Thursday, April 21, 2011

Federalists Help Elect Separatists

The new found strength of the Ndp in Quebec doesn't seem to translate into many new seats with the Bloc Quebecois apparently set to hold onto a number of seats by the skin of their teeth due to the federalist vote splitting.
Looking at the numbers tells us that there are several Bloc ridings that could easily be won by a federalist party, should they only combine forces.

In all but a handfull of Quebec ridings in the 2008 election the federalist parties garnered more votes than the Bloc, but because of vote-splitting the Bloc won over two-thirds of the seats with less than 40% of the vote.

As things stand now, they are set to win just about as many seats, but with support down to the 34% level, if the latest polls are to be believed.

André Arthur
Withdrawing a candidate and leaving the field open to a 'favoured' enemy, is a strategy rarely invoked in Canada, but it is not unheard of. In the last election the Conservatives did not run anyone in Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier, allowing independant, André Arthur to squeak in ahead of the Bloc candidate. Once again in this election, the Conservatives are adopting this pragmatic approach, choosing to have an ally outside the party, rather than a Bloc member.

The only problem about withdrawing a candidate in favour of another party is that you must be confident that the votes will go where you want them to go.
This was a no-brainer for the Conservatives in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, few of their supporters were apt to vote Liberal and even if some of their supporters bled to the Bloc, the vast majority went to Arthur.

Between the three major federalist parties, withdrawing a candidate in favour of another party's runner makes sense only for the Ndp and Liberals. It is natural that should an Ndp candidate stand down, support would move massively to the Liberals and vice-versa.
It'd be hard to predict where the Conservative support would go should they adopt a stand-down policy and perhaps many Conservatives would choose not to vote rather than vote Liberal or Ndp.

That being said, let's look at some Bloc ridings that would go federalist, would the NDP and Liberals cooperate by pulling one candidate or another. I'm using data from yesterday's projections as reported by Threehundredeight.com.


Here's a look at at ten ridings that could be be taken back from the Bloc by combining the Liberal and NDP vote;


There are another five or six ridings that are close.

While cooperation would seem to be mutually beneficial, it seems that the natural competitiveness makes it hard to put into practice.
In the hotly contested riding of Gatineau the Liberals are accused of trying to smear, Francoise Boivin, the former Liberal MP and now NDP candidate, who is actually leading the incumbent Bloc candidate.
"New Democrat Leader Jack Layton accused the Liberals of playing dirty tricks against one of his star candidates in Quebec and called it a sign of desperation....
.....Montreal newspaper Le Devoir reported Tuesday that Boivin did not actually leave the party for ideological reasons as she has previously stated, but because she hired a woman to work in her office the Liberals say was her same-sex partner and then refused to acknowledge she had broken the rules." LINK
Look up at the table and you'll see that if in fact Miss Boivin's support drops because of the allegations, it'll be the Bloc candidate who'll be the winner, even if the lost NDP vote goes to the Liberals!

Cooperation? Oh well...... just dreaming.

25 comments:

  1. As an English speaking Allo, I would definately not ever vote for NDP which is really a bloc Quebecois light in Quebec. Hopefully the NDP takeaway enough vote from the Bloc Quebecois that the Federal Liberals and convervatives who have concentrated votes in certain regions of Quebec, win through a 3 or 4 way split. I can see the Liberals take away a few seats from the bloc. I really want to see UNCLE THOM MULCLAIR lose his seat to the liberals. If allos and anglos are made aware that the NDP is a bloc reincarnation maybe we can get a Liberal victories in some ridings.

    I am not a Liberal supporter, just like the conservatives they take Anglo/allo support for granted. The only positive thing about the Liberals is, that with support for family immigration, the trickle down effect helps quebec get more diluted, that helps give Anglo and allo quebecers more of a buffer.

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  2. @ Anon 8:01 AM

    Dream on, the liberals are currently at 13% in Québec. Yes, 13%. Their brand is dead for francophones, and the NDP is trying to replace them without the baggage. I'm skeptical as to weather that support will hold or not. Their main advantage is that the Bloc will find it hard to find something to attack. Layton is freindly and innofensive, and the NDP has had no influence on policies toward Québec.

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  3. "The only positive thing about the Liberals is, that with support for family immigration, the trickle down effect helps quebec get more diluted."

    Bravo!Façon très intelligente de rendre la situation des immigrants plus sympathique aux yeux des Québécois.C'est la bonne méthode afin d'encourager le parti Québécois a fermer les valves de l'immigration ou de sélectionner des arrivants avec des Q.I un peu plus élevés que le vôtre.

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  4. The Liberals are the only party that has promised to build a new Champlain bridge. They got my vote.

