Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Camille Laurin, Anglo Enemy Honoured- Ouch!

Many years ago, business took me to the town of St. Georges-de-Beauce, south of Quebec City. As I drove through the town, I did a double take when I happened by a hotel with the unlikely name of 'Auberge Benedict Arnold.'
Now for those of you who don't know, Benedict Arnold was a general in the in the American Continental Army who switched sides and fought for the British during the American Revolutionary War. In America (and parts of Canada) it is common to call someone who betrays you, a 'Benedict Arnold.'
I guess it's not surprising that one country's traitor can be another country's hero, but I wonder if visiting American guests would feel weird about staying in a hotel named for an national villain. (I don't think I'd like to stay in the 'Hitler Hotel').

Well I guess I don't have to wonder anymore, because the Office Québécois de la Langue Française (OQLF) is renaming it's Montreal head office after the father of Bill 101, the infamous Dr. Camille Laurin.

Bill 101 (La Charte de la langue française) is the law passed in 1977 that made French the official language of the Province of Quebec and otherwise curtailed English rights.
There isn't a figure in Quebec language history who is as much reviled by anglophones, as is the good doctor (Louise Beaudoin is a distant second.)

While Rene Levesque viewed the language law as a necessary evil, Laurin, an unmitigated hard-liner, enjoyed dropping the hammer on the English community. His stern face and the nasty clipped delivery of his pronouncements made his message that much harder to swallow.

Now every time I drive by the location (125, Sherbrooke Street, West, Montreal) I'll know exactly what Americans feel like when they see the Benedict Arnold hotel.
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Monday, March 16, 2009

Quebec's Yo-Yo Gas Prices Unjustified



It's good to see gas prices down, but those annoying spikes that see prices jump by ten percent in a single day seems a bit over the top. This price volatility isn't justified. The people over at gasbuddy.com have all sorts of graphing tools and I've created one that compares Montreal gas prices to two random American cities, Austin, Texas and Balitmore, Maryland. Aside from the striking difference in price (we're paying almost double the price), look how stable and gradual price movements are in the US.

The pattern here is a large jump followed by a gradual followed decline. My research indicated that this pattern occurs all across Canada, but not in the USA. I think our retailers have some explaining to do...

You can beat these spikes by filling up regularly when the price is stable. Then you can ride out the couple of days after a spike, until the price falls again.

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Bernard Landry's Big Lie.


In his attack against the nomination of Michael Sabia, ex-sovereignist Premier Bernard Landry continues to hammer away with the point that Mr. Sabia was the author of the attempt to sell his old company, Bell Canada Enterprises to Ontario based Teacher's Pension Fund.

The charge has been championed in the blogesphere but not in main stream media, probably because it is patently false.

"Le problème, c’est sa culture nationalecanadian. Cet homme était le dernier profil à choisir pour diriger cette institution. Le gouvernement commet une sorte de provocation. Il a été l’artisan du transfert à Toronto de Bell Canada Entreprises, un des fleurons de l’appareil décisionnel et économique de Montréal."

"The problem is his culture ...Canadian. This man presents the worse profile to lead this institution. The government is committing somewhat of a provocation. He was the artist of the transfer of Bell Canada Enterprises to Toronto, a economic and decision making flower." (my translation)
— Bernard Landry

The statement that Michael Sabia was the author of the attempt by Teacher's to buy BCE is false and Mr. Landry knows it, yet continues to repeat the lie for political effect.

As an economist on RDI pointed out (she also didn't like the appointment, but based her objection on Sabia's record ) BCE was the subject of a hostile takeover (A hostile takeover is an acquisition in which the company being purchased doesn't want to be purchased, or doesn't want to be purchased by the particular buyer that is making a bid.)

Anyone familiar with the situation knows that Mr. Sabia fought the takeover, but was ultimately forced to seek maximum benefit for his shareholders, as a fiduciary duty.

While Bernard Landry makes political hay over this gross misinterpretation of the facts, he conveniently forgets to remind taxpayers of the one fact that is unassailable.

It was he who made the appointment of Henri-Paul Rousseau, as President of the Caisse, the author of the 40 billion dollar debacle!

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Quebec Minister Spreads Nonsense Alzheimer's Statistics

A news story on TV last night about Alzheimer's had my wife and I scratching our heads.

