Quebec voters, unlike Canadians outside the province, have always been volatile with little brand loyalty.
Take for example the great Bloc Quebecois wave of 2000 and 2004 where they elected 54 MPs from Quebec with 49% of the popular vote as well as the Orange crush of of 2011 where the NDP wave took 59 of the 75 Quebec seats with an 43% of the popular vote.
Commentators and pundit who predict the demise of Maxime Bernier and his descent into obscurity are either dead wrong or whistling through the graveyard.
Maxime Bernier arrives on the political scene in Quebec at the most opportune moment, with voters itching for a new face and a new ideology.
With the Bloc in its death throes and the shine off the Trudeau apple, voters are desperate for a choice, one that Bernier fits to a tee. That support will transcend English/French lines as well as federalist/separatist ideology.
First let us look at the sovereigntists and soft nationalists, who understand that the Bloc is a spent force, and who now see Bernier as the only legitimate defender of Quebec culture, a stalwart against forced multiculturalism of the federal Liberals.
To hard and soft nationalists alike, the notion that if they are to be stuck in Canada, a party that defends traditional Quebec culture in Quebec as well as traditional Canadian culture in the ROC is a compromise made in Heaven.
Those remaining Bloc MPS already understand that an independent Quebec is no longer an option and so most, if not all, would jump to support a Bernier party.
Bernier would be careful to demand that BQ MPs publicly disavow sovereignty before allowing them into the party and I'm sure those who wish to preserve their cushy jobs in Ottawa would make the pragmatic decision to do so.
There are many Canadians who support Bernier's view on preserving Canadian culture and the danger of a European type of illegal immigrant invasion. This percentage is even a higher in Quebec.
Justin Trudeau's branding those who wish to preserve the Canadian identity as it is as intolerant, is already alienating Quebec voters who refuse to be insulted because they fear that their Quebecois culture being eroded by uncheck illegal immigration.
It is a much bigger issue than anyone in the federal Liberals understand because it touches two raw nerves, protecting traditional Quebec identity and law and order.
Quebecers have always been a people of law and order and throughout the tumultuous years of the independence movement, have never shown an inkling of support for lawlessness or upheaval.
The idea that foreigners can traipse over the border with impunity, while regular Canadians must put up with interminable line-up at the border crossing in order return home from vacation is utterly unacceptable.
Bernier's deep conservatism, his opposition supply management and call for an end to government subsidies may in theory hurt him in Quebec, but it won't.
While the organized unions and dairy farmers will cackle, ordinary Quebecers will ignore their entreaties, with the issue of defending Quebec's French identity in Canada as the over-riding issue of the election.
Let us remember that the Bloc Quebecois wave and the subsequent NDP wave were both predicated on the defence of traditional Quebec culture and language.
The last election saw Quebecers caught up in Trudeaumania like the rest of the country. While Trudeau's support is slipping, but holding in Canada, Quebec is a different story where Trudeau is fast gaining a reputation as selling out Quebec to immigrants.
As for the NDP, its already weakening support in Quebec is further collapsing because of their new leader, Jagmeet Singh, a character who represents what the majority of Quebecers loathe, foreign religious orthodoxy.
Bernier is an extremely popular figure who will get re-elected in his home riding no matter what the party affiliation. His status as a favourite son and staunch defender of traditional Quebec and Canadian culture is the one and only issue that matters federally.
And so it seems that the stars are aligned for Bernier who perhaps realizes what the pundits are incapable of understanding.
When I say Bernier can win 30-40 seats in Quebec, I am being conservative, with the Liberal fortress Montreal and Laval, just about the only safe ridings for the Liberals.
As for a Bernier political party in the rest of Canada, the decision to run candidates will be difficult and I shall leave that discussion for another blog post, but there is a scenario whereby Bernier can actually insure a Scheer Conservative government through coalition.
As for the pundits predicting the premature political death of Bernier, consider their track record where none were able to foretell seismic shifts in Quebec voter intentions.
