I have a bit of trouble taking these opinions seriously because none of these so-called experts predicted any of this beforehand!
It's a bit like all those mavens on CNBC that explained why Wall Street collapsed... after the fact!
Before the last federal election, not one expert and pundit breathed a word about the imminent fall of separatist support, so I wouldn't put much stock in what they have to say today.
We all know about hindsight...
Public opinion has always been volatile in Quebec and prone to wild swings in direction, sometimes seemingly overnight. Predicting or explaining these 'virages' is an exercise is futility.
I've been asked on a number of occasions why these volatile political mood swings occur almost exclusively in Quebec.
After careful consideration it is my considered opinion that the phenomenon is based largely on media influence, which is much more focused and profound in Quebec, based on the limited media choices Quebeckers have.
Typically a Quebec French language TV news and information show will have six times as large an audience (on a pro-rated basis) as that of a comparable program on English Canadian TV.
Simply put, because of this narrow media exposure, Quebeckers are apt to change positions and reach a newly-formed consensus much more rapidly than English Canada.
It has been postulated by experts, more attuned than I, that Jack Layton's wildly popular appearance on a Radio-Canada, Sunday night talk-show, where he was fawned over by obliging hosts, sealed the deal and concretisied the NDP victory in Quebec.
Years ago, my job as an operations manager had me travelling around Eastern Canada on an ongoing basis.
In Quebec I'd always ask the first francophone employee I met, which show they watched on TV last night. I then would use it as a conversation starter with all the people I'd meet during the day.
"Hello, what did you think of "LES FILLES DE CALEB?" Invariably, most had watched the same show the evening before!
You could never pull that off with English employees who have access to dozens of choices of original programming on a multitude of networks and thus are much more likely to be influenced by a much wider panoply of opinions.
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For as long as I can remember, Quebeckers have been proudly supportive of the Asbestos industry, a solid job provider and steady income producer.
But in a matter of a few short months that opinion has largely changed. A few negative television documentaries has had a devastating impact on public opinion. TV pundits, the few that there are, have gone negative on the subject.
Support for the industry has collapsed and is now relegated to those with vested interests and some self-delusional holdouts who maintain that the product remains safe and needs only a few safety tweaks to remain viable.
Sounds a bit like sovereignty doesn't it?
What was so good for so long is no longer in vogue.
Sovereignty, like asbestos, has had a precipitous fall from grace. A few unflattering documentaries, a few negative television shows and the sovereignty ideology that was a pillar for decades is now looked upon with disdain.
And so there is no road back for asbestos and there is no road back for sovereignty, they are relics of the past.
They may linger on for a few short years, but the writing is on the wall.
We know that safety concerns is what is killing asbestos, but I haven't heard a convincing argument as to what is killing sovereignty.
And so gentle reader, I offer you an alternative theory, which I shall transmit via an allegory, not quite the quality of Alice in Wonderland, but an honest attempt just the same;
Imagine if you please, a young aspiring actor, fresh from acting school, ready to conquer the world. With the enthusiasm of youth and the idealism of the uninitiated, she ventures out on auditions and casting calls, only to be disappointed time after time.
She lands a few minor roles, which only serve to whet her appetite, while the big breakthrough that she's expecting, remains elusively around the corner.
As much as she loves her craft, success is taking too long. She becomes impatient and restless.
Then remarkably, after years of disappointment, she gets the role of a lifetime, but alas, is devastated when the show collapses in front of her eyes.
After pulling herself together, she perseveres, convinced that if it almost happened once, it could happen again.
The years go by. She gets older and wiser. Her looks fade and the odds of her landing it big, become more and more remote.
Her dream is tattered but not dead. She still burns with desire to succeed, but time is grinding her down. After another few months, realty sets in.
Not knowing any other life, she soldiers on for a time, but eventually loses her ardour. She misses a few auditions and then finally stops trying at all.
Tired and drained, beaten down by the years of disappointment, she comes to the sad realization which leads to a fateful decision;
"I love acting, but I just can't do this anymore. Dreams don't always come true and so it's time to move on. I'll always be an actor, but sadly, I'm done."
And so readers, 40% of the Quebeckers who are sovereigntists didn't become federalists overnight.
...They've just given up.