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  5. Press 9,

    It doesn't make a difference. Trying to make Quebecois sympathetic to immigrants or anglos is any oxymoron. When Anglos and Allos get a demographic leverage, like becoming a Majority on Montreal island and to the Ontario border, and threat of partition. That would make Quebecois alot more "sympathetic". Then the constant bending over the expect.

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  6. @anon 8:51

    IF that 13% concentration is in anglo and allo areas, then the 4 way split might actually gain Liberals and conservatives seats. Francophones had mostly abandoned liberals anyway, but right now the Bloc is losing most of its core support.

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  7. In fact, all the big political party said they want to reconstruct the Pont Champlain.....not only the Liberals...

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  8. @ Anon 11:56

    Anglo and allo areas ARE mostly Liberal seats, in Montreal, and they have truly no hope of progress in Québec until they change their identity, for example by merging with the NDP like the Cons merged with the Reform.

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  9. "When Anglos and Allos get a demographic leverage..."

    Vous n'étiez que 12 a la "manifestation" contre la Loi 101.Wow!Quelle complicité entre allos et anglos.Ils vous manquent quelques éléments essentiels afin conquérir Montréal et une de ceux-ci est l'unicité.Ça part mal!

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  10. Anonymous said...
    In fact, all the big political party said they want to reconstruct the Pont Champlain.....not only the Liberals...

    Great. Like a bunch of pathetic johns vying to rent the "love" of an aging hooker. I hope if it gets built that there will at least be a nice plaque saying that it was built with the gracious donations from taxpayers in the ROC.

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  11. @harpon

    12 is a start. Maybe better organization involving students might bring more next time. But whatever the case. The results speak for themselves. Montreal Island is now majority anglo and allo. IT reflects in the voting trends.

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. @Press 9 to Anonymous

    "Bravo! C'est la bonne méthode afin d'encourager le parti Québécois a fermer les valves de l'immigration ou de sélectionner des arrivants avec des Q.I un peu plus élevés que le vôtre."

    Ouf bien envoyé dans les chicklets.
    Mais que veux-tu, Anonymous-allophone va voter Libéral pour le "Pont Champlain" et contre les Québécois fondateurs.
    C'est de la "haute voltige intellectuelle et politique".
    Malheureusement il y a aussi des Québécois de souche aussi stupides que Anonymous.

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  14. " La doctrine-Trudeau (le grand traître) du multiculturalisme entraîne la non-intégration des immigrants à qui elle permet de conserver à 100% leur ancien mode de vie, maintenant que chaque grande ville comporte ses enclaves-ghettos barbelées (exemple le ghetto chinois de Montréal) où chaque ethnie peut s’accroître en nombre constant et y vivre en vase clos, avec le moins de contact possible avec la société d’accueil."

    http://www.vigile.net/Apres-l-echec-du-multiculturalisme

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  15. @Anonymous

    With you revealing to be an anglo allo, i'm seizing you much better now.
    If you hate Quebec and its founders that much, then MOVE to any of the 59 anglos states in north america and stop whining.

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  16. @Anonymous

    RE: I meant that francos in Canada might be staying there because they prefer to stick to the ANGLO majority, like any good sheep.

    "Anglos were a minority in Quebec for many years but they didn't leave until..."

    RE: Until first election of independentist Parti Québécois in 1976. They left (thank God!) For two reasons: 1. They FEARED they'd have to learn french (they didn't have to (ethnocentric chickens), 2. They no more felt they were the leading minority and in their own place, and by jove they were right!

    "You like living in the distant past don't you?"
    RE: Quebec motto is "Je me souviens", and you damn right we do remember, for example the 1982 treason from Trudeau with YOUR Bloody Queen. BTW the franco metis' oppressors' descendants also remember.

    "In sixty years of broadcasts, no one on English television has ever
    called Francophones "frogs" or "pea soups."
    RE: Liar, or ignorant. I rest my case.

    "The Quebecois survived with their language and culture intact for over 200 years without Bill 101."
    RE: And they rightly took over after that. Still, they ARE disappearing. So i's légitime défense. Again: WHAT are so afraid of?

    "And their proportion of the population has remained steady around 80%"
    RE: In Quebec yest, but in Canada they went from 50% to 23% and still going down. Isn't that good enough for you? Oh, right, you'd prefer 0%, like any good assimilated assimilationnist.

    "Can anyone live in English in the Saguenay or the Beauce regions"
    RE: Agree, regions are something else. Should they feel sorry for being the absolute majority? Again: quit your whining and choose from 59 other english states in north america. Leave Saguenay alone, they don't need you.