In a press conference held by Marguerite Blais, (Quebec's Minister responsible for the elderly) she announced a $200 million fund to help Alzheimer's care-givers. You can read a French account of the Laval press conference Here.

The Minister cited the need for these funds because, according to her, fully one in five baby-boomers will develop Alzheimer's before the year 2020.

Whoa....
"That can't be right" commented my wife. "Did she really say one in five?"

"Dunno' I said, "Let's back up the PVR"

Yup, the Minister is quoted as saying that 20% percent of boomers will get the dreaded disease and will do so within 11 years.

So off it was to Google to check out the facts. Perhaps the Minister should do so as well, before she shoots off her mouth.

"Based on a recent report prepared by the Government Accounting Office and sent to Congress, and the National Vital Statistics Reports, prepared by the National Center for Health Statistics, we estimate the following lifetime risks for the average person from age 50 through 90;

If you
are now age

Your lifetime risk
is only

Odds that you
won't get Alzheimers





50
55
60

4.4%
4.6%
4.8%

95.6%
95.4%
95.2%





65
70
75

5.1%
6.6%
8.9%

94.9%
93.4%
91.1%





80
85
90

10.6%
12.2%
17.9%

89.4%
87.8%
82.1%


Okay that sounds a lot better, but let's check out one more source.
The Alzheimer's Association has a slight higher set of numbers which shows that women are twice as likely as men to get the disease. A average of both numbers indicates that people over 55 have 13% risk of developing the disease over the balance of their lifetime.



Incidentally, all these statistics relate to people who have already reached an age of 55, because there are no reliable lifetime statistics in existence.

So back to the minister.
According to the Alzheimer's Association, if you're 55 (baby boomer), you've got a 13% chance of getting the disease over the rest of your entire life (You could live to 100). The chances for a you developing the disease in your first eleven years after 55 (as the Minister suggested), is probably no greater that 4%, roughly.

A final note on the disease.

The notion of the drooling idiot with post-it notes stuck on everything in the house is not the case for most people with the disease.
Cases range from mild to severe.







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Louise Harel Shoots Herself in the Foot



If Louise Harel is thinking about making a run for the Montreal mayoralty job this fall, she can forget about it now, after making some injudicious remarks about the city's minorities.

“If we go from 19 to 10 boroughs, but these boroughs remain quasi-municipalities as they are now, we will end up in the worst of situations because we’ll have cities … an Italian city, a Haitian city, an anglophone city, an Arab city - Ville St. Laurent, a Jewish city, etc. We will no longer have this sense of one big city with boroughs that speaks with one voice.”
-Lousie Harel
I'm going to give her credit for not being a racist, because an experienced racist would probably be more tactful. But the statement, like it or not, comes off racist and even if she didn't mean it to be so, she's stuck with the result.

Had she chosen her words more carefully and said something along the lines that she would like to see the city develop in a way whereby members of all communities live together as one, rather than being ghettoized, nobody would have said a peep. It's a legitimate position that some may agree with and some may not.

Describing an 'Arab city,' 'Haitian city' or 'Jewish city' as something undesirable is bound to elicit a negative reaction. She should have known it.

When majorities talk about minorities, they have to be very careful. Context is everything.

A friend of mine once told me that he was insulted by a comment made by a politician as they shook hands upon being introduced.
What did the politician say?" I asked.

"Ah, you Italians are wonderful cooks." he replied.

"Doesn't sound insulting to me. What was the matter?"

"I didn't like the term 'You Italians' " hmm...
And so unfortunately for Madame Harel, she is stigmatized. In certain minority communities, the racist label won't wash off and if she's foolish enough to run for mayor, she'll get trounced. She probably has the same chance of winning the mayor's job of Montreal as does Dave Ahenakew, of winning the top job in Cote-St.Luc.

Our beloved Mayor Tremblay is crossing his fingers, hoping that she'll run, so that he can remind the 50% of Montrealers who's mother tongue is other than French of her true 'racist nature.'

Yes, Louise, stick a fork in you, you're done.
Better get yourself a nice safe government job in Quebec city where these types of statements are not only tolerated but encouraged.

And to you Mr. Angry French Guy blogger, stop crying over spilt milk. Stop blaming Anglos and the Gazette for her problems. Of course the newspapers, particularly the English ones are having a field day with the story, but the truth is that this mortal wound is self-inflicted.