that the ROQ is, are doomed to failure.
So let François Legault, the eager-beaver Premier, have his fun as he takes power believing he can reshape Montreal.
It won't take long before he realizes the limitations of his power and if he dares to play rough, it is he who will be burned.
Like George III and his Parliament found out, passing oppressive and unpopular legislation from afar, forces the imposed upon to decide whether to obey or revolt.
Montreal is too strong to acquiesce to redneck laws that are out of touch with its reality and so sooner or later, Legault may find himself facing a Montreal version of the Boston Tea Party.