    "You have a real problem with Chinese people don't you?"
    RE: My everyday depanneur is Chinese, every day I teach them new french words,they appreciate it. In fact, I' have a "real problem" if I was an anglo canadian, because Chinese are taking over the country.

    Ok I admit, when I'm really fed up I'll move to a place, say France or a latino country, where people really have pride and dignity and don't have to deal with fat racist whiners as canucks, especially allos, prove to be.

    "And the Chinese don't have their very own province"
    RE: Hardly; check BC in a near future.

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  17. @Anonymous
    "The Anglophone community contributed a great deal to the building of Quebec."
    RE: Sure, for the profits of anglos leading minority. Until the majority nation stood up for their rights.

    "One third of the population of New Brunswick are French speaking Acadians and the province is officially bilingual."
    RE: They once were almost totally french. Then they were DEPORTED EN MASSE by Bloody Queen with help from their "canadian friends". It took 200 years for them to get official apologies, just when it was too late. Hypocrits.

    "How are they being oppressed or ssimilated?"
    RE: By many ways. Do your homework.

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  18. Pilule,

    Why should I leave. WE paid our taxes and we put in more then we got out, even when we leave Quebec, the franco chauvanist parasites still take our money through equalization. I rather partition Quebec and let Quebec separate minus all of Northern Quebec.

    Pilule actually New Brunswick and the rest of canada once were totally native, so whats your point. Franco Chauvanists love to blank out history that pops their little ethno centric version of history. Pilule types love to cut and paste history and love to ignore and not respond when confronted.

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  19. Pilule of course the chinese guy appreciates it, he learns some French for free while you pay him to buy stuff from his store. While in inside his head he must be thinking, thanks you parasite.

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  20. "(exemple le ghetto chinois de Montréal) où chaque ethnie peut s’accroître en nombre constant et y vivre en vase clos, "

    What the bloody hell are all these silly and girlish little squiggles covering these poor letters of the Roman alphabet? Some form of robot talk? Spanish slang? New aged Internet speak?

    I think there's some kind of technical glitch because I can't for the life of me make sense of this gibberish on screen.

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  21. "...we put in more then we got out..."

    Comme tout le monde!

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  22. @ Press 9,

    "...we put in more then we got out..."

    "Comme tout le monde!"

    Quebec hasn't been putting in more than it is getting out of Canada. It has been a parasite leeching money out of Canada for decades.

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  23. @ Pilule,

    Montreal has a Chinatown like most other major cities around the world. It adds cultural diversity and flavour to the city. But only in Montreal have the Chinese merchants been harassed by the language police for the presence and size of the Chinese characters on their store signs. This story even made it onto the "Sixty Minutes" TV show in the U.S. This has nothing to do with "protecting and defending" the Quebecois language and culture but with oppressing and eliminating other languages and cultures. In Quebec, we have racists like the Vigile nuts and yourself complaining about the so-called Chinese "ghetto" like it was some kind of plague.

    If your everyday Chinese depanneur knew how you felt about his people he would absolutely despise you and would probably ban you from his store.

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  24. @ Pilule,

    "RE: I meant that francos in Canada might be staying there because they prefer to stick to the ANGLO majority, like any good sheep."

    Very nice of you to refer to your Francophone cousins in other provinces as "sheep."

    The Francos in other provinces are not moving to Quebec in large numbers because:
    1) they know they are looked down upon by many Quebecois, such as yourself.
    2) they are treated fairly well. There are NO restrictions on their language or culture, as is the case with Anglos in Quebec.
    3) they don't want to live in a shit-hole like Quebec, with its deteriorating economy, massive debt load and decaying infrastructure.

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  25. @ Pilule,

    "RE: Until first election of independentist Parti Québécois in 1976. They left (thank God!) For two reasons: 1. They FEARED they'd have to learn french (they didn't have to (ethnocentric chickens)"

    Many Anglos left because they didn't want to be part of a possibly sovereign Quebec, which would undoubtedly remove even more of their rights. After all, zealots like Pierre Curzi have said that Anglos in a sovereign Quebec shouldn't even be allowed to vote.

    Hundreds of companies had the good sense to move out of Quebec after the PQ was first elected, and many Anglos kept their jobs by leaving with these companies.

    "RE: Quebec motto is "Je me souviens", and you damn right we do remember, for example the 1982 treason from Trudeau"

    The real traitors, then as now, are the leaders of the Parti Quebecois (and the Bloc). They should all be stripped of their Canadian citizenship and deported from the country.

    "...with YOUR Bloody Queen."

    She's your queen too. The French inhabitants of Quebec swore allegiance to the British crown in the 1700's. Next time you buy something, look for her picture on your money. The queen's grandson and his beautiful new wife will be visiting you in a few months.

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